Past numbers mean NOTHING? Part 2

[Mr J]

I thought of this while reading at another board. Its a GREAT question to ponder. Some won't answer because of feelings, they may sound inconsistent with previous or future postings. No worries, its not a contest guys. Hot numbers? Cold numbers? Most claim they mean nothing, perhaps.


>>>> I'll track the last 350 numbers but I will especially look at the last 25 that hit.

I will pick 5 numbers for you, I will go ALL THE WAY back and find 5 that have not hit, those are your 5. (its all flat betting)

I will pick 5 for myself, choosing 5 that have hit twice within the last 25 spins. I'll even UP the question. Within those 25, no numbers have three hits on them YET.

Is this still fair? Remember, no more RACE for a number to have three hits on it like I had asked a few months back. We are both starting out 0-0 with 13 spins left (38 total). We would do this over hundreds of trials.

At the end, we should finish around the same, correct? Not spot on perfect but around the same? This is not a challenge in any form but only a question. People can not have it both ways with their view regarding PAST numbers mean nothing. BTW, no, its not a tilted wheel, lol.

Well.....thoughts?

Ken

[Mr J]

I should be more specific. The question is really only for those who feel that past numbers are useless. If you dont feel they are useless, no real need to answer.

Ken

[MauiSunset]

If I flip a coin 100 times and 95 of them are Heads with 5 Tails scattered among the 100, what would you bet your $5 on for the 101st flip?

Many would answer $5 on Head; go with the trend.

Many would answer $5 on Tails; the trend is way overdo for a change.

Now if I confessed that after flip #50 I switched coins would that make any difference to the bet?

If after flip #50 I stopped for 10 years and then resumed the next 50 flips and then wait 10 more years before I do flip #101 - would that make any difference to the bet?  If you don't like years substitute 10 minutes between each 50 flips - would that make any difference to the bet?

The correct answer is that flip #101 is 50% chance of Heads and 50% chance of Tails.

Why?

Because the 100 coin flips were ALL random and past history has NO impact on future events.  If it did that means the coin(s) would have to have a memory and realize that it must now produce 95 Tails and 5 Heads in flip #101 - 200.  If not the coin, then who remembers the past flips?  God?

Coins have no memory, neither do dice, nor a roulette wheel.  Cards do have sort of a memory in that counting the cards in a one deck Blackjack does give you a small advantage and the reason casinos went to 6 deck shoes and the machines did the same with some going to reshuffle after each hand.

Past random outcomes mean nothing to future random events; that's why they are called random.

Our biggest problem, as gamblers, is finding "insight" where there is none - no matter how many past patterns you "see" in past random events they do NOT carry forward.

There's a radio commercial where a guy is in a psychiatrists office and takes a Rorschach ink blot test  and sees Rightbrand bacon in every picture - a bacon volcano, a bacon lollipop - bacon in every ink blot picture.

So don't see bacon where there's really just BS......

P.S.
If coins, cards, dice, and roulette wheels have memories, and you don't know what they are, how do you get rid of past events and start from scratch?  With cards it's easy - just shuffle them.

But how do you wipe out the past history of a coin?  Burn it red hot until it forgets?

How about that roulette wheel?  It's been pumping out numbers for years - how do you get rid if it's memory?  Beat it up a little?

If this all sounds crazy - well it is.............

[pins]

past spins have a meaning. its unlikely the ball will land in the same place twice.
if you study 10.000 spins. you will find that the same numbers appear close to one another. this gives you a edge. as when you see certain numbers you know that the other number will play soon..

[bombus]

I thought of this while reading at another board. Its a GREAT question to ponder. Some won't answer because of feelings, they may sound inconsistent with previous or future postings. No worries, its not a contest guys. Hot numbers? Cold numbers? Most claim they mean nothing, perhaps.


>>>> I'll track the last 350 numbers but I will especially look at the last 25 that hit.

I will pick 5 numbers for you, I will go ALL THE WAY back and find 5 that have not hit, those are your 5. (its all flat betting)

I will pick 5 for myself, choosing 5 that have hit twice within the last 25 spins. I'll even UP the question. Within those 25, no numbers have three hits on them YET.

Is this still fair? Remember, no more RACE for a number to have three hits on it like I had asked a few months back. We are both starting out 0-0 with 13 spins left (38 total). We would do this over hundreds of trials.

At the end, we should finish around the same, correct? Not spot on perfect but around the same? This is not a challenge in any form but only a question. People can not have it both ways with their view regarding PAST numbers mean nothing. BTW, no, its not a tilted wheel, lol.

Well.....thoughts?

Ken

Over hundreds of trials we might get a winner; it could be you, or it could be me. Because sometimes the hot numbers are tipping toward going cold, and sometimes the cold numbers are tipping toward getting hot. I imagine that balancing act would be very consistant.

