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The Bait and Switch
December 20, 2018, 01:07:59 AM
Hey guys, I want your input on something that I've been working on lately.

I have part of a system in my head but I just can't seem to work out the final process, so I'll share what I've got.

As you know, when betting on the even chances, using a positive progression does not work. The reason positive progressions don't work is because the frequencies of wins are never able to outpace your losses.

For example, if you bet on red to streak you can reasonably expect in 1,000 spins:

     * 500 single appearances (RB)
     * 250 runs of 2 (RRB)
     * 125 runs of 3 (RRRB)
     *  62 runs of 4 (RRRRB)
     *  31 runs of 5 (RRRRRB)
     *  15 runs of 6 (RRRRRRB)
     *   8 runs of 7 (RRRRRRRB)
     *   4 runs of 8 (RRRRRRRRB)
     *   2 runs of 9 (RRRRRRRRRB)
     *   1 run of 10 (RRRRRRRRRRB)

Now, no matter what your progression is or how much you bet, you can never win more on the runs than you lose on the single appearances.

I've spent several months trying different approaches, including one which I thought was rather ingenious. You start the bet at $10 and bet on red after it shows. If you lose, you accept the loss (this would be the 500+ single appearances in the table above) If you win, your second bet drops down to $6. Why? Because you want to lock in those profits instead of betting them away.

Anyways, with a positive progression of 10-6-4-2-1-1 etc, you still cannot overcome the -5000 in losses you will eventually accrue. I made it very close - within $20, but always a loss.

Even though your profits are increasing as the red streak continues, the frequencies of the wins are always less than the frequency of losses.

Ok, so that doesn't work (too bad).


Here is something I think might.

Notice that there are 10 odd numbers that are also red. This is an uneven distribution of odd numbers in the reds. That means there are only 8 red evens.

It's the same for the blacks. There are 10 even black numbers and only 8 odds.

Now, what if, as I'm following streaks of red, instead of betting on red, I bet on odd?

There are two obvious advantages that I can see.

First, I'm not subjecting my bets to the frequency problem that kills all other positive progression bets.

And second, I actually have a higher chance of winning an odd number if the streak continues for red.

How much better?

Well, because there are 10 odd reds compared to 8 red evens, there are 2 more chances for me to win over red evens.

That equates to a 55% chance of winning on odd compared to a 45% chance of losing on even - as long as I only bet while red is streaking.

Remember, I am achieving this advantage with $1 on an even chance covering 18 numbers. Normally you have a 48.6% chance of winning on even chances and a 51.4% chance of losing. But betting this way, you have a 55% chance of winning compared to a 45% chance of losing.

Now I realize that this is not the same as betting on any even chance and having a +10% advantage because I'm still betting on 18 numbers and can lose on 19.


...If I only follow the streaks of red (or black), and bet on odd (or even if I'm following black), then I always have a slightly higher chance of winning than losing.

Because no matter how you slice it, 10 red odds is greater than 8 red evens. And 10 black evens is greater than 8 black odds.

Now I have actually played this, with vary degrees of success, but I never really nailed down a great way to play it.

I usually just flat bet $5. When red shows, I bet $5 on odd. If red continues to streak, I have a 55% chance of winning and a 45% chance of losing.

Whenever the red streak stops, I still have a 45% chance of winning because there are 8 black odds that I can win on too.

Basically, whenever the colour changes, I follow it by betting on the corresponding even (for blacks) or odd (for reds) and accept the wins and losses as they come.

So, there are two things I'd like input on.

1. Am I missing something here? Sometimes you get so wrapped up in your own ideas that you miss a glaring omission that completely destroys your whole system.

2. Is there a better way to play this? Would playing like I mentioned at the very beginning be better?

Would appreciate your feedback.
They can, because they think they can. - Virgil



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Re: The Bait and Switch
December 28, 2018, 05:59:06 AM
Why you take your energy on evenchances???

When you put the same energy on streaks numbers you don’t need bet to many times.

I do understand what you mean that evenchances can show you where and when to bet but tracking odd even Orr black and red.... low hi.... to much work for small profit on my own eyes. If you want send me a message we can make some research together. I already have par things but maybe 2 brains know more -)))


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Re: The Bait and Switch
January 19, 2019, 09:16:36 AM
Interested in this. Could you explain a little more clearly how it would work?


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