a demonstration of why systems lose

[Herb]

Twocat,

Attack the message.  Explain why your system works, and I will explain why it will not.  We can debate in a civil manner.

When someone posts a system, other members should have the right to demonstrate mathematically why it will not work.  This enables the viewers to gain gambler's intelligence and to save money.  This part of the forum is supposed to be where that takes place.

We all know you can't add two and two and get five.  We all know there is a 2.7% vig on a roulette wheel.  On the 0 1 2 3 bet, it is much higher, something like 8% or so.  We don't need to be constantly reminded like children being told to wear their galoshes in the rain.  Those of us who seriously study the game know the enemy we're up against.

Unfortunately, Many people still fall prey to the Gambler's Fallacy.  Sometimes to help a system player understand the weakness of a system you have to assume that they may not yet understand some of the basics. It's easy for people to make mistakes when they play roulette for the first time after having played other games.  For example, many blackjack players change to roulette and completely overlook the fact that roulette is a game of independent trials.  They're use to playing a game that is not based on independent trials, where the last cards dealt can affect the next games played.  So sometimes you have to point out what may be obvious to other players.
(By the way, you would be amazed as to how many highly intelligent people make this mistake.  It's very common).



If you don't want to debate this, then leave the Darkside.  Quit trying to turn this into a personal fight.

Nobody is disputing your results or your testing.  I for one feel that you are just lucky and that you have yet to get into a large enough volume of spins to prove a positive result for any of the systems.
I am however, not calling you a liar.  Nobody here is.  Your testing has been a heroic effort.

When systems are fun to play, where's the harm in trying your luck.  Everyone has there own timeline.  Some people have better luck with the systems than other people do.  Some people have luck that seems to last a lifetime.

Now regarding the attitude:

I don't understand why you and Mr. Chips decided to come here and pick a fight. I don't know why you are so fired up, but when we hit you back half as hard as you are trying to hit us, you act as though you are shocked and in tears, telling everyone how mean and evil I am.  Please, for the last time, lighten up.  If you want me to give it back to you in kind, then I will.  For now, I'm going to hold back.  If you want to bicker in the pit about how evil I am, then have at it.  I'm sure everyone will play the violin for you. 

I however, would rather make the attempt to just try and get along for now.  Doesn't this sound like the better option?


Sincerely,

Herb.

[Kon-Fu-Sed]

Dear Sam,


NO ONE IS CALLING YOU OR ANYONE A LIER!


It is absolutely possible to say that a system is a losing system without saying that anyone who claim winnings are liers.

Those persons may of course be winners.
(For the time being or for ever will eventually show.)

The SYSTEM (not the inventor/user) may be a losing one nonetheless.


Think like this:

You come up with a math based system.
You win big time with it when you test it for 1000 bets.
Great.

Now, suppose that you post the system because you want to share.
(You would, I know that)
And also suppose ALL members of this board tries your method for 1000 bets each - all of them using different spin-sequences, of course.
And all of them following the method to the letter, of course.

Then you'll end up having a 1,927,000-bets test.

And most probably the total net will be -2.7%

But a lot of people will be winning. One of them were you, doing the very first 1000-bets test.

And just because I say that the SYSTEM is a loser, doesn't mean I say that you or anyone is lying. You just were the lucky ones.
A lot of not-so lucky ones will have lost - and most probably in total lost more than the winners won.


I hope this will bring some good feelings to the start of what I hope will be your best year ever, Sam!
KFS

[ryan08]

@two cat,

you seem to think that showing the maths is a bad idea and I totally disagree with you and I shall explain why.

(herb can vouch for me on this)

not so long ago I used to make, test and play systems, I never understood the maths properly and filled myself with false hope that my system would work long term, I lost alot of money and when I lost I felt shit, no other word for it.
herb explained to me the maths etc, it took me a while to understand, but when I did I was a hell of alot of a better player for it, this was by the way when I turned my efforts to visual ballistics and hot number strategies.

now if I had this information from the start then I couldve saved myself from losing money and by posting the knowledge and information from my experiences I am trying to help people bypass the mistakes I made, that is not being negative at all, in fact you are being negative by wanting this information to come down and if you delete it I will be furious as you will be abusing your position of administrator, that post has as much right to be on this forum as any of your posts, im simply sharing my knowledge.

people have a right to this information and you have no right to stop people from seeing it, and yes I proved the martingale doesn't work and applied it to any other system because maths doesn't change, whatever system you use or whatever progression that underlaying maths is exactly the same.

like you and a few other guys have told us if you have nothing constructive to say then dont say anything at all, so maybe you should think about not posting in this section if you arent going to be constructive. we can either post in here or post on your systems, which would you rather?

PS. I also have nothing against you but your views are somewhat twisted.

[win1win2]

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[ryan08]

how can you say am im wrong when i have proved with maths that i am right, barraccat is also not an independant trial game so my maths cannot be applied to that.

also that is not an extensive test, i can win 200 in a session, when you win 1000 shoes and show me the results i may be more tempted to have a look but until then you havent really shown anything to prove me wrong.

[ryan08]

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