Past numbers have *NOTHING* to do with future events?

[Kelly]

I have no clue what that exception might be. Phrases like conditional probability does NOT fit in under roulette  because you are supposed to have some knowledge of an earlyer outcome that now has no chance of reappearing like if the ace of spades has been drawn and cannot again come into play.  Just because number 5 came out last it doesn`t mean that it cannot appear again.

[Herb6]

I don't know if we should attempt to enlighten Ken or if we should just leave him naive.

[Mr J]

I'm a bit lost Kelly. Do you agree or disagree with me? >>> 30 groups of 38 numbers. After tracking 25 numbers, I will pick what 3 numbers I want to hopefully have 3 hits on it in the NEXT 13 spins. I will also pick YOUR 3 numbers as well for the next 13 spins, to see if they get 3 hits on them. Is this a FAIR challenge in your opinion?  Ken

[Mr J]

Now up to 5 posts from Herb/Keyser. Not answering, just trolling around. Do I hear 6? lol Will you answer the same question I asked Kelly or are you gonna wait for his answer first?  Ken

[Herb6]

In the random game of roulette, past spins don't matter a bit.

In the real game, on a real wheel, the placement of the previous number hit can matter.

In the real game, on a defective wheel, previous spins can indicate a potential problem with the gaming device via a goodness of fitness test like chi square.



However, in Ken's world past spins don't matter a bit.

[Mr J]

Just so I got this in case I need to (and I will) QUOTE you in the future.....I'm not talking about defective wheels, so thats out. "the placement of the previous number hit can matter" >>> Ohhh, NOW it can matter? lol Do not ask me to search though hundreds of posts. How many damn times have I posted 'whatever' and you have said that PAST NUMBERS MEAN NOTHING for future events? Are you saying that you *NEVER* one time, said that to me OR other method players? You are lying through your teeth Keyser/Herb. Chalk up another one...wants to have it both ways. This is how some of these guys operate. Their opinion CHANGES depending on the thread topic. Ken

[Herb6]

1. First off, your question is so vague and incoherent that most people can't make sense of your question.

2. Secondly, the various answers possible are simply too complex for a new player like yourself to comprehend,
since you clearly don't grasp even basic probability or gambler's fallacy.

3. Most of us simply don't like you on the math forum because you act like a disrespectful street punk.

4. Basic logic eludes you.

[Mr J]

This is Herbs way of dodging questions....all smoke and mirrors. The question was asked PERFECTLY multiple times, nothing vague about it, nice try skippy.  You just answered it a few minutes ago so does that mean you STILL dont understand it or did you change your mind again? lol People HATE the questions when I CORNER them. I catch them off guard. I catch them being inconsistent, like yourself as an example. You never answered my question >>  How many damn times have I posted 'whatever' and you have said that PAST NUMBERS MEAN NOTHING for future events? Are you saying that you *NEVER* one time, said that to me OR other method players? <<<< Simple question Herb.

[Mr J]

Its funny how some will only debate the people they dont like, they pick and choose, like Herb does. This is from boymimbo (Wizards site) >> "it's true. In roulette, past performance has nothing to do with future results. What science or mathematics proves that it does?

  If the number has hit twice in the last 25 times, the odds that it will hit in the next 13 spins is 1-(37/38)^13 = .292974.

If the number has hit 24 times in the last 25 spins, the odds that it will hit on the next spin is still 1/38."

Another member, MathExtremist ALSO agrees with this. I do not but thats not my question. My question is.....of all the posters that are slamming me there, how come NOT ONE (Herb included) are telling MathExtremist and boymimbo they are wrong? Not one post from others. lol Hmm. Thats your new question Herb (he won't answer it) how come I see no posts from you directed towards these two other members, ONLY ME? A little bias are we? I think I now understand why people use different user names. They can change their views as many times as they want, just like a coward would do. Ken

[Kelly]

Well, im lost too. What is the exact question, no emballage so to speak.

[Mr J]

OMG, theme of the day, hang on.....

[Mr J]

@Kelly >> 30 groups of 38 numbers. After tracking 25 numbers, I will pick what 3 numbers I want to hopefully have 3 hits on it in the NEXT 13 spins. I will also pick YOUR 3 numbers as well for the next 13 spins, to see if they get 3 hits on them. Is this a FAIR challenge in your opinion? If no, why? We would do the challenge 30 times. At the end, would it be around the same in terms of which set of numbers have MORE hits on them? The numbers I choose for you OR  my chosen numbers?  Ken

[Kelly]

Fair enough, in such a small sample we are not likely to end up 15/15 though. But in the long run, yes.

[Mr J]

It does not have to be 15/15 exact. 13/17 is close enough. What would the long run be? Do you agree with this Herb? He usually waits FIRST to see what you posted. Kelly....if you dont think it would be 15/15 (or even 13/17), why? Would I have an ADVANTAGE over you because I picked your 3 numbers? If yes, how can that be?  Ken

[Kelly]

My numbers would be 1, 2, 3.  The reason we probably wouldn`t break even is because there are fluctations in the way our chosen numbers hit.  I might be the luckyiest for the 30 runs, but it might as well be you. At some point we will start to break even. Im not sure how many spins we would need as we would only be guessiong for 12 trials X 30 runs. which is 360 spins. Anything could basicly happen.

[Kelly]

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