Gambler's Fallacy vs Even Distribution

[gizmotron]

Is it not possible to change you ISP?

Sounds like your current one is a pain in the arse anyway...

When this one is working I can download Youtube videos. My only other option is a satellite system that costs more or dial-up that is just almost worthless. This system started out on one T-1 line. It then went to three T-1 lines. Soon it will be on seven T-1 lines. Ever since it went to three T-1 line my connection has been more reliable. This is what you get when you live in the country. I'm just outside the range of all the G3 and G4 cell phone lines too. I did have a better than dial-up cell modem for my laptop for a few years. But that costs more too. And it's temperamental way out here too. So that's the facts.

[MauiSunset]

You watch a Roulette wheel all day long and in the last 50 spins Red has come up only 10 times, 40 Blacks showed up.  You sit down and are ready to bet Red (or Black):

The pit boss replaces the wheel with another wheel and balances it - does this change anything? MAYBE (IF IT WAS BIAS)

The fire alarm goes off and everyone runs outside and 1 hour later everyone comes back - does this change anything?NO

The white ball is replaced with another one - does this change anything?NO

Now if you believe in past history favoring one color over the other you can't bet - and why???

it also depends how it came up (the colours, how they appeared, if you got 10 black then it changes to red) well it dose matter but when to bet is the challenge and thats why colours will never win

Folks who view the marquee or keep track of past spins are keeping track of what?  The equipment that generated those numbers, like the Roulette wheel, ball, dealer, or some cosmic happenstance that allows for all kinds of changes in equipment?

That's what I don't understand?  On a Roulette machine or internet casino the RNG can work several ways 1) it constantly spits out numbers and stops when an event occurs, like a button pressed or a mouse click and 2) it increments ONLY with an external event like a button.

How do you know which you have?

Just seems like folks who believe in past history are tied to equipment of all kinds.....

[MauiSunset]

When this one is working I can download Youtube videos. My only other option is a satellite system that costs more or dial-up that is just almost worthless. This system started out on one T-1 line. It then went to three T-1 lines. Soon it will be on seven T-1 lines. Ever since it went to three T-1 line my connection has been more reliable. This is what you get when you live in the country. I'm just outside the range of all the G3 and G4 cell phone lines too. I did have a better than dial-up cell modem for my laptop for a few years. But that costs more too. And it's temperamental way out here too. So that's the facts.

I just find it very hard to believe that someone who can crack Roulette is hamstrung by a simple internet setup.

Go to the nearest public library - they have PCs and high speed internet and you can be up and running in a minute.

I know they filter out porn sites but maybe they allow gambling sites - who knows?

I'm losing confidence here...........

[John Gold]

I know they filter out porn sites but maybe they allow gambling sites - who knows?

[/quote]

Yeah, it's a shame. I like to get away from gambling sites once in a while! 

[birdhands]

I asked these questions before but I'll ask them again - since no one answered them last time:

You watch a Roulette wheel all day long and in the last 50 spins Red has come up only 10 times, 40 Blacks showed up.  You sit down and are ready to bet Red (or Black):

The pit boss replaces the wheel with another wheel and balances it - does this change anything?

The fire alarm goes off and everyone runs outside and 1 hour later everyone comes back - does this change anything?

The white ball is replaced with another one - does this change anything?

Now if you believe in past history favoring one color over the other you can't bet - and why???

I believe, and I emphasize the word believe, that these scenarios change nothing when I'm betting in a way that does not utilize past spins as a determinant factor.  However, if I am betting on what I expect to occur based on the past 20 or so spins, these scenarios would prompt me to track another 20 spins before resuming my bets. 

Sam

[gizmotron]

Mr.  Gizmotron, what is your email address?

Why bother. This is your M.O. for email spamming.

[MauiSunset]

I believe, and I emphasize the word believe, that these scenarios change nothing when I'm betting in a way that does not utilize past spins as a determinant factor.  However, if I am betting on what I expect to occur based on the past 20 or so spins, these scenarios would prompt me to track another 20 spins before resuming my bets. 

Sam

Sounds like you believe the equipment has some influence in the random numbers generated - correct?

So how does the equipment influence the number spun?  What about RNGs?

[col1879]

*****************What is the most important thing to know what to do if you use trends when playing Roulette?*****************

Guess no2- To start betting when a winning one begins
Guess no3- Something to do with clusters

[birdhands]

   

Sounds like you believe the equipment has some influence in the random numbers generated - correct?

So how does the equipment influence the number spun?  What about RNGs?

I don't know how or even if the equipment influences the number spun.   I would retrack just in case certain ball sizes or wheels are different from one another in their performance.  But again, that's half caution, half paranoia, and probably half wishful thinking.

Sam

[col1879]

********************But again, that's half caution, half paranoia, and probably half wishful thinking.***********************

Ok, maybe you are better at English grammar but I am better at Maths!

[col1879]

******************************
In summary can be said that in a roulette-permanence the sum of isolated series, i.e. not connected (clustered), is equal the sum of clusters of series. There are as many clusters of 2 series as clusters of more than 2 series and so forth. This law of appearance is valid for singles and series.The law of distribution of clusters of series is equal to the law of distribution of clusters of singles!
******************************

There are as many BRB and RBR as there are BRRRRRRRRRB and RBBBBBBBBBR?

I never doubted that!

[col1879]

******************************
Its the lenght of the streak that makes the probability smaller.  It has nothing to do with the appearences in the streak.
******************************

So it doesn't matter if it's BRB + BRRRB + BRRB + BRRRRRRRRRB + BRB + BRRB + BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRB etc

What does matter? If it's BRB + BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRB + BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRB + BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRB + BRB?

[Kelly]

Sorry col  but there are qute a few things you have mixed up.

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So it doesn't matter if it's BRB + BRRRB + BRRB + BRRRRRRRRRB + BRB + BRRB + BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRB etc

What does matter? If it's BRB + BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRB + BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRB + BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRB + BRB?
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As long as its the same total amount of spin in each sample, it doesnt matter how it looks like.



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There are as many BRB and RBR as there are BRRRRRRRRRB and RBBBBBBBBBR?
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No there is not, you compare apples and pears. BRB id a cluster/serie of 3.
BRRRRRRRRRB is a cluster/serie of 11 which has lower probability and as such is not happening so often as a cluster of 3. Read the "law of the series" in the basic links i posted,

[col1879]

**********As long as its the same total amount of spin in each sample, it doesn't matter how it looks like.****************

In a small sample of 64 spins are we more likely to see clusters of 1,2,3,4 rather than clusters of eg 12? In larger samples (eg 100,000) they all appear equally?

And lots of small samples all add up to one large sample?

[acer925]

Can some math whiz please explain to me how it's gambler's fallacy to expect red after 20 blacks when red and black are always moving toward an even distribution?

I didnt read the comments but I think I know the answer to this.  I think its gamblers fallacy b/c even after 20 blacks, that is too small of a sample to expect even distribution to play a factor.  Whos to say before the 20 blacks there weren't 25 reds? Or what about the day before you saw 20 blacks, red came out 20 more times than black did.  The thing is you cannot see even distribution unless you were tracking it from the start of the very first spin.  Even then, even distribution is not guaranteed.  A wheel spun over a lifetime *should be near 50/50 but it doesnt have to be.  It could be 60/40. 

[acer925]

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