Over thousands of trials if we had a winner at all it would be very close, too close to be of any statistical relevance.

I think I'm saying past spins have no effect on future spins. They do however have a huge effect on how we as gamblers organize our bets.

If past spins did have any bearing on future spins it would likely be existing courtesy of some brief yet complex physical anomalies currently manifesting itself through bias on the wheel in question. This is a distinct possibility, and I have always maintained that some systems can have the capacity to inherently fold into, or blend with the current bias albeit briefly.

Let me ask a few questions, it's a bit of a Monty Hall Problem...

On the wheel we have 3 Dozens. If Doz1 hits, what is more likely to follow, another Doz1, or either Doz2/Doz3?

If you said Doz2/Doz3 then why would you ever bet Doz1 to repeat?

Have we just created an edge by mathematically eliminating 1 Dozen from the betting equation for our next bet?


 

[Mr J]

Lets not forget what I mean regarding hundreds of trials. Every 25 (actually 38) is a new session. I could also change the question. Over 20 trials instead. In the end......past numbers are NOT suppose to mean anything, so I hear.

Ken

[MauiSunset]

past spins have a meaning. its unlikely the ball will land in the same place twice.
if you study 10.000 spins. you will find that the same numbers appear close to one another. this gives you a edge. as when you see certain numbers you know that the other number will play soon..

I know many of you honestly believe that there are "pockets" or "streaks" of events that can be used to forecast the future - I see them all the time in Roulette, craps, Blackjack, and any other game of chance in a casino.  I don't doubt you and I see them.

But they mean nothing - they can't help you win more money.  They have 0, zero, zip, forecasting ability.

Let me prove it to you.

I am going to flip a coin 10 times - here goes:

H-H-H-H-H-H-H-H-H-H (10 heads in a row - has happened many time since coins were invented)


OK, where do you place your $5 bet?  If you win I will PayPal you $5 and if you lose you PayPal me $5.


I flip the coin again:

H-H-H-H-H-T-T-T-T-T     (5 heads in a row followed by 5 tails in a row; happens many times)


OK, where do you place your $5 bet?  If you win I will PayPal you $5 and if you lose you PayPal me $5.


Now here's the kicker - one of those is for real and one I made up.

Which one did I make up?

Well the answer is that I made both up for this experiment but they have actually happened to some coin and some person in the past.

They mean nothing.

Watching a Roulette wheel spin and recording numbers means nothing - the past 100 spins have occurred at some time in the past to some Roulette wheel and the next 100 will have occurred at some point in history too.  

How does knowing that the last 100 spins have already occurred in the past help you with spin #101?

It doesn't because spin #101 is not dependent on the 100 spins before it.

In those 100 past spins there are all kinds of patterns - they happened randomly and only our brain puts value on them since it can find patterns anywhere it looks.

I've seen a potato that looks like Elvis (on TV) - how does that potato help me in the future?

P.S.
I'd bet that if you could find a pattern in Roulette you would win a Nobel Prize for Mathematics.

This discovery would be on the level of the invention of fire or the wheel.  It would make you famous - the movie rights, book rights, personal appearance fees would be worth more than any amount of gambling since your face would be put on the facial recognition software at every casino in the world - you would never set foot inside a casino ever again.

Of course the Roulette tables would be ripped out and replaced with some other game to pick our pockets.

So I'd gladly act as anyone's PR agent and charge just 5% of your income, instead of the normal 10% - this offer is only temporary so I'd jump on it quick if I were you.....

[pins]

tell me how you can play roulette with no past spins.

[MauiSunset]

tell me how you can play roulette with no past spins.

Simple - I've explained my way of playing most casino games elsewhere in the chat room but here it is again.

I use my watch to tell me what to do.

I look at the last color/odd/hi-lo (binary bet) and then look at the seconds on my watch - if I see an even second, like 0,2,4,...56,58 I use the last color/odd/hi-lo from the wheel and if I see on odd second, like 1,3,5...57.59 I use the opposite.

Now if there is no last spin I'd just use even for red, even, 1-18 and for odd use black, odd, 19-36.

That way I have nothing to prove or defend when I play a game - my watch determines the next bet and it's totally  random.

As soon as I use a method to decide a bet my mind tries to defend that choice - so I get upset and do stupid things.

When I gamble at the Roulette table or craps table I only bet binary wagers and I have a great time.

You can always spot me in a casino - I'm the guy always looking at his watch with no particular place to go....

P.S.
My favorite game is Blackjack - there skill and money management can make a huge difference.

To anyone playing Blackjack there are new tables out that do a LOT of surrendering - a LOT - this makes a HUGE difference in your outcome.  So scour the Internet for the new tables.  I always use mine while playing - too many drinks and having too much of a good time can result in a wrong decision or bet.

