Why Probability Does Not Matter

[gizmotron]

Do you know what a sine wave is?

If you play a balanced game then you can react to the conditions as they occur.

This is a sine wave:



You can play until you reach your goal, as long as your goal is well inside the normal deviations of your game.

Three losses followed by six wins gives you a simple three win goal as a result. With a three win goal you can become a millionaire with this technique. There is no reason that you must play all downturns until they take all your winnings. This is not a Martingale after all. 

[Mr J]

I believe its also known as the bell curve. I'll tell ya something that MOST here will NOT do. Whatever your method is......test it at home (not RX) and find what/when the AVERAGE of the peak (bell curve) is, in regards to profit before it (and it will) starts to tank. Find this average over hundreds, if not thousands of trials. Once you have it, subtract around 20% of that. Remember (or record) what/when that average is. Thats the info you take to the casino with you for THAT method. When you hit it, LEAVE. Most will not.  Ken

[Spike!]

If you play a balanced game then you can react to the conditions as they occur.>>

The game is constantly seeking to balance itself, its the nature of true random. Reacting correctly to unfolding conditions on a spin to spin basis takes patience and practice. Past spins tell you where it might be going.

[gizmotron]

I believe its also known as the bell curve. I'll tell ya something that MOST here will NOT do. Whatever your method is......test it at home (not RX) and find what/when the AVERAGE of the peak (bell curve) is, in regards to profit before it (and it will) starts to tank. Find this average over hundreds, if not thousands of trials. Once you have it, subtract around 20% of that. Remember (or record) what/when that average is. Thats the info you take to the casino with you for THAT method. When you hit it, LEAVE. Most will not.  Ken

Technically speaking the "bell curve" is a shape of the curve. The soft shoulder shape of the bell curve is a type of EQ effect where the location along the spectrum is altered with a soft curve. A noticeable difference would be the very sharp shape of the curve in a notch filter. This is useful for pulling 60 cycle hum out of some sound streams. If you look up information on parametric EQing you will see what I mean.

Regarding Roulette and sine waves I'm saying a balanced game will produce a short termed transition between a slight loss and a minimal win without much effort at all. The smart player takes notice of this simple effect.

[Mr J]

"Regarding Roulette and sine waves" >>> I wasn't sure if my 'bell curve' example would fit into your thread. The PURPOSE of a bell curve is to show a PEAK of a a method in terms of net wins. Of course, it does not have to be related to gambling. EVERY method has an average of WHEN this peak hits/ends, regardless of how small the profit or none at all.  Ken

[Steve]

Theory can be correct, even if only partially, but it's one thing. Putting a method into a defined algorithm is another thing. If anyone achieves long term success without a defined method, it is luck, precognition, subconscious telekinesis or combination. Wave within a wave within a wave - everything is. Nothing is impossible, except making 1 + 1 =3

[gizmotron]

Ken, a 'bell curve' does fit into this thread just fine. But what I'm saying is that in the sine wave for Roulette you have below the line and above the line too. The shape of the sine wave is more like a sine wave for alternating current.

[Mr J]

Got it and I Googled it. Ken

[Noble Savage]

The famous "bell curve" refers to the shape of the plot of the Probability density function associated with normal (Gaussian) distribution of random events.

@Mark:

"Waves" is a fun and interesting topic, I'm surprised not much people (trying to analyse/bet on randomness) seem to discuss it.

Back when I was into "educated guessing", I was very much into waves (wave analysis/reading/betting) but I never posted about it. Using a simple charting method I came up with, I would convert EC outcomes into waves, I would look at the overall "longer-term" wave in 30 to 60 spins, and then the "shorter-term" waves within that big/overall trend, and then the smallest waves. I looked for 2 types of waves: "Impulses", and "Corrections".

I defined an "impulse" as "a wave in the direction of the longer-term wave that it's on", and a "correction" as "an opposing wave correcting the impulse wave and going against the overall stream, I.e. the mother (longer-term) wave, but never completely reversing it. I would basically try to interpret and exploit what I see. I would keep an eye for reversals in the bigger waves (or what I called the temporary bias).

