What Does a Trend Look Like?

[Spike]

>> But why should "anything that takes your fancy" be more likely to win than anything else which takes your fancy?>>>

It wouldn't. It just points out the lack of understanding of how these games work that appears to run amok on gambling forums. Its the ignorant leading the misinformed.

[Arteinvivo]

Show us all the times that it ends after you recognize them and compare that to how many times it continues

50% of the time it continues, 50% of the time it ends after the first win. I mean if you test more than once. In that sense, i agree with Spike "Its the ignorant leading the misinformed". All this bla bla to come to this conclusion: The game is 50/50. Gizmo has just reminded us of this fact. I think your mentor has a better grasp of the game than you.

[Mr J]

You USUALLY will notice a trend AFTER its over. Its easy to look at past spins and spot quite a few trends. The future is the tough part. I'll give an example >>> Spin #1 Red, now give me the trend please.  Ken

[Arteinvivo]

You USUALLY will notice a trend AFTER its over. Its easy to look at past spins and spot quite a few trends. The future is the tough part. I'll give an example >>> Spin #1 Red, now give me the trend please.  Ken

Ken, in games of chance such as roulette what counts is capital preservation. All BS are equal if you play long enough. So after the first spin i might bet Red again or Black depending on my mood but what counts is how you react after the second spins at spin #3.

[bombus]

OK, here's the trend... RED.
Now proove me wrong!

[Mr J]

"what counts is how you react after the second spins at spin #3" --- Umm, okay. Spin #2 is black. So your third spin/bet is what and why? Whatever your bet is, I'll bet the opposite. Do you have an advantage over me? If so, how? Ken

[bombus]

Sorry if I appear ignorant, but I really am trying to get my head around gizmotron's concept of randomness and related wagering.  Are we talking about an event in which all outcomes are equally likely? What is the event? Do we take the event as being an infinite number of outcomes on the roulette wheel? If so, then isn't our perception at each session of roulette play so absurdly fleeting that the effects of long term probability distribution could appear to be solid trends? But they are really just infinite randomness constantly in a state of corrective flux?
Are we talking about intuitively pre-empting a continuous change or instability without any design?
If that is what is required, then I'm in way over my head.
Just street bets throw up enough randomness for me; am I wrong to put blinkers on and eliminate the greater portion of the flux so that I can focus on particular "trends" isn't that a somewhat systematic approach even if my final selections are to be intuitive?  

[Arteinvivo]

"what counts is how you react after the second spins at spin #3" --- Umm, okay. Spin #2 is black. So your third spin/bet is what and why? Whatever your bet is, I'll bet the opposite. Do you have an advantage over me? If so, how? Ken

Why should i have an advantage ? We are all equal in front of the wheel. You don't need to have a reason to bet B or R, it's luck that will determine your outcome. What counts is how you preserve your capital.

[Mr J]

Just so I understand. For that third (or fourth) spin, you will NOT choose red or black for ANY reason? Spin #1 Red, spin #2 Black.  Ken

[bombus]

Mr J. I bet red, you bet black... The house has an advantage over both of us... The trend is, one of us will win or both of us will lose, and that trend will continue forever. After that, it's all up to capital preservation as Arteinvivo puts it.

[Arteinvivo]

Just so I understand. For that third (or fourth) spin, you will NOT choose red or black for ANY reason? Spin #1 Red, spin #2 Black.  Ken

Exact, no reason as there is no reason to favor one over the other.

RBR has as much chance to occur than RBB unless you have found a bug in the universe 

[Mr J]

I do agree, however, some will not. Example >>> These are 8 spins, RRRRRRRR >>> Who reading this will bet on red for the NEXT spin and why? Or bet on black, why?  Ken

[Arteinvivo]

I do agree, however, some will not. Example >>> These are 8 spins, RRRRRRRR >>> Who reading this will bet on red for the NEXT spin and why? Or bet on black, why?  Ken

Do this test... each time you play and are influenced by past results in your choice then record it and at the end of say 1000 records look at the proportion of hit versus misses. You should see something like 500 hits vs 500 misses at +/- 3 standard deviation. In other words, this is normal distribution without any advantage. So if there is no advantage why would you lose your time in trying to find a good BS ? What counts is capital preservation, the rest depends on luck.

[bombus]

Hmmm 8 reds in a row. I think I'll bet on number 7 in the fourth race at Randwick.
Gimme a break, this is this rbr stuff is just putting things into little boxes and can reveal nothing.

Here, read down the columns...

20   30   24   16   14
18   26   22   13   15
34   23   11   13   12
12   20   33   18   20
12   21   32   24   15
10   32   18   11   25
27   31   19   16   11
24   9   33   24   14
29   29   24   11   29
16   31   18   36   32
12   36   12   17   32
27   30   27   9   21
14   32   14   13   27
11   18   16   36   33
36   32   17   29   11
33   36   16   19   30
16   13   30   13   27
28   26   33   9   29
24   11   13   35   15
13   14   10   14   12

What is your next bet, and why?

[Mr J]

I was asking for input from anyone that had an answer of red or black and why. Believe me, they are out there. "Do this test" --- Dont need to. I've been "testing" for 7 years and by process of elimination, I know what NOT to test.  Ken

[Mr J]

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