Popular pages:

Roulette System

The Roulette Systems That Really Work

Roulette Computers

Hidden Electronics That Predict Spins

Roulette Strategy

Why Roulette Betting Strategies Lose

Roulette System

The Honest Live Online Roulette Casinos

Slots or Bac, you decide.

Started by Talesman, September 13, 2008, 04:31:01 AM

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.


When I comprised my theory of why Baccarat is nothing
more than the worst-ever slot machine disguised as a
table game I thought it was going to be easy to grab
the required published numbers and present them
putting a slot machine side by side with a bac table
using hold income for both.

Then in my research I read volumes on hold, handle,
drop, return percentage, theoreticals, House edge,
House advantage, vig, and the like and found it wasn't
all that simple. At least not as simple as I originally
perceived it to be.

Fact: Macau's gross gaming revenues—which were US$5.6
billion in 2005—have almost overtaken those of the Las
Vegas Strip and are widely expected to surpass the Strip
in the next year or two. Furthermore, it is likely that
Macau's gaming revenues will overtake those of the entire
State of Nevada (US$12.2 billion in FY2006) some time
between 2010 and 2015. The breakdown of gaming revenues
by source is perhaps even more interesting, especially
for analysts used to Western patterns. In Nevada, about
70% of all gaming revenues come from slot machines, with
the balance coming from table games. In Macau in 2005,
table games accounted for 96.5% of gross gaming revenue.
Furthermore, Baccarat represents over 86% of the total
of all table game revenues. In Nevada, Baccarat makes up
only about 25% of table game revenues and 8% of total
gaming revenues.

The hold percentage on the game of Baccarat in Nevada
typically ranges between 11% to 12.5%, depending on the
style of game being played. For example, in June 2006,
Nevada casinos experienced a hold percentage of 8.81% on
Baccarat, whereas in April 2006, it was 14.52%; for the
entire 2005-2006 fiscal year, the average hold percentage
was 10.89%.

In Australia and New Zealand, where Baccarat is played
under the same rules as the United States, the hold
percentage typically ranges from 15% to 20%. In Macau
the hold percentage for Baccarat is in the 15% to 17%
range. These are clearly significant differences for
essentially the same game.

The hold percentage at table games is the amount won
divided by the drop on the table. Drop is the amount of
cash and other negotiable instruments that are taken by
the dealer at the game—and placed into the drop box—in
exchange for chips.

James J. Murren, chief financial officer at MGM Grand,
which recently opened its Mansion -- a complex of deluxe
villas for high rollers -- said that because so much is
bet on each turn of the cards, profit margins from baccarat
are often the highest of any game, making it worthwhile
to put up with the volatility of winnings. ''You don't
make that your base level of earnings,'' he said.
''You make that your gravy.''

Las Vegas Hilton and Caesars Palace, which both market to
high-end international baccarat customers, posted 29% and
20% cash flow gains during 1998, while Circus Circus,
largely through cost-containment measures, reported a
9% cash flow increase.

Are you still awake?  Good.  All that crap above proved
is Bac is a HUGE money maker just like the slots. Sadly
we can't actually use the hold percentages from a table
like we use the same from the slots. Trust me, its
complicated casino math.

Now for a slight comparison.

Playing a Slot Machine requires no skill.  Put in your money
then push a button or pull the handle and you have an outcome.
It's either lose or win some random amount of coins.

Mini-Baccarat is a card game that requires no skill. In many
respects, it's just a guessing game, comparable to calling
heads on tails on the flip of a coin. Multiple decks of
cards, generally eight, are shuffled up and dealt out of
an elongated plastic shoe. Individual players do not
receive cards.

When a casino orders a slot machine from the manufacturer,
it specifies the payback it wants for that machine, which
generally ranges from 90-98%.

In both Illinois and Nevada, according to published stats
that I found, the average hold on $1 slot machines for both
states was 95%. So for this missive, we will use that figure
for the base math to follow.

So far we have a slot machine that is programmed to hold 5%
and we are going to contrast it to a game that has a much
lower edge of about 1.17% if you bet on Banker and we shall bet
on Banker to get that good percentage.

We all know that slots are for "suckers" and according to
a gaming wag: "Still, even if the casino levies a slight
percentage from your winning loot, the banker and the
noncommissioned player hand are two of the best bets on
the casino floor. Both are fun and profitable." WOW!!!
Can't beat that!  Best game!!!

How are we going to compare the two?  I could start out by
saying Talesman and Spike go into a casino....well that isn't
going to work because neither admit to losing at their chosen

So it will be Jack and Jill in this instance.  And to make it
interesting Jill will lose and Jack will win. I know Jill.
Jill is a tramp, so screw her!!!

Each of our players will have a bankroll commensurate to the
game they are playing.

To set this up I'll have to quote an authority on gambling,
John Grochowski.  John states: "Banker wins 50.68 percent of
hands that are not ties. Bet banker from now until the end
of time, and you'll win more hands than you lose." That data
has been echoed by other writers so I'll have to take it as
gospel for now.

Jill is our slot player.  Jill has $1000 to play and she is
going to play the $1 slots and run her entire BR of $1000
through it.  The casino math tells us that after doing that
she should have lost 5% (remember the payback is 95% so the
hold percentage/House Edge is 5% 100-95=5) of the BR.  5%
of $1000 is $50.  Jill paid the House $50 to have her fun
and try for the brass ring.  Better luck next time Jill,
you tramp!.

Now it is Jack's turn and he plays Baccarat. Bac's edge, even
with the 5% vig on Banker bets is only 1.17%.  Best odds of
any game, right?

I have been told by many bac players in the forums that a good
average for a shoe is 85 outcomes after the Ties are removed.
I guess I will have to go with that for this example. Also
the most common mini-bac table min. in the USA is $25 so that
will be used as well.  We need reality.

Using all that data I find that out of 85 hands 50.68% of
85 is 43. Banker is going to win 43 hands so that leaves
42 wins for Player.

43 Banker wins x 25 = $1075 income. The 5% vig on $1075 = $53.75

WAIT A MINUTE!!!  What's this???  It only cost Jill, the foolish
slot machine player $50 as her tax to play but it cost our sharp
player, Jack, who only plays the low edge game $3.75 more in tax.

Jack, the 'sharp' player won $1075 but also lost $1050 when Player
won.  So his gross profit was $25.  Good for Jack!!! Alas,  Jill
didn't win a cent. Pity her (she's a tramp and doesn't deserve
to win). 

Oh, but wait!!!  Jack's good fortune isn't what it seems to be. 
No, not at all my friend.  We have yet to account for the commission
from the total. Subtract the $53.75 from that great $25 win and
we have a deficit of $28.75.  So, in the end Jill is still better
off than Jack as to out-of-pocket $$$ and both are losers, just
like the casino planned it.  That's why I love bac. so much!!!!
You win, but still lose.  WHAT A GREAT GAME!!! It is any wonder
how the figures up above are so rich?     

We know not all days are like that.  Some days at even-money Bac
Jack may win a few hundred here and there.  What can that tramp
Jill do?  Well, on the average 3-reeler slot playing a single
$1 at a time her worst top prize would be $5000. Playing more
coins could net her $15,000 to $60,000 easily. I am betting if
Jill wins that big jackpot she's going to toss Jack - "Mr. I only
play low-vig games" - out on his ear.  That would be cool, I know
Jill.  She's hot, she's a tramp and she's just my kind of gal -
a rich hot tramp!!! Gosh, I hope she wins soon!

Until next time.