Numbers per se mean nothing......

[pins]

this world is the only reality we can know.you are wasting your time trying to find answers  to the questions how did it all begin. we can never know.  think about it. there was no time or space in the beginning.  so how did it start. or it was always here. now back to the roulette.

[TwoCatSam]

First imagine infinite time and infinite space. 

Suppose the creation of matter is a natural phenomenon.  Always has been; always will be. 

Matter has always been being created and will always be being created.  This is eternity without beginning or end.  No one cares how long it takes to make an atom and no one cares how big the Universe grows.

Out the the nothing sprang the something.

Or not.........

Sam

[Monte Carlo]

I am quite surprised that the idea of quantum mechanics was raised at all. Perhaps it is the most original idea and new vision of looking at roulette that I have seen to date on this forum. It is the first time that I have seen an idea that simply didn't shuffle the deck of cards and pretend that the sum total didn't equal the same as before.

Think of quantum mechanics as the thread that connects all your sessions together. That is your thread and yours alone when you stand back you have your little patch of fabric. Each of the other players has their own thread and together their own patch of fabric and together it becomes a quilt. In quantum mechanics the table only reacts when you observe and only affects your thread while you are observing. Yet all the patches behave independent while also in unison.

While you are playing the game you are adding to a dataset that is a series of sessions that is connected by your thread. That data set will behave according to all the laws of probability relative to roulette. This will be true both in the short term of your session which will be highly volatile but also in the long term which will be more stable.  You could chose to ignore every other spin but the overall effect would be the same in the long term.

It is those long term trends that will  allow you see the weaknesses in your dataset and allow you to adjust your play to suit. It's why your systems break down in the long term. Because you have developed them for the short term irregularity that has been created. Eventually that window will close and the data set will will return to balance. Ultimately the system  you designed will begin to fail.

In quantum mechanics the problem is that we haven't figured out how it meshes with the general theory of relativity. In roulette the general theory is probability math based on on a stochastic distribution model. We knew about the general theory before quantum mechanics but that doesn't mean it didn't exist and didn't affect our universe. Alao, just because we don't understand how it meshes does not mean it's an either/or solution. They both exist, they both affect and a complete model will require an understanding of both.

Monte Carlo

[WannaWin]

It can not be otherwise. The chance seems rather a perfect creation.

There is a line for the dealer. All the numbers that make up spun by each dealer make perfect sense in balance of the total figures.

A line for the roulette wheel, all the numbers measured perfect match in totals for it to stay operating for the casino.

One line for each of the players, all the numbers make perfect totals for each of the players lines.

Then the last perfect system would be to use our own line of numbers we have casino to casino, with RNG, with roulette live video, with local casino and with such records make the personal play. Do not bet blindly all the passes, but using a method like that of the waking numbers in our play to capture that which agrees to appear in most probability to ourselves but at the time spot where it should. we know that after an appearance other shows can compensate our personal record makes our time to begin.

Read to the spinner as a crystal ball? We predict. Our prediction does not come then we are not bankrupt because it does not play all sets, and when we get predictions right enough = benefit to go ahead of the game because we maintain our bets until they are compensated in our line.

Perhaps this is the best way to play for a lifetime.

Greetings.
WannaWin

[TwoCatSam]

Monte Carlo

You used this word: stochastic.

Would you define this?  And also winkel, KFS or anyone else who understands it.

Sam

[pins]

google it.

[TwoCatSam]

pins

I did Google it.  First thing I did.  Sometimes people on this forum put things into words or use examples I understand better than Googleese!  I was hoping for a dumb-dumb explanation.

Sam

[winkel]

Hi TCS,

stochastik is part of the science of math. it is not accepted as own science, but it should, because it is not math, it is the science of relations between groups using math to express this relationship.

e.g. Polls
when you ask 1000 People if they like cats you get 480 answers Yes 460 answers NO and 60 answers are "don´t know" or similiar to this
Now you can say
most people like cats (figure 480)
most people don´t like cats (480+60) because they didn´t say "Yes"
most people like cats or are neutral to them (480+60)

stochastic expresses this in %-ages

it started all with the mathematician Gauss
he build a machine or a board with nails on it combined like a christmastree
if you let a ball run down he noticed that most hits would be in the middle. He invented the statistical "Bell"

this went to the try to predict future (an very old fashion) by science
e.g. if we have 37 chances to hit, which probability is to hit the one we have chosen.

with stochastic we now know haw huge is the chance and we would never win or lose in the long-term. because it tends to equal. (Law of the Great Number)
But we can win in the short term, because of its deviations (Law of the small Number)

That we lose is not a problem of statistics or stochastics it is a problem of the house edge.
Whatever we do by a "iron rule" will lead to equal or the house-edge, this is statistically proven, done by using the science of stochastics.

