How is this for a statistic!

[Colin]

Bayes Thanks for your answer . Colin

[Spike!]

>>It is a game of independent trials, therefore any progression or any betting strategy that uses more than one spin looking for the same result to come is just an example of gamblers fallacy.>>

Exactly. Roulette resets itself after every spin. The only way to beat it is to have some idea whats coming next and make a guess. Mechanical systems and progressions are doomed because the casino has the edge, not you.

[sherminator]

You don't have to be right all the time, in fact you can be wrong a little bit more than you are right and still break even or come out slightly ahead with no progressions and just flat betting, how's that for a neat trick.

[Spike!]

You are not going to always win in one spin.>>>

How many spins do they let you bet on in your casino? In mine they only let me bet on the next spin. I asked if I could bet on the next 10 spins all at once and they said no. So I only worry about the next spin. When you use a progression, you are, in a sense, betting on the next several spins. This can be very dangerous because its hard enough to be right about just 1 spin, if you're wrong about the next several, you're really screwed.

[dhoola]

Here lot of people talk about  money management, long term, quitting ahead. . .

When the game itself is designed to be random. . .  what's this long term or quitting ahead? Next spin can be a winner or a loser. . . .

Remember the guy who put some $100,000 on one bet. . .  can we go to him and ask for long term test, I don't think so. . .

So I will just say "All in the game". . .  Go and play the game as you like. . .  If possible understand randomness and go ahead. . .  if not, it is not a crime. . .  Enjoy playing roulette. . . .

[Spike!]

But the fact remains that you could just as easily bet once for a trend to end, then look for another trend to bet against.>>>

Why do all that work when you have a trend right in front of you that you can only lose once on and possibly have a string of wins on? Betting against the trend you have ONLY one win possible. Betting with it, you never know how many more it will go.

[You can win]

@ SPIKE
Yes, if you see 10 reds in a row you're always better off betting for it to continue, you can only lose once.  But I've gotten in huge arguments where they always say 'the odds of it ending are the same', so bet for it to end.  No, YOU do that, I only want to lose once

The real answer is the chances that you pick the right time to change is not on your side. So it's not true the odds are not the same.

Here is why it could go to 32 reds but only ten came out so there are many more ways for the next spin to be RED so the odds are not the same.  I hope this helps.

You can win

[Spike!]

But I've gotten in huge arguments where they always say 'the odds of it ending are the same'>>>

They are exactly the same. But that doesn't mean betting for it to continue isn't a better bet.

[Noble Savage]

Why do all that work when you have a trend right in front of you that you can only lose once on and possibly have a string of wins on? Betting against the trend you have ONLY one win possible. Betting with it, you never know how many more it will go.

If that did give any edge we'd all be swimming in cash already.

Look into the law of series and you might find out why what you're saying is pure fallacy, just like thinking the earth is flat (just because it looks so from your limited visual perspective) is a fallacy.

[You can win]

@ Spike
I will put it another way. If I was to bet you $100. 00 for you to pick the right time for it to change for any long run's of any color you would lose more often then you would win.  . No one can pick the time it will change more often then when it really does change
I hope this helps
You can win

[Noble Savage]

@ Spike
I will put it another way. If I was to bet you $100. 00 for you to pick the right time for it to change for any long run's of any color you would lose more often then you would win.  . No one can pick the time it will change more often then when it really does change
I hope this helps
You can win

I've explained that numerous times.

It's 2010 yet some people still believe in that John Patrick BS. Follow the trend, discipline, money management, quitting while you're ahead...

Oh well.

[Spike!]

If that did give any edge we'd all be swimming in cash already.>>>

I never said it gives an edge or beats the law of series. It doesn't. I'm just saying for that particular series at that time, betting to continue is a better bet. The odds aren't better, the probability isn't better. Its a betting strategy, which is always better than none.

[You can win]

@ Spike
Yet another way.
So you are saying that you can pick when the color will change more times right then wrong . So if you think about it in real life it can't be done by using a flat bet the odds state that it can't be done.
So the answer I gave is right stay with the color but only one then get off.

You can win

[Spike!]

So you are saying that you can pick when the color will change more times right then wrong>>>

Never said that either. All I said was, to a trender, its a better bet. Trending is an art form that takes years to master because there are no hard and fast rules.

[You can win]

@ Spike
So you are saying that you can pick when the color will change more times right then wrong>>>

Never said that either.  All I said was, to a trender, its a better bet.  Trending is an art form that takes years to master because there are no hard and fast rules.

Yes I know you didn't say that I was only saying I'm right because you can't pick the exact time when it will change you would lose more often the you would win because it can go much higher then ten. There for the odds are on your side.

You can win

[You can win]

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