Gambler's Paradox..???

[cilxeskyd]

It never ceases to amaze me how often I hear the words:

"Gambler's Fallacy", thrown around on roulette forums.  

Of course you will all have heard this 'fact' ad nauseam, namely that:

"No event IS ever due.."

However, What you perhaps wont be aware of is the equally important:

"Gambler's Paradox"   (copyright 2010 (c) Dyksexlic Inc.     All Rights Reserved.  )

The gambler's paradox clearly states that -

"All events ARE always due..!"

In other words, all events are equally due to appear,

Just as all events are equally due NOT to appear.  



Take your time.  

[Mike]

Actually, I agree, all events are due, what you don't know (and can't ever know) is WHEN they are due. That's the true meaning of the gambler's fallacy.

It seems to be a paradox that probability predicts that all numbers, streets, dozens, whatever will hit within certain boundaries, and yet nothing is ever due. The paradox disappears when you realise that probability works within the 'long-run' framework. It doesn't work in the time you're actually at the tables, there is no return to balance that you can take advantage of in the short term. Events have all the time in the world to 'catch up', and in the meantime the house edge is nibbling away at your profits.

You have to get an edge to win, math and statistics don't give you an edge. But they work wonders AFTER the event.

[Mr J]

The 'due' debate. Thats why I made a list of posters in the last two weeks for a quick reference guide. Thats also why I ask SPECIFIC questions GEARED towards due or not due. It sends me off a cliff.... some examples, '2 hit numbers will turn into 3 hit numbers, its due'. A month later, same poster, different topic....'nothing is ever due in ANY MANNER, regardless of the past'. Christ almighty, pick and choose ONE please!  Ken

[Herb6]

Mr. J.

It's because you're not comprehending what people are saying.

[TicTacToe]

"All events ARE always due..!"

Just as all events are equally due NOT to appear.

I say that Gambler's Paradox does exist.

Here's my proof.


Looking back a few years ago we had a member called Dyksexlic who caused quite a stir.

Some loved him but most despised him cuz of his arrogance.

He was banned and told not to retrun.

Looking at the Paradox which states he could return as well as not return.


Well guess what .... he's returned.


Hence the Paradox is true.


Now if playing roulette were so easy.


TTT

[Mr J]

"It's because you're not comprehending what people are saying" >>> Wrong answer Herb. You can not say numbers are DUE in one situation but in another sentence say....numbers are NEVER due under any circumstance. You cant have both.  Ken

[Steve]

Every spin outcome is simply cause and effect. By understanding the relationship between cause and effect, you can predict spin outcomes, often with enough accuracy to overcome the unfair payouts (house edge).

Nothing is "due" as in there is a sequence of events to unfold, unless you look at the alignment of variables which ultimately determine where the ball lands. It's like saying you can drop a ball, and because of gravity, it is DUE to fall. Sure it will fall, and the cause is gravity. The effect is the falling of the ball.

Nothing happens without a reason, or more accurately without "cause". Nothing is ever random - there is always an element of predictability. It's more a question of whether or not you can use the available data to forecast spin results.

[bombus]

A number that has hit twice is due to hit a third time, but it might not hit for 100 spins or more, and another number that had not hit at all might hit three times in a row and overtake your selected number. And your number that had hit twice might have hit once just before you arrived so it had already hit 3 times when you thought it had only hit twice, so on and so on.

The only thing that is due is everything, hence the paradox holds true, and is unbettable.

[Steve]

If you plugged the probability of an event into an equation to forecast the frequency at which an event occurs, with any non-zero probability, an event will occur if the time is unlimited. We just dont know WHEN it will occur. I guess that's just the mathematical way of saying what you just said Bombus.

The problem is can we predict what event and when an event will occur. We can on the real wheel - there are many methods that do this.

But as for a completely different approach, I still believe information such as nolinks.genuinewinner.com/waves.pdf or precognition is the best direction. Players try all kinds of things with progression when it doesnt help at all. And they try to figure out and work with patterns that dont exist. At least what I've mentioned here it nuts and bolts. But it's just not as easy to do. If people focused on trying new things rather than the same old junk, more progress would be made. But saying that over years proved to be like beating a dead horse.

[Herb6]

Mr. J,

I can't tell if you're being mentally lazy or if you're just trying to be contrary.

[Mr J]

  So after reading 2,000 of my posts, you dont know 'which side' I'm on? Now, who is the LAZY member here?    Ken

[Steve]

Wow the sexual tension between you two is immense.. just get it on and get it over with

[Mr J]

(not starting crap)....He gets mad NOT because I play methods but because I talk about playing methods, big difference. When I talk, the AP word gets a little less attention and for some odd reason (which I still have not figured out) that bugs the guy. People can talk smack all day long about playing methods, I lose nothing.  Ken

[Steve]

You guys dont need to like each other but you dont need to be in constant conflict.

[Herb6]

Mr. J is obsessed with me.    

[Herb6]

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