If Progressions Don't Beat the House Edge, What Good Are They?

[Bayes]

The maths says a lot of things. It says that ultimately, after many thousands of plays, you are more likely to lose than win, but that doesn't there aren't choices you can make which will minimize the chance of that happening. Take a simple example: Someone setting foot in a casino for the first time with $100 in his pocket decides to try his luck at roulette. Is it a good plan to put the entire $100 on a single number? or to divide the $100 into $1 chips and play the number 100 times? maths can give you answers, taking into account your personal preferences.

[Spike!]

It says that ultimately, after many thousands of plays, you are more likely to lose than win>>>

C'mon, it says a heck of a lot more than that. It says bet selection is impossible, and without good bet selection, you're going to lose a heck of a lot quicker than 'after thousands of plays'.

[Number Six]

Mr J, sorry, but your point about experience is not very solid. It isn't useless, but nor do you have to play for 15 years in order to become a "better" player. As long as Bob has the disciplined ability to execute his long term gameplan (considering that he doesn't lose his BR), he may do just as well, or in fact, at some stages better than you.

Let's put it like this instead. Bob has never played any casino games in his life. He's seen a few movies about cards, that's the limit of his experience. His is quite intelligent and has an average understanding of maths. So, you give him three or four months to study roulette, systems and all the rest of it. Then you have a one year play-off, in which you both have to play at least 1000 spins a week. Who does better? From what I can gather you are saying you because no novice has the ability to stick to a plan. In truth, after a week, Bob would probably start to feel fairly comfortable with what he's doing.

[Mr J]

Those are estimates (examples per say). I am not saying 300 new players (Bob) compared to 300 players that have been playing for 15 years, both groups will always have different results? No, with YOUR example, you could be correct regarding Bob.  If I listed the stupid s**t I did when I was new, you would laugh for days and YES, it did cost me money. I no longer make those mistakes and I now NET more. Coincidence? Again, no. Ken

[Mr J]

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