## And yet another(?) take...

Started by Homeito, May 03, 2009, 07:25:04 AM

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#### Homeito

Hello,

I have been investigating this thing called "Law of the Third"...
In my own way...

And I found that there actually IS a law!

I started with the Wiesbaden spins and I investigated them on a dayly basis. That is: I aborted everything when the day ended.
That was how I found this "law" but to really test the theory that it exists I had to do it with a RNG.
Not to generate "enough" spins but to be able to use more numbers than 37.
You will see why in a moment...

The following is a PRELIMINARY RNG-ONLY work but the figures are OK (but the decimals are simply truncated).
Each cycle was run 10 million times...
I will post a much more detailed investigation to my site later. And it will be with Wiesbaden spins also.
(But I do not know when. This post is for VLS members...)

This table shows the AVERAGE amount of numbers (and the %) that:
1) Slept through the cycle
2) Won exactly ONCE in the cycle
3) Won MORE than once (repeated at least once) in the cycle

I investigated all cycles from 6 spins to 74.

The left part shows results when I used all 37 numbers.
There is nothing unususal in those results.

The right part shows results when I used as many numbers as there are spins in the cycle.
For example: In a cycle of 6 spins a max of 6 numbers can appear. So I counted how many of 6.
And in a cycle of 37 spins a max of 37 numbers can appear. So I counted how many of 37.
And in a cycle of 74 spins a max of 74 (!) numbers can appear. So I counted how many of 74.
That is why I had to use a RNG for this investigation: I wanted to use more than 37 numbers in cycles of more than 37 spins.
I wanted to verify what I saw when I used up to 37 numbers.

And there it is: THE "LAW"... Check the %...

But it is not really 1/3...
And consistant... well... rather... Maybe the differences in % are because of the small numbers... (2/6, 12/35 ...)
I do not know. Maybe some math knowing member can tell us?

The column "CLen & NumAmt" shows the CycleLength (spins) and the amount of used numbers: They are the same.