At one point I wrote an oscillator that does the tracking automatically as I wanted to spend less time on manual charting and more time on observing and, well, "guessing". The oscillator actually had 3 oscillators withing it (of different colors), one oscillator to detect and plot the big/bias waves, another oscillator with increased sensitivity to plot smaller waves, and another with even more sensitivity to plot the smallest waves. All in one oscillator that gives a pretty nice picture of what's going on. Something also worth mentioning is that, soon later, I noticed that, at times, there is a varying amount of "noise" (as I labeled it) which "distorts" an otherwise clear flow. I thought "this is what Spike must call the chaos". I tried to aknowledge and keep an eye for the "noise element" and tried to "de-noise" the data in my mind so I could see beyond the apparent chaos, when it happens.

Anyway, those were the tools, the rest was spending time with practice and manual testing. I did well, and as some friends of mine here (such as Bayes) know, I even started to preach about this "educated guessing".

It took some time for the whole thing to start to sink, my success was proven to be mostly due to some lucky positive fluctuation and partly to occasional unconscious curve-fitting while hand-testing.

The reality is that random outcomes do not generate a periodic sine wave (or any similar type of deterministic wave behavior). They do fluctuate, generating waves within waves within waves, but the length/duration/magnitude of the waves are completely random and non-deterministic. This means that no matter where you are in a wave, it can either go up or down regardless of what happened before. Previous behavior does not give any real clues to what is more likely to happen next (a reversal or a continuation). True random is true random. There is no way around it.

PS. This wasn't the only approach I used, but one of several approaches. But it was the last one before I decided to move on to AP and trading.

"If I am going to be fooled by randomness, it better be of the beautiful (and harmless) kind." - Nassim Taleb

[Mr J]

I wasn't asking.  Ken

[gizmotron]

Noble Savage, you probably missed the entire point. If you were looking for big swings in big wave forms then you would end up being disappointed. I'm looking for frequency pulsations that don't deviate from the larger sine waves  that do tend to even things out. There is a small balanced deviation based on balance and educated guessing. The small win is the key. That includes the small loss too. You mentioned the observation process and the tracking for that but you never mentioned bet selection much. The bet selection must come to a point that it out pases the statistical average. This is done by understanding change. A complete understanding of how randomness changes is completely necessary to achieve positive results. There is a difference between doing it and attempting wishful thinking. I'm suggesting that you didn't refine the bet selection process to a point that you were doing it to your advantage. I'm not going to say you gave up too soon. I'd suspect that you are not really done with your research.

[gizmotron]

The game is constantly seeking to balance itself, its the nature of true random. Reacting correctly to unfolding conditions on a spin to spin basis takes patience and practice. Past spins tell you where it might be going.

Spike has made it clear what works. "Past spins tell you where it might be going." The next spins confirm if you are correct or not. There is an entire game within the game inside of all of that. It takes playing experience to know when to go for it. You must know when it is going your way and when it is not.

[Spike!]

Previous behavior does not give any real clues to what is more likely to happen next>>

Its all in how you interpret the last spins.

>>"Past spins tell you where it might be going." The next spins confirm if you are correct or not.>>

The two are connected, like it or don't..

[Noble Savage]

@Mark, Thanks. I appreciate the openness. You're right I didn't say much about the actual bet selection process. My primary betting target was the smallest most immediate/short-term waves. As for the big ones, I only wanted to keep an eye on them just so I have an idea about the overall "temporary bias".

One of my favorite quotes is "Change is the only constant". My bet selection process was geared towards exploiting the short-term "oscillating" behavior of random outcomes. I didn't want to bet that the next spins will be black, or red; I simply wanted to bet that they will be random. I believed that is the only 100% sure information I have about the next spins, and I wanted to somehow enable my bet selection process to capitalize on such information using the short term characteristics of randomness.

This might not make sense (and I now do think it doesn't, lol) but with each bet decision, I would look at the waves and then ask myself "what is more random, if the next spin went up, or down?"

Anyway, it didn't work for me (and I moved on to other interesting things) but everyone has the right to experiment with this and drive his own conclusions based on his own experience.

[Spike!]

but with each bet decision, I would look at the waves and then ask myself "what is more random, if the next spin going up, or down?">>

Typical MathBoy, overthink everything.

[Spike!]

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