If you've never surrendered in Blackjack you are giving the house too much money.  The new tables have just as many surrenders as doubles - look for those tables.

[birdhands]

MauiSunset,
    Can you explain to me how after 95 heads in a row there is still a 50/50 chance when heads and tails are both moving toward an eventual even distribution?

[MauiSunset]

MauiSunset,
    Can you explain to me how after 95 heads in a row there is still a 50/50 chance when heads and tails are both moving toward an eventual even distribution?

There is NO such thing as "Eventual even distribution" - I don't know what that means (well, I do, but it's just something you wish for).

The ONLY thing probability tells us is that the chances of a Head or a Tail are both equal at 50%.  This assumes the coin is not rigged somehow.

Beyond that your imagination takes over.

Here's a test:

I hand you a coin and you must bet $10,000 on heads or tails - if you win I give you $10,000 and if you lose you give me $10,000.

You take me up on my wager and say Tails will come up and are ready to flip the coin.

Then I tell you that I just flipped that same coin 100 times and 95 times Heads came up with only 5 Tails that happened in flips 1,2,3,4,5.

Would that change your mind?  Would you switch from Tails to Heads?

If so, why and why on earth are you believing me?  I'm the one that cooked up the bet and told you the story?

I know that your mind takes the 50/50 event and wants to somehow get the edge on probability and cooks up some scheme that you believe in.  But the truth is that the next coin flip is still 50/50.

You probably have read that 100 of the best stock pickers in the world are no better at picking stocks than 1 monkey with 100 darts and the WSJ on the wall.

Even the best stock pickers in the world do no better than the DJIA over it's 120 years average - about 12% with stock appreciation and dividends.  Money management is where they outshine probability.

Same with gambling - just learn the odds, use no "secret" forecasts but random decisions, and make your winnings with money management.

But we all have days where we should have just stayed in bed......

[pins]

its the long term millions of spins it evens out.you could get a thousand heads.

[birdhands]

What I meant by eventual even distribution is that the larger the sample (more spins) the closer red and black come to 50/50.  Is this not true?  If it is (and I'm pretty darn sure it is) then how large does the sample have to be?  And no matter how large it is, red and black are always in the process of moving toward 50/50.  Am I missing something here?  Is it not true that smaller samples have a larger deviation from an even 50/50, and larger samples have a smaller deviation? 

Sam

[bombus]

What I meant by eventual even distribution is that the larger the sample (more spins) the closer red and black come to 50/50.  Is this not true?  If it is (and I'm pretty darn sure it is) then how large does the sample have to be?  And no matter how large it is, red and black are always in the process of moving toward 50/50.  Am I missing something here?  Is it not true that smaller samples have a larger deviation from an even 50/50, and larger samples have a smaller deviation? 

Sam

If you toss a coin 1000 times the result will almost never be exactly 50/50.

Let's say it was 486 heads / 514 tails = 48.6% - 51.4% with a difference of 28.

If you had bet heads you won 48.6% of your bets and you are down 28 units.


Now toss the coin 1,000,000 times.

Let's say it was 494,666 heads / 505334 tails = 49.46% - 50.53% with a difference of 10668.

If you had bet heads you won 49.46% of your bets (very very close to 50%) and you are down 10668 units!

Yes you could have bet tails, but you can see how the 50% factor means very little the longer the game goes on, and once behind it is exceedingly hard to catch up.

[MauiSunset]

What I meant by eventual even distribution is that the larger the sample (more spins) the closer red and black come to 50/50.  Is this not true?  If it is (and I'm pretty darn sure it is) then how large does the sample have to be?  And no matter how large it is, red and black are always in the process of moving toward 50/50.  Am I missing something here?  Is it not true that smaller samples have a larger deviation from an even 50/50, and larger samples have a smaller deviation?  

Sam

The average of ALL coin tosses from the time the Romans minted the first coin to the coins just being minted are 50% Heads and 50% Tails plus all coin flips in the future.

Just because you flip a coin 10 times and 9 Heads comes up does NOT mean that you are owed 9 Tails in the next 10 flips.  Even flipping 100 times means nothing to the 50/50 outcome.  The larger the sample the closer you get to 50/50.

But that means nothing on the next flip of your coin.

Waiting for 90% Reds to show up, on the Roulette Marque, doesn't mean that Black is favored - same with Odd/Even, Lo/Hi.

I call all of this stuff Voodoo Statistics - nonsense that sounds half way believable.

That Roulette Wheel has no memory nor does it follow any laws of statistics - it's just a wheel.

I'd bet that if you kept track of all the colors on a particular wheel for a year it would be 48.64864% Red, 48.64864% Black and 2.70272% Green.  The smaller the time frame the more the variance from those numbers.

If you don't believe me then let your wallet backup the fact that over years of gambling having fun means much more than trying to make a profit gambling.......

[MauiSunset]

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