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References?

Started by Homeito, April 20, 2009, 05:11:06 AM

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Homeito

Hello,

Number Six...

As it seems that you know the Law of Thirds exceptionally well I wonder if you can please point me (all of us of course) to references?
I mean where the law is showed in a math or statistical context/site and not on gambling related sites.

I have searched the Internet for that but can not find anything about this law except on gambling sites.
Maybe I google the wrong search-words but I can not find anything "really scientific".
Your texts is the closest I have found...


Best regards
Homeito Bemek


PS.
In my search I found this text on a gamblingsite (online roulette in UK):

QuoteLaw of The 3rd System
This system is based on a statistical theory called The Law of The Third.
Let´s take a quick look at how the Law of The third, which is a theory about statistical distribution, applies to roulette.
Looking at a European roulette wheel with 16 black pockets, 16 red pockets and a green zero pocket: in total 37...
You can always trust someone with such knowledge and ability to add...
8)

Shorty

I don't think you will find much (if anything) on the Law of Thirds because it isn't actually a law. More like an observation.

bliss


winkel

Hi Homeito,

search for "Gauss", who found this distribution

and search for "Poisson" or Poisson-Distribution", who put the math on it.

br
winkel

Number Six

Homeito,

Of course, Shorty is right. It is not a law at all. More of a phenomenon. As for references, there are very few, if any, on the internet. There are a lot of sellers pushing flawed progression systems based in the law, but none of them fully explain what the law is and why it can be used. Although the law is easy enough to understand, exploiting it is a whole different ball game. There is one particular seller who created a piece of software to exploit the law but it seems his method, for some reason or another, doesn't work. His website is filled with detailed theory. I'll PM you the address.

Homeito

Hello,

Thank you to all for the information.
It is much appreciated.


Tomorrow is Google-time 8)

Bliss I read your post... Will re-read it tomorrow.
Maybe I will understand then.
Thank you.


Best regards
Homeito Bemek


"Roulette Misconceptions debunked by Homeito Bemek"
nolinks://web.telia.com/~u35312066/

(Nothing for sale and no advertising - only what the title says)

Homeito

Hello,

This is a very interesting subject.
I just wish I know a lot more math than I do...

One thing is that it seems as each explanation explains different things.
As everybody has his own interpretation.
I think I will have to investigate my spins to see myself what happen on a daily basis live in a casino.

Later.


Best regards
Homeito Bemek

Number Six

Homeito,

Read a little on Poisson at wikipedia, or google it and you may find extracts from various books by acredited mathematicians and gaming experts explaining that the underlying point of the law of the third is that you would have to run hundreds of trillions of trials before you found one where all 37 numbers arrived in a rotation of 37 consecutive spins. Of course, they don't call it the "law of the third", all they do is dispell gaming myths and teach the rookie gambler about basic probability theory. Remember that the law is just a statistical average and doesn't follow any concrete rules. Exploiting it is difficult, but considering that at least several numbers are pretty much guaranteed to repeat during the rotation, it is not impossible. The trick is to design a system with different inbuilt elements that both compensate for and capitalise on an array of circumstances.

Homeito

Hello,

Number Six...

Thank you for the hints.
My "problems" are two:
A: I do not know enough math to really follow what is explained in math... (in this case  8))

B: I am really not interested in what happen in trillions of spins or math averages or such things.
I want to know what happen during a day or even less.
Or better: What can I expect while I am there?

I can use my 700000 spins as one long stream to collect data but that is not correct the way I look at it.
The casino closes (at least where I use to go and Wiesbaden too) and everything is restarted the next day.
So the flow of numbers will be interrupted (how shall I express it?)... Do the formulas and math theories calculate with that?
Maybe that affects things to be just a little "off-maths"?
Maybe not?
Maybe I will investigate such things?

Just for fun if nothing else.


BTW. I wrote
QuoteAs everybody has his own interpretation.
above but mean "As IF everybody...".


Best regards
Homeito Bemek


Number Six

The law of the third IS an average. It's nothing else. As for your 700,000 spins, you can use them as one continuous data stream, mix them up, reverse them, turn them inside out. It doesn't matter because each outcome is random.

If you were to divide the 700,000 outcomes into intervals of 37, you would get 18,918 complete separate sets. If you counted how many different numbers appeared in each set, added up the total and divided it by 18,918, you would get a figure of approximately 24. On average, in every 37 spin interval, 24 numbers will hit and 13 won't.

Point being, if you went to a casino now and used a well-designed law of the third system, the probability that you will leave in profit is overwhelming.





Number Six

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