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The Group and the Law

Started by Number Six, April 02, 2009, 08:57:40 PM

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Number Six

Greetings  8)

Study group for the law of the third.  Objective: to fully comprehend the law phenomenon and explore techniques of exploiting it in the roulette.  Let's try to keep it straightforward and concentrate on philosophising, avoiding overelaborate mathematical formulas that send people to sleep...and the worn-out adage "...it's a game of independent trails. Past spins don't influence future results..."  We don't need the egg heads blinding us with fancy-schmancy figures that show why the law won't yield a long-term advantage, or why it is illogical to chart spins when the wheel has no memory.  Convoluted notions of long-term "blah" are irrelevant here as we are only interested in the recurring short-term distribution and the sequences created therein.  Where the law is concerned short-term + short-term + more short-term does not = long-term. It just, and for ever, means short-term.

What is the law?
It's a statistical average, which on the surface may seem insignificant.  But many cannot interpret, or choose to overlook, the power of the Law as an offensive approach; it is a popular consideration that no conventional system can stand the test of time against the roulette wheel because of the negative expectancy.  Can this be accepted as truth?  Probably...because systems are incapable of sparring with the house edge and few are developed with enough intelligence to compensate for randomness.  The strict association of rules and ideas leads to dangerous levels of hyperfocus and players begin to misunderstand their very own system and actually roulette in general.

Sun Tzu said: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.  If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.  If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.

Regardless of the amount of trials conducted the statistics will always illustrate that in an interval (or rotation) of 37 spins an average of 24 numbers will arrive.  In a sample of 26 million separate trials, the lower and upper limits were revealed as 14 and 34.

100 million trials can be run, but the results will remain largely robust...implying that only the lower and upper limits are liable to change from sample to sample.  Does this suggest that roulette produces accidental boundary values and can to an extent be predicted, if a phenomenon is apparently inherent in the short-term distribution of the numbers?  Or is it nothingness, a fallacious detail to be ignored?  Well, ponder this: only one number repeating every 37 spins will deliver consistent winnings – and it would take hundreds of trillions of trials to find a situation in which all 37 numbers arrived in 37 consecutive spins.  The underlying point of this group is to search for effective ways of abusing the anomalies in short-term distribution.  And as these anomalies are habitual, success is a credible goal.

But does the law really matter if it is erratic?
True, the law is volatile and won't continuously behave in the manner expected. Because it is a shapeshifter, formulas must be devised and applied to signal the best possible betting conditions; this becomes the foundation of an adaptive strategy.

Many formulas can be invented and each employed differently – one can be managed independently or several combined and used simultaneously, thus automatically maximising the method's effectiveness in event-hunting. 

Basic Analysis
Over a 37-spin interval the law will manifest itself by dividing the numbers into three classes: Hit/Unhit/Repeater.  In the main, an average of 13 numbers won't arrive...so 13 numbers will repeat.  Fundamentally, in 37 spins, the law provides:
•   13 numbers that hit twice
•   11 numbers that hit once
•   13 numbers that didn't hit
Obviously these averages aren't set in stone.  They are the result of an equation and prone to fluctuation.  The million dollar question that stumps players and forces them to dismiss the law as worthless: what to bet on, how and why?  For sure one thing is certain – the events that generate profit have to be nailed within the margins of the first spin and the outcome of the thirty-seventh; capitalising on short-term distribution (with Poisson) is paramount and the essence of exploiting the law. Looking beyond 37 spins is unacceptable as this is the realm of binomial distribution, by which stage the law will have diminished.

If you have any ideas or systems/strategies/methods that are (or you think could be) related to the law and short-term distribution, then you are encouraged to post them in the group and we can set about evaluating them.  Any concepts you pick up here and would like to take in a new direction, feel free to start a fresh thread so our deliberations can stay clear and uncluttered.

:)

Number Six

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