`         Using 37 numbers in all cycles                Using DIFFERENT amount of numbersCycle-   Slept           1 win           >1 win        CLen &    Slept           1 win           >1 winLength   Amt    %        Amt    %        Amt    %      NumAmt    Amt    %        Amt    %        Amt    %    6    31.39  84.83     5.23  14.14     0.37   1.01       6     2.00  33.49     2.41  40.18     1.57  26.32    7    30.54  82.54     5.93  16.05     0.51   1.40       7     2.37  33.99     2.77  39.65     1.84  26.34    8    29.71  80.31     6.60  17.84     0.67   1.83       8     2.74  34.36     3.14  39.26     2.10  26.37    9    28.91  78.14     7.22  19.53     0.85   2.31       9     3.11  34.64     3.50  38.97     2.37  26.38   10    28.13  76.03     7.81  21.12     1.05   2.84      10     3.48  34.86     3.87  38.74     2.63  26.38   11    27.37  73.97     8.36  22.60     1.26   3.41      11     3.85  35.04     4.24  38.55     2.90  26.39   12    26.63  71.97     8.87  23.99     1.48   4.02      12     4.22  35.20     4.60  38.39     3.16  26.40   13    25.91  70.03     9.35  25.28     1.73   4.67      13     4.59  35.33     4.97  38.26     3.43  26.40   14    25.21  68.13     9.80  26.50     1.98   5.35      14     4.96  35.43     5.34  38.16     3.69  26.40   15    24.53  66.30    10.22  27.62     2.24   6.07      15     5.32  35.52     5.70  38.06     3.96  26.40   16    23.86  64.50    10.60  28.66     2.52   6.82      16     5.69  35.60     6.07  37.98     4.22  26.40   17    23.22  62.76    10.96  29.64     2.81   7.59      17     6.06  35.67     6.44  37.90     4.49  26.41   18    22.59  61.06    11.29  30.53     3.10   8.39      18     6.43  35.74     6.81  37.84     4.75  26.41   19    21.98  59.41    11.60  31.35     3.41   9.22      19     6.80  35.80     7.17  37.78     5.01  26.41   20    21.39  57.81    11.88  32.11     3.72  10.07      20     7.16  35.84     7.54  37.73     5.28  26.41   21    20.81  56.24    12.14  32.81     4.04  10.93      21     7.53  35.89     7.91  37.69     5.54  26.41   22    20.24  54.72    12.37  33.44     4.37  11.82      22     7.90  35.93     8.28  37.65     5.81  26.41   23    19.70  53.24    12.58  34.02     4.70  12.72      23     8.27  35.97     8.64  37.60     6.07  26.41   24    19.17  51.81    12.77  34.53     5.05  13.64      24     8.64  36.01     9.01  37.57     6.34  26.41   25    18.65  50.41    12.95  35.00     5.39  14.58      25     9.00  36.03     9.38  37.54     6.60  26.41   26    18.14  49.04    13.10  35.42     5.74  15.52      26     9.37  36.06     9.75  37.51     6.86  26.42   27    17.65  47.72    13.24  35.79     6.09  16.48      27     9.74  36.09    10.12  37.48     7.13  26.41   28    17.17  46.43    13.36  36.11     6.45  17.45      28    10.11  36.11    10.48  37.46     7.39  26.41   29    16.71  45.17    13.46  36.39     6.81  18.42      29    10.48  36.14    10.85  37.43     7.66  26.42   30    16.26  43.95    13.55  36.62     7.18  19.41      30    10.85  36.16    11.22  37.40     7.92  26.42   31    15.82  42.76    13.62  36.82     7.54  20.40      31    11.21  36.18    11.59  37.39     8.18  26.41   32    15.39  41.61    13.68  36.98     7.91  21.40      32    11.58  36.20    11.95  37.36     8.45  26.42   33    14.98  40.48    13.73  37.11     8.28  22.40      33    11.95  36.22    12.32  37.35     8.71  26.41   34    14.57  39.39    13.76  37.20     8.65  23.39      34    12.32  36.23    12.69  37.34     8.98  26.41   35    14.18  38.33    13.78  37.26     9.03  24.40      35    12.68  36.25    13.06  37.32     9.24  26.42   36    13.79  37.29    13.79  37.29     9.40  25.41      36    13.05  36.27    13.42  37.30     9.51  26.42   37    13.42  36.28    13.79  37.29     9.77  26.42      37    13.42  36.28    13.79  37.29     9.77  26.42   38    13.06  35.30    13.78  37.26    10.14  27.43      38    13.79  36.29    14.16  37.28    10.04  26.42   39    12.70  