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What does it take to win ?

Started by Arteinvivo, January 11, 2009, 11:52:04 AM

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Arteinvivo

A 50/50 game such as Baccarat will always be tough to beat for the intelletually lazy gambler. Many wish they could stick to a single method of play and beat all possible combinations. But with around 70 hands in a typical shoe we have 2^70 combinations more than the number of atoms in the universe. And we still have these players who expect to win regularly by playing ONE very limited bet selection. You need to be as liquid as possible to win on a constant basis and not be lazy intellectually speaking.

If your ultimate goal is to find a workable solution then you need to put yourself in the same position a fish would be if it was ejected out of the sea, you need to show the same urgent desire to get back to water. Staying below this level of commitment you won't go very far.

lucky_strike

QuoteIf your ultimate goal is to find a workable solution then you need to put yourself in the same position a fish would be if it was ejected out of the sea, you need to show the same urgent desire to get back to water. Staying below this level of commitment you won't go very far.

Okay.

Lets assume we aim to win 10 units.
Then we start from 0 before we start to play because we have not gain any-thing.
0 to 10.

Now it did not happen, win 10 units and we are down -10 units.
Then -10 to 0 as 0 to 10 is the same thing.

Did we got an secound chans to win, break even?
With the same conditions we start with from the begining.

Lets assume it did not happen and we are down -20 units.
Then does any warning bells start to sound in our heads?

I say there is no secret formula to win more then you lose.
The only thing we will find in the end is that we can know your variance regarding our methods, no more or less.

Thanks for a great post.

Cheers Lucky Strike

Arteinvivo

Quote...we can know your variance regarding our methods, no more or less

Hi lucky,

Glad to hear from you.

I can only share some conclusions based on my own experience and observations. We must be flexible and our tactics must be as liquid as possible. Fluctuation, variance regarding a particular bet selection may serve as a yardstick to evaluate where we are in the grand scheme but it is not a tool to make decisions. In fact, for many it's a poor way of making decisions. Economist Irving Fisher said that "stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau" a few weeks before Stock Market Crash of 1929, which was followed by the Great Depression. Trading has teached me one thing, it's not because all of my indicators are green that i have a licence to win the next series of opportunities. Believing that regression to the mean will help us is in a way just pure wishfull thinking, This belief will work 50% of the time, no more or less.

Some atheists argue that much of theology, particularly arguments for the existence of God, is based on wishful thinking because it takes the desired outcome (that a god or gods exist) and tries to prove it on the basis of a premise through reasoning which can be analysed as fallacious, but which may nevertheless be wished "true" in the mind of the believer. Some theologians argue that it is actually atheism which is the product of wishful thinking, in that atheists may not want to believe in any gods or may not want there to be any gods.

In my mind, there is only one certainty with random events, namely the "Cheerio Effect". At times, random events will appear to "fall into" one another, as if pulled together by an attractive force. This is where my research is focused.

lucky_strike


Well i have to reply to this with my poor english, soon.

LS

bliss

Quote from: ArteBelieving that regression to the mean will help us is in a way just pure wishfull thinking, This belief will work 50% of the time, no more or less.

Arte, it may not make you  a flat bet profit but I believe it keeps those "sequences from hell" at arm's length. Maybe this doesn't apply in the Forex market, as the currencies aren't subject to any probability distribution, unlike casino games.

I hope your trading is going well. Are you a purely technical trader? what time frame do you work in?

Arteinvivo

Quote from: Bliss on January 11, 2009, 03:37:23 PM
Arte, it may not make you  a flat bet profit but I believe it keeps those "sequences from hell" at arm's length. Maybe this doesn't apply in the Forex market, as the currencies aren't subject to any probability distribution, unlike casino games.

I hope your trading is going well. Are you a purely technical trader? what time frame do you work in?

Glad to hear from you Bliss, it's been a while since we talk to each other. Bliss, I did not mean regression to the mean is a wrong concept but i think always reacting to a bad sequence thinking things will balance out shortly by itself may not be the optimal reaction. The balancing reaction or equalizing reaction will occur by itself at some point we can only hope it will occur sooner rather than later. A poor reaction based on this concept is to increase our bets because we think things SHOULD balance out over the next series of bets.

QuoteMaybe this doesn't apply in the Forex market, as the currencies aren't subject to any probability distribution, unlike casino games

I created an Excel document in order to receive quotes from metatrader. MT4 acts as a server while my Excel document acts as a client which gave me the possibility to measure changes in price. And i can tell you it's 50/50, that is, 50% of the time price will move say 10 pips up and the other 50% it will move down 10 pips. The big difference i see is that there are patterns which occur every day when price moves and this is these patterns i try to exploit. Just to name one thing which can be observed is that price will tend to oscillate around round numbers such as 1.5000 or 1.5050 or 1.5100 etc. This is just a tiny example but every cue i can get from price action i take it. Every day there is a high and a low, price will retrace at least 80% of the time if it's not more. Many times we can observe a form of consolidation between sessions such as between the american session and the asia session, this is a good place to target a breakout of this range. Etc. etc. etc.

QuoteAre you a purely technical trader? what time frame do you work in?

I try not to box myself into a fixed or rigid form of trading but right now i use only the technical aspects. I have been teached a method which can be used on all time frames but i also use a scalping technique that only target the 10 minutes time frame which is very good with a win rate of 80%.

bliss

Arte, glad to hear you're making money, and, equally importantly, enjoying the new challenge.  :)

Quotei can tell you it's 50/50, that is, 50% of the time price will move say 10 pips up and the other 50% it will move down 10 pips

That's interesting. I wonder if it's possible to find out whether there's a "law of series" for forex? ie; looking at a 10 pip "width", do "singles" occur twice as often as "doubles", which in turn occur twice as often as "trebles" etc. If you can find such a relationship, you might be able to use a semi-mechanical bet selection.


Arteinvivo

Quote from: Bliss on January 11, 2009, 06:04:17 PM
Arte, glad to hear you're making money, and, equally importantly, enjoying the new challenge.  :)

That's interesting. I wonder if it's possible to find out whether there's a "law of series" for forex? ie; looking at a 10 pip "width", do "singles" occur twice as often as "doubles", which in turn occur twice as often as "trebles" etc. If you can find such a relationship, you might be able to use a semi-mechanical bet selection.

I think that if we would measure this during the same hours say 8 to noon every day then we might get something similar to the law of series.

Arteinvivo

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