Gamblers Fallacy (not what you think)

[Mr J]

@Zindrod >>> Reply #240 regarding that AP question.

BTW, you sure sound like another poster I happen to know.

Ken

[Zindrod]

@Zindrod >>> Reply #240 regarding that AP question.

BTW, you sure sound like another poster I happen to know.

Ken

(lol) No, its not a trick question. I am quoting the goofs....."find a scratch on the wheel, so you know its the same one".

I brought up a damn good point/question. How would the AP guy know, maybe the problem was fixed at 4am.

Ken

Is this the question you were referring too?

In short. If you have the necessary data and you have say 2 bias numbers 5 and 17 then you would not just walk in and start playing. Reason being exactly what you referred to. That is that the wheel might of been sorted out while you weren't there. So you would track a sample on the day and you will see whether it binds in with your previously collected data. If it does you will play.

Hope this helps. 

[Mr J]

@Zindrod >> No, this was the question.....

QUESTION >> I have read many times from the AP guys, if you have been recording MANY MANY numbers from a wheel (hoping for a bias) you should always find a little scratch on it, make note of it, just in case its replaced (at 4am) and you dont know about it.

Ok, kind of makes sense. Question being, can they 'fix' (not sure what word to use) the bias but NOT REPLACE anything visible? I assume yes so that means.......you would still see your scratch but never know the issue was taken care of, correct?

Ken

[Zindrod]

@Zindrod >> No, this was the question.....

QUESTION >> I have read many times from the AP guys, if you have been recording MANY MANY numbers from a wheel (hoping for a bias) you should always find a little scratch on it, make note of it, just in case its replaced (at 4am) and you dont know about it.

Ok, kind of makes sense. Question being, can they 'fix' (not sure what word to use) the bias but NOT REPLACE anything visible? I assume yes so that means.......you would still see your scratch but never know the issue was taken care of, correct?

Ken

Correct yes.

The thing is that looking for markings is an easy and convenient way to find whether a wheel has been moved or turned. Casinos will rather swop wheels than actually fix the problem. Most casinos won't touch repairs on a wheel but rather call out the manufacturer of the wheel to service or fix it.

So if you play bias, markings will help you find the wheel if it had been moved.

Same with tilt. If I get to a wheel that I have tracked for tilt I do not know if the wheel was turned or not (or moved). Markings and the position thereof will indicate if that was the case. If so I would check again if the wheel has the same DD or whether it has changed. Some wheels you can level as much as you like and and turn until you are blue, the DD will always be the same. Obviously the problem thus does not occur because the wheel isn't level. There are other reasons for that.

warm regards
Z

[curious]

I said all strategies based on past numbers is gamblers fallacy, why is that hard to read ? You are the strategy expert, you tell me which strategys are not based on past numbers. Close your eyes and spread 10 chips on the table could be one of them.

I am going to try this system at the casino.  I will just close my eyes and spread 10 chips on the table.

How much will I win?  Will I win every time?

[curious]

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