Cycle Shift - Do you like long w-Streaks?

[Psilocyx]

What if there's a way to play 2 exact opposite bets at the same time. Opposite meaning while the one is winning, the other one is losing (sounds like EC bets, doesn't it?).

In Cycle Shift, you bet on dozens. The dozen(s) you bet on is determined by the 8th and 10th dozen prior to the current bet. Depending on which bet is winning, you bet on either 1 or 2 dozens.

Bet selection is simple:
Observe the 8th and 10th dozen prior.

If the dozens are the same, you bet on the other 2 dozens.
(e.g.. 8th dozen: 2, 10th dozen: 2. Bet on dozens 1 and 3)

If the dozens are different, you bet on both those dozens.
(e.g.. 8th dozen: 2, 10th dozen: 3. Bet on dozens 2 and 3)

For the purposes of this system, the number that lands is irrelevant, so simply record the dozens using numbers 1 2 3.

Example:
3
3
1
3
2
1
3
3
3
2
1 < Bet on 1 and 3. Win
3 < Bet on 1 and 2. Lose
2 < Bet on 1 and 2. Win
1 < Bet on 1 and 3. Win
3 < Bet on 2 and 3. Win
etc.

Attached for your convenience is 1000 spins (generated using random.org). I've tracked the wins in 2 columns. The left column for betting on 2 dozens and the right column for betting on the one remaining dozen.

Scrolling down, you can see right off the bat there are some long win streaks, particularly on the left side. Quickly you'll also notice that a standard progression wouldn't work here if you were to bet on the left side. A Martingale progression on 2 dozens will bust out within 4 misses.

What we're trying to aim for here is knowing when to start flat betting the left side, once it starts spewing out a long win streak. Of course, there are many different ways to play this idea, and this thread is dedicated to brainstorming until we get the best way to play this.

For simplicity, lets call the 2 dozen bet D2 and the 1 dozen bet D1

Some observations of note:

- Mathematically, betting on 2 dozens for 1000 spins would win 666 times on average. In the spreadsheet, D2 wins 673 times. That's 100% correct, it's not supposed to win more than is normal for 2 dozen bets.

- The longest straight win streak for D2 is 17 wins in a row (from 328-344). At that point it dished out 25 wins in 26 spins (from 319-344). [This is the equivalent of a single dozen sleeping for 25 spins, hitting only once in between.]

- The longest win streak for D1 is 5, happening only once. Streaks of 4 wins happens a total of 6 times.

- The most congested part is 123-133, where D1 wins 9 times in 11 spins.

- Mathematically, D1 should win once for every two D2 wins. However, as you'll see, situations where D1 wins almost half of the spins is not uncommon.

- Observe rows 357-406, D1 wins 23 times in 51 spins. Almost half of the spins went to D1, and you can be sure that soon D2 is going to dish out a long streak to make up for it.

- This happens again at 480-529, again at 613-629, and at 870-888. Smaller examples exist throughout the spreadsheet.

Please contribute any thoughts and your own observations, it will definitely help the collective to develop this system into something truly powerful!

Psilocyx.

[Psilocyx]

To add to this, I think that a good way to play this would be to play a Fibonacci progression on D1 while it's alternating, and to switch to flat betting D2 when it's streaking.

Any questions???   

[MattyMattz]

why look back at the 8th and 10th spin?  Why not the last 2 spins? 

MM

[TwoCatSam]

If the dozens are the same, you bet on the other 2 dozens.
(e.g.. 8th dozen: 2, 10th dozen: 2. Bet on dozens 1 and 3)

If the dozens are different, you bet on both those dozens.
(e.g.. 8th dozen: 2, 10th dozen: 3. Bet on dozens 2 and 3)

If I understand right, you're betting on two dozens constantly.  So why do you speak of a one-dozen bet?

Sam

[Psilocyx]

why look back at the 8th and 10th spin?  Why not the last 2 spins? 

MM

There are many reasons, but mainly because I wanted to track spins that aren't too recent. If the "bet pickers" are too recent, then it means your bet selection is too dependant on a very recent event. Making the bet selection further away means you get a wider "average".

The reason that we're betting 8 and 10 instead of something symmetrical like 9, is because we actually ARE betting 9. The only reason I pick the numbers on either side of 9 is because using a single number to determine your bets means there are only 3 possible outcomes. While tracking 2 numbers means there are 9 betting possibilities.

If you were to track this system using a "grid" similar to Code 4, it would look like this:

xxx
xxx
xxx
xB

The problem with this is you're only betting every 3 spins, because it can be confusing to keep tracking exactly which spin was 8 and 10 ago. If we tracked the single 9th spin, we could play constantly, basically betting against the dozen 3 rows up, but this would yield very "normal" wins. (Normal as in not as many long streaks).

I just think that 9 makes sense since we're playing with multiples of 3, but there may be many more reasons.