so far @herb is right telling it over and over again.
What I personally try is to tell which trigger is a solid and reliable one without referring to a single number or a row or minor chance to bet on.
and on the second hand, to teach the people to read "what is going on" and to get a "better cheance" from that.
I´m convinced that with this kind of bet-selection and notation of spins it can be done.
a 10 million or billion-test must end up -2,7% no doubt on that.
Only your own intelligence will make you win that one bet, that makes you beat the equal and the house-edge.
and it will teach you to stop when it is necessary to stop
and it will teach you to go on when it is to go on
and it will teach you to jump from a losing streak into a winning streak

I hope I could tell you what stochastic is about
Stochastic is exactly looking towards this foreseeing to what will happen based on the facts I know til now and from the past.
Stochastics is collecting all the patterns which are build by noticing things that happen, if they are bound to porbability or not.

Flies are spread all over the world. But some of them are only in Europe and some only in Africa and both of them in America and some not. But some came to America, which haven´t been there. As a known fact 1000 flies breed another 10 000 000 in one day. Now you can explore when they will be as many as the typical American Fly.


br
winkel

[TwoCatSam]

winkel

Thank you!

Sam

[winkel]

Hi Mr. Chips,

just look at the results of the 10 million spin test by KFS.

On one hand I need this security to bet like G.U.T tells
On the other hand I have to use my "gamblers intelligence" to get that "one win" more than I need to be equal.

br
winkel

[Monte Carlo]

Thanks Winkel, I think your explanation is very good.

I would have explained it a bit different. Stochastic as it referred to in roulette involves an environment that is subject to a series of physical laws. The outcome of each new step in linear time is held by those rules but determined by random occurrence. Though the next step is random and determined by simple statistical math the results are highly variable. In the long term though the averages will hold true even though the path there is infinite in variability the distribution of outcomes is determanistic.

When I said stochastic distribution model I was specifically referring to the law of large numbers.

Monte Carlo

[winkel]

but as long as the basic components are in place, it
should [highlight]produce a positive result long term[/highlight], which is all that is required from a computer test.

Hi Mr. Chips,

as long as the rules of stochastics are in place and there is a house-edge this is impossible.

let me give an example:

Imagine someone had found the ultimate HG on Red and Black (he thinks he had found it)
and I would offer a match to him:

We have some random coups and he knows what to bet and tells:
RED I give him Black
RED I give him Black
RED I give him Black
BLACK I give him Red
RED I give him Black
and so on and so on:

We could play this for a year, he will never ever win a single bet! But I could proof I had played a totally random Group of spins over that year. All my numbers will fulfill the rules of Stochastics and Math and Randomness. Of course I cheated, but I can present a possible streak of randomness.

To every bet-selection put into iron rules there is a stochastical deviation that leads it into meeting every possible situation and at the end to an equal of Loss and Win by a fair pay out, but to a -2,7 (-5,4) by the house edge.

br
winkel

[Breeze88]

Hey All

nice posts in here

so here is my point of view on all that


nearly every system we use and see and hear are based on the Clustering-Illusion and Gambler´s fallacy and thats just because we
write down the outcomes of every spin and think that with the information we have we can nearly predict the next spin.

some people my say now the ball or dice or coin has no memory so the informatiom we gathered are completly worthless....

for example if we toss a fair coin four times and heads showed up  four times in a row we would expect that tails has to show up beacuse
of the previous outcome , but the chance that head or tails shows up are still 50/50 because it sticks to its mathematicaly stochastic behaviour no matter what the previous outcome was.

here is what i think

if we play the game with a system that needs to record all outcomes and place our bets in a certain way because of the records we made , we play our own game with our view on it so that some laws are crossed out and others show up and thats a quit interresting point.

the game changes while you play and the game changes how you play.

but thats just my point of view....


cheerz

[TwoCatSam]

Breeze88

Let's allow what we know and math to butt heads!

Red has hit six in a row.  Math says each spin is a whole new world; could be another table in another casino in another country.  No relation whatsoever.

Red has hit six in a row.  We know because we've seen it hundreds of times--it is rare to see seven reds in a row.  It was rare to see six in a row!  So we expect a black.  Math says it's 50/50.  We say, "Well, yeah, it is--but it's probably going to be black."

I'd bet black over red in an even-chance game.

Sam

[Monte Carlo]

In your example TwoCatSam the odds of the next spin being red/black/green are exactly what they are if one red had occurred or 50 reds in a row. That doesn't change in the short term. The length of a session, any session will always be subject to the law of small numbers and the law of thirds simultaneously and at all times. On the other hand if you plot out the occurrence of red/black in the long term and then apply a one standard deviation Bollinger band to the curve. If the long term trend shows that there is a propensity for black to occur over red, then in the medium term at least one could assume a larger than average number of reds to occur until the spread on deviation from the norm returns to within one std deviation at which point there would be no more advantage.

Monte Carlo

[Monte Carlo]

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