Probability Is Just a Form of Educated Guessing

[Spike!]

Here are some definitions of probability: (regarding the next spin)

a. The likelihood that a given event will occur

b. The chance that a given event will occur

c. Draws conclusions about the likelihood of potential events

d. Deals with calculating the likelihood of a given event's occurrence

e. Probability is the chance that something will happen - how likely it is that some event will happen.

f. Likelihood (chance) of the occurrence of an event

And so on. The key word here is 'liklihood'. Not certainty, liklihood. It might, it might not, but it probably will. And this doesn't apply to the next spin, but to thousands and milliions of spins. Nothing applies to the next spin. The probability as to the outcome of the next spin comes down to an educated guess, nothing more.

How nice..

[mistarlupo]

The key word here is 'liklihood'. Not certainty, liklihood. It might, it might not, but it probably will.

Yes, we call it 'likelihood' because [for those of us who do not possess supernatural guessing skills] it is something that deals with random events. If these events were certain, randomness wouldn't exist. Anyway, congratulations, good job! You found a science/theory/whatever which is better than probability. Forget casinos, write a book, you'll be a legend.

[Spike!]

If these events were certain,>>>

But they're NOT certain, are they. Probability doesn't deal with certainty at all. It deals with maybe, likely, should be, if you just play long enough. It never ever deals with the next spin or even the next 10 spins. Probability can have no opinion on so few outcomes. Probability can have no influemce or opinion whatever if you play a strategy that starts anew on every spin. For that kind of method, probability is useless.

[Spike!]

There's no Law of Probability, no Force of Probability, there's nothing driving probability. It has no substance beyond describing the inconsistency between a game's potential results and its real results.  If probability theory can't be applied to the real play of one person over an hour, how can it be applied to the real play of anyone or everyone over any amount of time.

[Noble Savage]

Forget casinos, write a book, you'll be a legend.

Nah, forget about making millions traveling and playing, and forget about writing a book. Posting in forums about it is better, right Spike?

Good job sir!
Everyone of us believes you.
Talking about it doesn't make money, but who needs money when you have VLS!

Rest assured:
Everyone of us believes you.
All roulette discussion should stay centered upon you and educated guessing.
Let the roulette wisdom shine upon us all!

[Spike!]

So Noble Savage, you agree with this then? "If probability theory can't be applied to the real play of one person over an hour, how can it be applied to the real play of anyone or everyone over any amount of time."

You didn't dispute it because you can't.

[Bayes]

Spike,

What's needed is less guessing, more education. Your posts are often so contradictory and nonsensical that it takes a while to figure out what you're actually trying to say. First you say that probability can say nothing about future outcomes (unless you're talking about an infinite number of them), now you say that probability is educated guessing. That would be great if it weren't for the fact that you claim that using EG results in winning at least 7 bets out of 10.

Hypothesis: This is an educated guess based upon observation. It is a rational explanation of a single event or phenomenon based upon what is observed, but which has not been proved. Most hypotheses can be supported or refuted by experimentation or continued observation.

So strictly speaking,  your 'educated guessing' doesn't even qualify as a hypothesis because it's not rational. Past spins are independent of future spins...  

Theory: A theory is more like a scientific law than a hypothesis. A theory is an explanation of a set of related observations or events based upon proven hypotheses and verified multiple times by detached groups of researchers. One scientist cannot create a theory; he can only create a hypothesis.

So your 'educated guessing' is more like a hypothesis, and it has not been proved. On the other hand probability theory has been verified multiple times by detached observers.

Source.

[Spike!]

On the other hand probability theory has been verified multiple times>>>

Probability theory is wishy washy, its not exact. Its big on expectation down the road, but meaningless for the next spin or 10 spins or 100 spins. So its wonderful for the long termers, but useless for the player. Its foggy and full of holes. By playing the same game the wheel is playing, PT has no meaning whatsoever..

[Jakkalsdraai]

YYYAAAAAAAAAAAAWWWWWNNNNNNN!!!!!!!! 

[Bayes]

Probability theory is wishy washy, its not exact. Its big on expectation down the road, but meaningless for the next spin or 10 spins or 100 spins. So its wonderful for the long termers, but useless for the player. Its foggy and full of holes. By playing the same game the wheel is playing, PT has no meaning whatsoever..

So if probability theory is useless to the player, and EG is so great, how can PT be a form of EG?

What's missing from PT that you find in EG?

[gizmotron]

Great! Now the Mathboyz can read the characteristics of probability.

Like Herb always says: just another gambler's fallacy.

[Spike!]

how can PT be a form of EG?>>

Ask probability what the outcome of the next spin is, and it has no idea. So what good is it? Its just a form of educated guessing, except its broad in its terms.  Probability can only "suggest" certain things because the theory has been rigged to suggest those things. The EG I use is much more exact and accurate.

[Herb6]

Spike,

Remember, the reason that you don't understand is because you're not a "mathboy".  You have already proclaimed that you're iGnOrANt.

[Spike!]

the reason that you don't understand>>

But gosh, Herbie, I do understand. You think if you keep saying I don't understand long enough, that means I don't. You do that with everything. You just repeat the same nonsense statements over and over and over. You sound like a parrot.

[Noble Savage]

Ask probability what the outcome of the next spin is, and it has no idea. So what good is it? Its just a form of educated guessing

...what?

Either you're really "not smart", or you're deliberately and utterly twisting the facts to fit your own "Educated Guessing" charade.

Either way, YAWN.


PS. Is it just me or is Spike really fighting hard these days? He no longer uses that "believe it or leave it, I don't care", but desperately tries hard instead.  This whole EG act is truly collapsing.

[Noble Savage]

-