34.35    13.76  37.21    10.52  28.43      39    14.16  36.31    14.53  37.26    10.30  26.42   40    12.36  33.42    13.73  37.13    10.89  29.44      40    14.52  36.32    14.90  37.25    10.56  26.42   41    12.03  32.51    13.70  37.03    11.26  30.44      41    14.89  36.33    15.27  37.24    10.83  26.42   42    11.70  31.63    13.65  36.91    11.63  31.44      42    15.26  36.34    15.63  37.23    11.09  26.42   43    11.38  30.78    13.60  36.77    12.00  32.44      43    15.63  36.35    16.00  37.22    11.36  26.42   44    11.08  29.95    13.54  36.61    12.37  33.43      44    16.00  36.36    16.37  37.21    11.62  26.42   45    10.78  29.14    13.47  36.43    12.73  34.42      45    16.36  36.37    16.74  37.20    11.88  26.42   46    10.49  28.35    13.40  36.23    13.10  35.41      46    16.73  36.38    17.11  37.19    12.15  26.42   47    10.20  27.59    13.32  36.01    13.46  36.39      47    17.10  36.39    17.47  37.18    12.41  26.42   48     9.93  26.84    13.24  35.78    13.82  37.36      48    17.47  36.40    17.84  37.17    12.68  26.42   49     9.66  26.11    13.15  35.55    14.18  38.33      49    17.83  36.40    18.21  37.16    12.94  26.42   50     9.40  25.41    13.05  35.29    14.53  39.29      50    18.20  36.41    18.57  37.15    13.21  26.42   51     9.14  24.72    12.95  35.02    14.89  40.24      51    18.57  36.42    18.94  37.14    13.47  26.42   52     8.90  24.05    12.85  34.75    15.24  41.19      52    18.94  36.43    19.31  37.14    13.73  26.42   53     8.66  23.40    12.75  34.46    15.58  42.13      53    19.31  36.43    19.68  37.13    14.00  26.42   54     8.42  22.77    12.64  34.16    15.93  43.06      54    19.68  36.44    20.05  37.13    14.26  26.42   55     8.19  22.15    12.52  33.85    16.27  43.98      55    20.04  36.45    20.41  37.12    14.53  26.42   56     7.97  21.55    12.40  33.53    16.61  44.90      56    20.41  36.45    20.78  37.11    14.79  26.42   57     7.76  20.97    12.28  33.21    16.94  45.81      57    20.78  36.46    21.15  37.11    15.06  26.42   58     7.55  20.41    12.16  32.88    17.28  46.70      58    21.15  36.46    21.52  37.10    15.32  26.42   59     7.34  19.86    12.04  32.54    17.61  47.59      59    21.52  36.47    21.89  37.10    15.58  26.42   60     7.14  19.32    11.91  32.20    17.93  48.47      60    21.88  36.48    22.25  37.09    15.85  26.42   61     6.95  18.80    11.78  31.85    18.25  49.34      61    22.25  36.48    22.62  37.09    16.11  26.42   62     6.76  18.29    11.65  31.49    18.57  50.20      62    22.62  36.48    22.99  37.08    16.38  26.42   63     6.58  17.79    11.52  31.14    18.89  51.05      63    22.99  36.49    23.36  37.08    16.64  26.42   64     6.40  17.31    11.39  30.78    19.20  51.89      64    23.35  36.49    23.72  37.07    16.91  26.42   65     6.23  16.84    11.25  30.42    19.51  52.73      65    23.72  36.50    24.10  37.07    17.17  26.42   66     6.06  16.39    11.11  30.05    19.81  53.55      66    24.09  36.50    24.46  37.06    17.43  26.42   67     5.90  15.94    10.98  29.68    20.11  54.36      67    24.46  36.51    24.83  37.06    17.70  26.42   68     5.74  15.51    10.84  29.31    20.41  55.16      68    24.83  36.51    25.20  37.06    17.96  26.42   69     5.58  15.09    10.70  28.94    20.70  55.95      69    25.19  36.52    25.56  37.05    18.23  26.42   70     5.43  14.69    10.56  28.56    20.99  56.74      70    25.56  36.52    25.93  37.05    18.49  26.42   71     5.28  14.29    10.42  28.18    21.28  57.51      71    25.93  36.52    26.30  37.04    18.76  26.42   72     5.14  13.90    10.29  27.81    21.56  58.27      72    26.30  36.53    26.67  37.04    19.02  26.42   73     5.00  13.53    10.15  27.43    21.84  59.02      73    26.66  36.53    27.04  37.04    19.28  26.42   74     4.87  13.16    10.01  27.06    22.11  59.77      74    27.03  36.53    27.40  37.04    19.55  26.42`

