Proof of a HG

[Spike]

the bets may be equal but>>

You're not understanding the word 'equal' and how it applies here.

>>But If you do the math you will clearly see that, in terms of investment/return/probability ratio, both bets (and any other bets for that matter) are perfectly equal.>>

Exactomundo. Thats why I play the EC's. They are exploitable and the inside is not, as far as I can see. As both pay equal amounts, why would I even consider the inside.

[Tangram]

The odds may be equal but the variance isn't. You can maximise your chances of making a profit by playing high variance bets like a single number, but you will also maximise your chance of losing everything.

[Spike]

The odds may be equal but the variance isn't. >>>

Mind giving the math details on this? I don't think this is true, but I'm always open to learning something new.

[Tangram]

Spike,

According to the maths, the basic rule is that fewer bets are better, and bold play is better than timid play assuming a negative expectation game. If you have an advantage, timid play and more bets is better. If you are aiming for a goal such as doubling your bank, the best strategy is a single bet on one of the even chances. In the UK with le partage your chance of success is 49.3%. For this goal, any other bet or series of bets will give a lower probability.

To answer the question - will you be ahead when you quit? depends on how many bets you make, and what they are. You can bet on 1,2,3.... up to say 24 numbers, and whatever you choose, the average result is a loss of £(1/37) each spin (ie; the odds are equal for all bets). So if you had time for 370 bets, the average loss would be £10. But, if you bet on fewer numbers rather than more, then the variability around this average will be higher. The variability will be highest on a single number, and least betting on 2 dozens. e.g. if you make only 10 bets then the most you could win betting 2 dozens is 10 units (flat betting), but if you get only 1 hit betting a single number then you will have won much more. The higher the variability of outcomes, the higher the chance that the actual result will be further away from the average, either bigger or smaller. Because on average you make a loss, your best chance to be ahead when you quit is when the variability is high, so you should go for the 35:1 payout. As I mentioned in the previous post, this choice also increases the chance that your loss will be much worse than average, but that's not the issue.

[Spike]

But, if you bet on fewer numbers rather than more, then the variability around this average will be higher.>>>

I think we have a different understanding of what variability means.

[Arteinvivo]

But, if you bet on fewer numbers rather than more, then the variability around this average will be higher.>>>

I think we have a different understanding of what variability means.

I am always amused and amased to see someone who pretends knowing what is randomness not knowing this simple truth or concept. Variability has only one meaning. The amplitude of the swing when you bet on one number is proportional to length of the pendulum. The maximum length of the pendulum on a roulette wheel is 1/37 with one number and minimum length is 18/37 when you bet Red/Black. The longer is the pendulum the wider will be the movement of the swing. Capiche ? This is what variability means around a point of reference.

[Spike]

Variability has only one meaning.>>

My bad, I meant 'variance'. The tech definition is 'the square of the standard deviation', but amost nobody means that when they use the word. What they usually mean is 'different from expectation', like neg ot positive variance. We used it all the time in BJ, in that the massive neg variance that pro players can encounter will often force them out of the business.

[Spike]

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