Gamblers Fallacy (not what you think)

[GogoCro]

We dont expect any numbers to be due because of which numbers came up earlyer. Thats the definition and it does not apply to ap-

wrong, call it numbers, results, diamonds,pockets, area, bias wheel etc etc - same thing just a point of undersending and view!
Every spin is random event, only few factors are the same and others (speed, direction, angle, curve) make a spin truely random and separate event.

[gizmotron]

BTW, I agree, thats not the Capt.

Ken

I just asked him to confirm it over at GG.

[Kelly]

Gogo, you dont understand the deffinition of GF and not advantage play. Like i said earlyer, i dont really need past spins at all if i were allowed to examine the wheel before i play.     Please.........

Ken its not my task to classify how you or others play, call it whatever you want.  If the method fits the deffiniton its easy.

You can argue wether a progression on say red, regardless which colour came up last,  is GF. Because the bets is raised in the expectance of a hit, but its still with basis in past losses and the expectance that the hits will eqal the past losses. So i would say it fits the defibition of GF.

[Mr J]

I dont want to argue Kelly, honestly. This is my point (its not a question).....I think its unfair to put EVERY method into ONE category saying......we are betting on  something because its 'due'.

Ken

[Kelly]

So which method isn`t ? Just curious.  I mentioned blindfold playing........

[Mr J]

I'm gonna make something up, this is NOT a method so no laughing. Lets say, whatever number just hit, the next spin you bet on the two numbers on both sides. Flat betting or a progression, whatever. Single zero wheel.... the 7 hit so on the next spin, the player bets on the 29 and 28. Granted, its using ONE past spin but that does not mean the player thinks the 29/28 is DUE.

Ken

[Kelly]

I guess if its just a decision maker, like if you had a bag with 37 number balls and picked one before each spin, that indicated your next bet it wouldnt come under the deffinition. (remember to put the used ball back and shake the bag)

[Mr J]

Fair enough. The method would be based on a 'rule' but not based on something 'due'.

Ken

[GogoCro]

Kelly I uderstund what GF is. I think that AP is some sort of GF and I will try to explain;
AP relie one some bias/flow in system to determen future outcome. That theory have major flaw because is relie on bias like something certant but in reallity every spin is indipendad from another and bias can stop to exist or even change when you take ALL factors involved (dealer, speed, direction etc etc). So AP is to find flaw and exploit it and IMO in casino wheel they only think that some bias is that factor which gave them advantage when in reallity that is not a case.

Many methods does not look on past numbers to detrimine next bet and because that is not gamlers fallacy.

[Kelly]

Sigh,,,,, read the deffinition of GF again.  And if there are no faults in the wheel, there is no advantage play. I never said there were. You might wanna have a chat with forester, i think you and him are from the same part of the world. He might get faster through than i am.

Can the wheel or ball change direction in the middle of a spin ?  No not where i play.

Can the wheel change speed in the middle of the spin ? Normally not but Cammegh has a few that does, of course we don`t play that type.

Can the dealer influence the 6 last ball revoloutions in the spin ?  No, not much, he can have greasyer hands that might affect the ball over some spins, hence the dealers name is in the tracking.

The bias/fault in the wheel is what makes it possible, otherwise it is IMpossible.

If i know at a certain point that the ball will run for another 9 seconds and the wheel speed is 3.0 sec. pr. revoloution i know the wheel will take exactly 3 full revoloutions until the ball drops, so at this point i also know exacly which number the ball is going to hit when it hits the rotor. So my bets will be placed where the high peak is at the scatter diagram, relatively to the this number. 

Im not gonna continue this topic before you read up on the very basics.

[Mike]

I dont want to argue Kelly, honestly. This is my point (its not a question).....I think its unfair to put EVERY method into ONE category saying......we are betting on  something because its 'due'.

Ken

I've said it many times, there are MANY methods which don't depend on something being due. Take a simple bet selection like "follow the last" - this doesn't normally commit GF because you're counting on there being more streaks in the game than chops (and if you were using "opposite to last" you are counting on there being more chops than streaks). Both of these bet selections are fallacies though, because there are as many chops as streaks in the game, so you don't get an advantage either way.

I said "normally" because you COULD use "follow the last" after looking at past outcomes and, noticing that there haven't been many streaks, then decide to play FTL because streaks are "due" - that WOULD be GF.

It's very simple; if you believe that some event is due and bet accordingly, then it's GF. Fallacies are about false beliefs, and these are many and varied; GF is only one of them.

[Zindrod]

Are we gonna argue the definition of 'tilted'? You are asking the WRONG cat. Ask The AP (the broken dream) crew. I have read (on this board) that a gifted AP guy can spot a tilted wheel in only 3 spins. 


Ken

I do not know about spotting it in 3 spins but I can definately spot it in 10 spins and confirm it in 20 (one way).

I'm curious though. What would you describe as a tilted wheel Ken?


regards
Z

[schoenpoetser]

Kelly you did make a fundamental mistake.If you know the velocity of the ball en the wheel it is impossible to compute the place where the ball meet the wheel.
Both velocities are not uniform and have different slowing downs. For these calculations you must have the knowledge of kinematics.I thought it my students many years.My knowledge of kinematic tells me the failing of VB or related methods. I follow the discussions about these methods but I do not argue.

[Mr J]

"I've said it many times, there are MANY methods which don't depend on something being due" >>> There lies the issue! Most will say that ALL methods are based on gamblers fallacy and most will say that gamblers fallacy=due.

BTW, I happen to agree with you, there are MANY methods which dont depend on something being due *BUT* *BUT* *BUT* where are the SAME nay-sayers against me, why are they NOT challenging your statement? 

Ken

[Kelly]

Schoenpoetser, not really. Its actually much simpler than what you describe. One of the secrets is that I know which diamond the ball will hit, if I didn`t know that, it could be downright impossible.  And by the way, the decelleration of the rotor is almost a constant.  The decelleration of the ball in the last 6 rounds is also a "constant".  It differs, I know but we are talking a difference of 1/2 second for the entire 6 rounds. Which means that I might not get the exact strike number correct each time, but it will be within a 3 number sector. The scatter is usually the part that waters out the edge much more than knowing where the ball drops.  

Steve Forte (google him, he is in surveillance business) describes in his last book how wheel clocking is done. He made a small diagram that shows basicly which komponents the clocker mixes when he makes the prediction. In real life you are not standing with that picture in your hand, its merely an illustration.



PPS: Other VB players might soon jump in and say why i only describe a 1 pin game (only 1 strike diamond) when all we face is 2 or 3 pin games in the casinos, to that i must say: Lets keep it SSIIMMPPLLEE. Describing a 2 pin game in here where not even  a 1 pin game is understood would be a communicational suicide.

[Kelly]

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