## …a quick word on: VARIATION and GAME TREES

Started by Number Six, April 05, 2009, 06:13:27 PM

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#### Number Six

...a quick word on: VARIATION and GAME TREES

Variation is essential for adding fluidity to a conventional system that would otherwise be slowly demolished by the randomness of the wheel.  A football team that constantly uses the same approach in every game becomes easy to defend against, easy to break down and easy to kill off – good managers are always looking for ways to alter the configuration of the team and thus ensure the highest possible chance of winning through tactical decision.

Regarding methods based on the law, the player will be betting mainly on either of two events happening within the given interval: the arrival of unhit numbers or the arrival of numbers that have already hit once.  It's possible to also bet on the arrival of numbers that have already hit twice, but going beyond this frontier is unsafe and unnecessary.

The player can introduce variation into a session simply by periodically switching bet selection between multiple data streams (the intervals) and the classes of numbers.  Each selection should be moulded to capitalise on a particular set of conditions, and is created by its own formula.

A game tree (a type of theory concerning two-player turn-based games), can be applied in moderation to roulette as it is a game involving two parties – the wheel produces a number within its parameters and the player reacts to that result in a way they see fit.  The game tree is a directed graph that comprises all possible moves from a specific position (an example is in noughts and crosses, where a complete game tree can be searched quickly in order to calculate the best move).  Game trees can be useful for both mechanical systems and situational methods.  In roulette, game trees do exist when the tactic of variation is active but they are rather small, since the moves that encompass a conventional attack are pretty limited.  Imagine the player has a partially mechanical system consisting of three formulas, meaning they are on the hunt for three separate betting opportunities (when one appears, the system attacks for the remainder of the interval or until all goals have been accomplished).  The formulas are incorporated into a single game tree, and the game tree displays a mental pictorial idea of how the attack ought to pan out...prior to the attack the game tree is hypothetical, and proceeds to assume a solid shape as soon as the attack begins.  Throughout a session against the wheel the player faces junctures at the result of every spin, in which they must see if any formulas point to favourable conditions.  If the conditions prove to be correct, the player should visualise a game tree and be aware of how the strongest formula at that precise moment will allow the system or method to attack successfully.  The shortest route to a catching a winner should be considered superior to all others and is called the principal variation.  It may be noted that game trees are only present when the method is built on more than one formula, as one formula will produce just one line of attack and no variation.

Game trees are like maps, which change according to the outcome of each spin and aid the player by showing him where to go next, the destinations being one or a part of numerous goals.  At a dead end – a loss – there are always corners to be turned and detours to be taken.  Multiple formulas infuse natural variation into a conventional system, removing elements of mechanicalism, while game trees help the player to stay disciplined and in control and avoid ruinous mistakes.

It is paramount that the player understands their method and the engines that drive it.  They should know exactly how it wins and why, where it is vulnerable and when to make it operational, put it into stand-by mode, and close it down.  Once a method has been learnt, the game tree emerges without difficulty and trains the player to think on his feet!

A complex theory for online play...using a conventional system with multiple formulas
During an attack the game tree will be developing in other areas, as the system conducts virtual attacks via the dormant formulas (but unfortunately the player will never be able to see the complete picture...the virtual attacks will be unprocessed by the player's brain and stay hidden).  Rarely, albeit occasionally, the formula the real attack was centred on may grow weak if the spin results are hostile and the system repeatedly fails to reach its objectives.  The conditions become unfavourable, and so by default improve somewhere else.  A computer program could track the real attack and also simulate the virtual ones, always giving a graphic illustration of which formula is exposing the major betting opportunities.  A greater degree of variation can be induced by switching bet selection to ride the dominant formula.

Sun Tzu said: According as circumstances are favourable, one should modify one's plans.

Feel free to discuss variation and game trees in this thread.

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