And as I see the question coming I will answer it now:
No, I do not know how this information can be used to create a winning system.
Not today.

But I have a conclusion:

The Law of Thirds exists but in roulette it is only "useful" for...
1) 37 spins on a 0-wheel
2) 38 spins on a 00-wheel
3) 36 spins on a non-zero wheel

Best regards,
Homeito Bemek

#### bombus

Quote from: Homeito on May 03, 2009, 07:25:04 AM

But I have a conclusion:

The Law of Thirds exists but in roulette it is only "useful" for...
1) 37 spins on a 0-wheel
2) 38 spins on a 00-wheel
3) 36 spins on a non-zero wheel

Best regards,
Homeito Bemek

Hi Homeito,

Thanks for the post & table,

Do you consider this conclusion only valid for betting single numbers, or valid for all combinations of number bets?

Cheers,
bombus.

#### Homeito

Hello,

Bombus...

You made me think of this! Thank you.

The table is valid for a NO-zero wheel in these cases:
Singles: 36 spins
Splits: 18 spins
Streets: 12 spins
Corners: 9 spins
Double-streets: 6 spins
Because the NO-zero wheel can be equally divided into 36, 18, 12, 9 and 6 parts.

And for the 00-wheel it is:
Singles: 38 spins
Splits: 19 spins
But that is all.

For the 0-wheel the table is only valid for 37 spins because we can only use 37 equal parts of the wheel.

All numbers or groups of numbers that are used must have equal chance to win.
That is why the "always use 37 numbers" table does not show the characteristics of the "law" other than for 37 spins:
Approximately 36% or 13 No-winners, 37.5% or 14 1-time winners and 26.5% or 10 multi-winners. The characteristics are the %.
I mean look at the multi-winner % through the whole table... You do not have to be a rocket-scientist to see that there is a "law" or something.

Unfortunately the 0- and 00-roulette-wheel can not be divided in equal parts corresponding to roulette-bets other than 37 or 38 (and 19 for the 00).

If no one has done it when I post the results of the final investigation at my site I can try to investigate the other bets for single-zero also.
But I am not sure of the results because there is the zero and it will win. Maybe it will complicate things...?

Best regards,
Homeito Bemek

#### bombus

It's interesting that you say this Homeito, because I think this is probably the reason that the law keeps running into trouble (single 0 wheels). We keep trying to make a square plug fit into a round hole.

*Thinking out loud now*...

The 37 number intervals are open-ended, and therefore are grossly overlapped. So when the law dictates to bet on an event likely to occur within our chosen 37-number interval, the event might not occur because the law from an overlapping interval dictates the event is not likely to occur.

For any chosen 37-number interval, the actual overlapping interval length is...

37x36x35x34x33x32x31x30x29............x9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1 at both ends = a very, very big number.

So the 37-number intervals then are still bound up in the law of large numbers. The question is at what point does the overlapped nature of this huge interval cease to affect the balance of the chosen 37-number interval?

Now this is starting to feel like the nature of random numbers because they behave like the rest of the universe in that at first things are chaotic, but through some universally intrinsic force the chaos slowly develops into harmony, but we are trying to see this long awaited harmony within 37 numbers. Even the results from a brand new roulette wheel spun for the first 37 times would be governed by this phenomenon.

Now, for the moment that you are going to overlap the numbers, you might as well forget all about 37-number intervals, in fact all intervals. They are no longer relevant. Also, the zero could be included as it would no longer be a question of evening out the interval.

Thinking about this, I suspect that it will finally be number overlapping methods that take best advantage of the Law of the Third.

#### Spike

but through some universally intrinsic force the chaos slowly develops into harmony>>

Not in roulette it doesn't. There is no harmony in random outcomes, just randomness. Quit looking for something that isn't there.

#### bombus

Everything strives for harmony... everything!

...even roulette numbers.

No one can deny the fact that over a very large stream of numbers, every number will appear as often as every other number, period.

Randomness in roulette is just our limited, time captured perception of this long stream.

The Law of the Third appears to be the Fat Controller (of Thomas The Tank Engine fame) that shunts the tracks for the random number trains to run on so they all arrive at the harmony station.

#### Number Six

Quote from: bombus

Thinking about this, I suspect that it will finally be number overlapping methods that take best advantage of the Law of the Third.

This is what I call purple patches...when two or more overlapping intervals lead to events that are equally as likely to occur in one interval as in the other. Of course, it's just a theory, which I demonstrated in the Hurried Splits Test - Part 2

#### bombus

Quote from: Number Six on May 04, 2009, 11:14:59 AM
This is what I call purple patches...when two or more overlapping intervals lead to events that are equally as likely to occur in one interval as in the other. Of course, it's just a theory, which I demonstrated in the Hurried Splits Test - Part 2

Hi, 6.
Yes, I have studied the hurried splits tests, and although they are very interesting, I think with test 2 you may have put the cart before the horse, so to speak. The 2nd test only deals with overlapping the intervals, and not the numbers themselves. I think to really take advantage of the Law the numbers need to be overlapped also. In my opinion, the numbers in your hurried splits are much to tidy for a chaotic environment like roulette.

