Gambler's Fallacy vs Even Distribution

[col1879]

That means only a third or less (less than 50%) has the BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB

[gizmotron]

@gizmo.

Whatever. There will always be an excuse.

Not true. Just like when I decided to share what my method is to a few at a time I'm now going to prove what I can do in a live chat. Later, when my internet connection gets back to normal, I will do it right here on this forum.

[darrynf]

That means only a third or less (less than 50%) has the BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB

there are many theory's and math explanations in roulette, i believe what i believe.
I could be wrong and i could be right.

one thing i know repeats happen as much as singles so how is that 25% to singles ?

[darrynf]

Not true. Just like when I decided to share what my method is to a few at a time I'm now going to prove what I can do in a live chat. Later, when my internet connection gets back to normal, I will do it right here on this forum.

lol yet its normal enough to post !

always something with him lol

[col1879]

*****************if you test a large spin sample you will roughly find the same amount of these 3 constellations embedded. if you dont believe me, test it out. Gotta go.***********************

Even if that is true (probably is, the more I think about it!), when I am sitting down with my can of coke and doing my 20 spins in play mode, I am not playing the previous players 20 spins or the next players 20 spins, I am in the middle 20, playing my own spins.

The link in the overall chain of infinity is broken.

Of course I have my own long life time chain of links eg 20 spins + 20 spins + 20 spins etc and who is to say if they are favourable links or unfavourable links that I get in my own life time chain? Lady Luck!

[MauiSunset]

@maui,

I know its not back up, that was just an example.

Its what I believe (more so for RNG), you could say its not true (its no different to flicking a coin).

anyway I never bet on colours, the problem is you dont know what percentage it should be, its all guess work.

its also possible for the same colour to continue for 100 or more spins (as far as I know it dosent happen but its possible).
I believe the longer one colour stays the sooner it will change due to percentages but like I said I never bet colours

I asked these questions before but I'll ask them again - since no one answered them last time:

You watch a Roulette wheel all day long and in the last 50 spins Red has come up only 10 times, 40 Blacks showed up.  You sit down and are ready to bet Red (or Black):

The pit boss replaces the wheel with another wheel and balances it - does this change anything?

The fire alarm goes off and everyone runs outside and 1 hour later everyone comes back - does this change anything?

The white ball is replaced with another one - does this change anything?

Now if you believe in past history favoring one color over the other you can't bet - and why???

[col1879]

*******************I will do it right here on this forum.*********************

I think I know what your strategy is but we will wait and see 

[darrynf]

Can some math whiz please explain to me how it's gambler's fallacy to expect red after 20 blacks when red and black are always moving toward an even distribution?

im not a math whiz but i think gamblers fallacy is about something changing, the higher something occures the sonner its bound to change, this way it dosent effect even distrubution.

[col1879]

*******************im not a math whiz but I think gamblers fallacy is about something changing, the higher something occures the sonner its bound to change, this way it dosent effect even distrubution*******************

Yes! Not over infinity, over infinity everything equals out, but depending on the size of sample then yes (percentage ratio wise, NOT GUARANTEED)

******************Now if you believe in past history favoring one color over the other you can't bet - and why???**************

Depends on the size of the history and the size of the future

[darrynf]

You watch a Roulette wheel all day long and in the last 50 spins Red has come up only 10 times, 40 Blacks showed up.  You sit down and are ready to bet Red (or Black):

The pit boss replaces the wheel with another wheel and balances it - does this change anything? MAYBE (IF IT WAS BIAS)

The fire alarm goes off and everyone runs outside and 1 hour later everyone comes back - does this change anything?NO

The white ball is replaced with another one - does this change anything?NO

Now if you believe in past history favoring one color over the other you can't bet - and why???

it also depends how it came up (the colours, how they appeared, if you got 10 black then it changes to red) well it dose matter but when to bet is the challenge and thats why colours will never win

[darrynf]

@ cole,

Now i understand what you are saying cole, your percentages are based on short term, though i still dont think its true becuase it can be 75% singles or repeats and it can change up or down, maybe in most cases it will be one thing but in roulette its always one thing most of the time then it changes and then we lose.

[col1879]

A single is not just R or B, to make it a single it has to be BRB or RBR. Think about it. A two is BRRB or RBBR. A Three is BRRRB or RBBBR etc.

Now study a 100 spin sample and see how many are singles, twos, threes etc

[gizmotron]

lol yet its normal enough to post !

always something with him lol

It took 30 seconds for this answer to your post to load. There is no way that I can keep up with a live feed from an acceptable on-line live wheel and the chat window here on this forum. You must have missed my disclosure that my internet provider was purchased by a new company and they are installing four more T-1 lines to go with the 3 T-1 lines already being used in normal conditions. Right now I have intermittent access and slower than dial up speeds. I suppose you didn't actually read this far so I'll have to tell you again later when you are in your usual pissy state. You act just like a married battle axe of a mother.

[bombus]

It took 30 seconds for this answer to your post to load. There is no way that I can keep up with a live feed from an acceptable on-line live wheel and the chat window here on this forum. You must have missed my disclosure that my internet provider was purchased by a new company and they are installing four more T-1 lines to go with the 3 T-1 lines already being used in normal conditions. Right now I have intermittent access and slower than dial up speeds. I suppose you didn't actually read this far so I'll have to tell you again later when you are in your usual pissy state. You act just like a married battle axe of a mother.

Is it not possible to change you ISP?

Sounds like your current one is a pain in the arse anyway...

[darrynf]

why dont you stop posting excuses and give everyone something they can see.

I dont really care about your isp, all you ver do is talk and try to sell something and yet you brag about what you do and your students and yet not one has vowed to be under you.
out of all yous B.S you havent even given one thing that people can see it works, you smell like a scammer.

you treat everyone on here like they are ideots, the olny ideot i see here is you gizmo!

you are no smarter then anyone here and all you do is call people names and act like you are gods give to roulette.
YOU ARE JUST A WANNABE, PRETENDER, whatever you want to call yourself.

back your words up, as far as im concern you are full of shit!


Im out of this topic, i wont be replying as i have said what i think, its what i think whether im right or wrong! period.

you win some you lose some, i just had a guy try to sell me a system, i said no. i have my own.

[darrynf]

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