[Psilocyx]

If the dozens are the same, you bet on the other 2 dozens.
(e.g.. 8th dozen: 2, 10th dozen: 2. Bet on dozens 1 and 3)

If the dozens are different, you bet on both those dozens.
(e.g.. 8th dozen: 2, 10th dozen: 3. Bet on dozens 2 and 3)

If I understand right, you're betting on two dozens constantly.  So why do you speak of a one-dozen bet?

Sam

Yes you understand right. Our main focus in this system is betting 2 dozens, simply because it tends to have long winning streaks, which are exploitable. The one-dozen bet is the remaining dozen you don't bet on. Well, you could, it's always a choice, since it will also be winning a lot of the time. Can you imagine betting a single dozen the whole time while it's winning every other spin?

Picking the single dozen bet is simple:
If the 8th and 10th spin are the same, bet the same dozen.
If the 8th and 10th spin are different, bet the remaining dozen.

Choosing to bet on 2 dozens or a single dozen all depends on the current relationship between D2 and D1.

Make sense?

Psilocyx.

[bombus]

3
3
1
3
2
1
3
3
3
2
1 < Bet on 1 and 3. Win
3 < Bet on 1 and 2. Lose Is this right? It looks wrong.
2 < Bet on 1 and 2. Win
1 < Bet on 1 and 3. Win
3 < Bet on 2 and 3. Win
etc.


This doesn't make any sense, that's why I LIKE IT!

Give me some time to mull over this intriguing idea, then I will contribute what I can.

Cheers and thanks for posting!

[Psilocyx]

3
3
1
3
2
1
3
3
3
2
1 < Bet on 1 and 3. Win
3 < Bet on 1 and 2. Lose Is this right? It looks wrong.
2 < Bet on 1 and 2. Win
1 < Bet on 1 and 3. Win
3 < Bet on 2 and 3. Win
etc.


This doesn't make any sense, that's why I LIKE IT!

Give me some time to mull over this intriguing idea, then I will contribute what I can.

Cheers and thanks for posting!

Yes it is right! To make it more clear, the first 5 numbers we tracked are:

3
3
1
3
2

The two red numbers are our first 2 pointers. 1 and 3, so we bet on 1 and 3. Once that spin is done, we move one space down. The two blue numbers are our second 2 pointers. As they are the same (3), we bet in the two remaining dozens 1 and 2. Spin lands and it's 3 again. So if at this point we chose to bet on D1, which the rules say if spin 8 and 10 are the same, we bet on the same, we would have won.

As it goes on, the last number of our first bet is now the first number in the very next bet (i.e. the last red and the first purple number). Hope this makes more sense .

I'm glad you're as excited about this as I am!

[Psilocyx]

Alright, so how do you track 8 and 10 spins back? There's no real easy way to do it if you want to count, chances are you're going to make mistakes, any mistake will probably cost you money.

This is the easiest way to track Cycle Shift! Simply cut a piece of paper with 2 holes over the 8th and 10th spins, with a single hole where the current bet is, and attach it to your monitor. See the picture

[crackers]

This is an excellent example of another mindless, trigger based, mechanical system.

[Psilocyx]

This is an excellent example of another mindless, trigger based, mechanical system.

It's not trigger based. Did you read the thread? Did you look at the spreadsheet?

It's not trigger based, it's constant betting.. If you were to flatbet this you would end up right back at 0 units. What makes this different than other systems are the long, very predictable, winning streaks!

I've had D1 win 9 times in a row in only 4k spins. That is the equivalent of a single dozen repeating 9 times. It would take far more than 4'000 spins to find 1 instance of a single dozen repeating 9 times. What if you were betting on that dozen?

[crackers]

What makes this different than other systems are the long, very predictable, winning streaks!

I've been saying for years that you can use just about any consistent bet selection
technique that will produce win streaks. The only thing that will happen regarding
predictability is that win streaks will happen. There is no known method that
predicts when a win streak begins. Your system is no different.

My recommendation is to  look directly to dealing with the win streaks. I use a two  level system. I prefer to attack each win streak with a 5 - 10 times my basic bet level.

[Psilocyx]

Thank you very much for your input crackers!

[crackers]

You are very welcome.  I tend to see two to three sleeping dozens that last long
enough to exploit them very well about every 150 spins. Do you see opportunities
like that with this system?

[Psilocyx]

I have just finished tracking 5'000 spins. I will post some statistics from this a little later, but I'll upload it for now for people who want to see what it contains. 5'000 is a rather large sample. I think it will have a lot of useful information for our "math guys".

Double dozen bets in 5'000 spins would on average win 3333 times. D2 won 3342 times. I.E. It checks out!

Also attached is a line chart showing (in small scale) what is happening over and over throughout playing this system. It doesn't matter if you are more inclined to play D1 than D2, or the vice versa. As one is winning, it goes further and further away from the baseline, the average. No matter how long you play, it will always go back to that baseline. Sometimes it will go really far out, but the pull back to the average will always cause it to come back down. What goes up must come down. I believe this is kind of how a bell curve works?

It is ok to think that it's impossible to predict when a win streak is coming, but I personally believe it's possible, if you pay enough attention to what's happening. Sure you may not know the exact moment, but it will become obvious when a win streak is due.

[Psilocyx]

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