All overlapping the intervals really does is speed up the attacking action. The old maxim, short cuts lead to long delays springs to mind.

Here's how I think it could be done, using splits.

A). Arrange the numbers into groups however you decide. Individual numbers should appear in multiple groups. (This will allow for horizontal and vertical splits).

B). Find a consistently achievable hit rate (target) for the groups over a suitable interval.

C). Using A & B, calculate the optimum number of spins to track for each attack/interval.

D). Track for (C) spins, then attack the single group that first approaches the expected target within the interval.

E). If more than 1 group approaches the target at the same rate, continue tracking until 1 group takes the lead, then attack that group, or all leading groups reach the target. Then the attack would be focused on the remaining groups yet to reach the target, as per point D).

F). Ending the attack:  e.g. Target = 10 hits, track for (C) spins, group 1 has 6 hits, target reached in 4 hits, attack group 1 for 4 wins, or 4 losses whichever comes first, attack ends here.

Of course all this has to be finely tuned and balanced with a flat betting profit in mind.

#### Number Six

Bombus,

Yes, it was a hurried test and at the time I really couldn't be bothered elaborating. But intervals are made up of number sequences and a new interval is spawned from every outcome...so doesn't that mean the numbers are themselves overlapping? In the test, I tracked from spin 1 +1 +2, so intervals within three spins of each other. It shouldn't really be done like that. I think there should be a larger gap between the intervals, so they become basically anomalous but still overlap enough to produce purple patches. I have messed around with Project A, which was the splits system, and I've decided that the law cannot be relied upon to manifest among the splits strongly enough to exploit it. Any system should be designed around the single numbers. You are right that, if we were to create a system with an element of mechanicalism, then everything would have to be balanced correctly otherwise it would fail like so many others fail. We would have to try in some way to incorporate sufficient rules so as to automatically compensate for pure randomness.

Dividing the pleins into groups is no problem. I like the idea of groups. For tracking, I think there should be a maximum phase of spins...for example 18, and then up to a 19-spin attack. We'd have to identify "watersheds", points at which it is opportune to bet. Also, the attack doesn't have to be ceaseless throughout the whole phase. We can go virtual at moments when a clear betting opportunity is not available. Applying tactical caution may help us to keep the system a flat betting strategy.

#### Number Six

What is the maximum delay we can have between tracking intervals while still allowing them to overlap enough?

[table=,]
Interval 1,Sub-Stream 1, Sub-Stream 2
Spin, Spin, Spin
1,-,-
2,-,-
3,-,-
4,-,-
5,-,-
6,-,-
7,-,-
8,-,-
9,-,-
10,1,-
11,2,-
12,3,-
13,4,-
14,5,-
15,6,-
16,7,-
17,8,-
18,9,-
19,10,1
20,11,2
21,12,3
22,13,4
23,14,5
24,15,6
25,16,7
26,17,8
27,18,9
28,19,10
29,20,11
30,21,12
31,22,13
32,23,14
33,24,15
34,25,16
35,26,17
36,27,18
37,28,19
1,29,20
2,30,21
3,31,22
4,32,23
5,33,24
6,34,25
7,35,26
8,36,27
9,37,28
10,1,29
11,2,30
12,3,31
13,4,32
14,5,33
15,6,34
16,7,35
17,8,36
18,9,37
19,10,1
[/table]

The table shows a 9-spin delay between tracking three intervals. The three only fully overlapped for one spin, so a delay of nine spins is too much. And this is going on the assumption that every interval will always last for 37 spins. Does it have any meaning?

Time to begin a new thread on sector betting brainstorming!

-