Gamblers Fallacy (not what you think)

[GogoCro]

Thanks N.D.
I did not want to insult anybody. I dont want to get involved in all these AP VS system play.
I personally like to play for fun, to test some systems and disscus them in some civil and polite way without name calling. And also main issue that is aceppted on all roulette wheels. If I win something followed rules I can be proud.
Players whom playes only to find some weak spot and exploit it for personal gain is like insults everybody else and is not in fair play mode!

[MauiSunset]

Thanks N.D.
I did not want to insult anybody. I dont want to get involved in all these AP VS system play.
I personally like to play for fun, to test some systems and disscus them in some civil and polite way without name calling. And also main issue that is aceppted on all roulette wheels. If I win something followed rules I can be proud.
Players whom playes only to find some weak spot and exploit it for personal gain is like insults everybody else and is not in fair play mode!

Whow - I'm a capitalist and I live to exploit weaknesses in systems.

It's what I do for a living, whether it's real estate, stocks, timeshares, cars, and gambling.

If I find a weakness, and I know there isn't one in Roulette I would exploit the hell out of it.  I would be on a flight to Vegas tonight and live in the casinos - I'd sleep every other day when I'd take a bath and I would play until the casinos threw me out the door.

I take no prisoners when it comes to business or gambling....

[GogoCro]

Thats true, but you like others must folow the rules. In every branc of industry (casino, share trade, cars) have strict rules what is allowed and what is not. If somebody have fear of being cought doing knowingly something aginst rules - its dishonest and nobody can be proud of that, speaking for myself ofcourse). Would you be happy if in some casino use device what can gain them advantage? No, it goes both ways, they have to folow rules too.

You do what you want, weakness might be if some casino stuff leave vault open and unsecured - would you take the money? If you went too shop and leave without paying just bc somebody did not stop you.Where is honesty in that.

[ll l ll l lll ll]

Whow - I'm a capitalist and I live to exploit weaknesses in systems.

It's what I do for a living, whether it's real estate, stocks, timeshares, cars, and gambling.

If I find a weakness, and I know there isn't one in Roulette I would exploit the hell out of it.   I would be on a flight to Vegas tonight and live in the casinos - I'd sleep every other day when I'd take a bath and I would play until the casinos threw me out the door.

I take no prisoners when it comes to business or gambling. . . .

If there isn't a weakness in roulette, how do you explain Rays ability to win every public challenge he's ever done, win +720 units in 300 spins flat betting, and play roulette for a living as his sole source of income?

[GogoCro]

If there isn't a weakness in roulette, how do you explain Rays ability to win every public challenge he's ever done, win +720 units in 300 spins flat betting, and play roulette for a living as his sole source of income?

Some people has born under lucky star - simple.

[MauiSunset]

If there isn't a weakness in roulette, how do you explain Rays ability to win every public challenge he's ever done, win +720 units in 300 spins flat betting, and play roulette for a living as his sole source of income?

I've only spent 12 hrs looking into Ray and so far it's the same old "Random numbers have patterns"' mumbo jumbo that others spout.

As for a test, I only have 2 cases and they were someone else calling out the numbers and it might have been Ray's brother-in-law for all I know.  I'm not saying Ray is unethical, it's that these 2 cases could be from a magic show for all I know - the magician always seems to bypass known science to make people float in air, etc.

You guys are way too eager to believe in junk that has no scientific backing.  You eagerly accept rumors and "tests" that have NO validity to them at all.

[ll l ll l lll ll]

I've only spent 12 hrs looking into Ray and so far it's the same old "Random numbers have patterns"' mumbo jumbo that others spout.

As for a test, I only have 2 cases and they were someone else calling out the numbers and it might have been Ray's brother-in-law for all I know.  I'm not saying Ray is unethical, it's that these 2 cases could be from a magic show for all I know - the magician always seems to bypass know science to make people float in air, etc.

You guys are way too eager to believe in junk that has no scientific backing.  You eagerly accept rumors and "tests" that have NO validity to them at all.

That's funny, do you really think Herb is his bro in law?  Let's be realistic.  Email Ray yourself and he will give you your own personal demo.  His email is under his member name.

[MauiSunset]

That's funny, do you really think Herb is his bro in law?  Let's be realistic.  Email Ray yourself and he will give you your own personal demo.  His email is under his member name.

I don't know but when I go to Vegas we love to go watch Lance or David or the other David and they do the impossible every night; that's what magicians do for a living - fool us.

A live demo in front of us with a live TV Roulette wheel is proof positive of a real system....

[ll l ll l lll ll]

I don't know but when I go to Vegas we love to go watch Lance or David or the other David and they do the impossible every night; that's what magicians do for a living - fool us.

A live demo in front of us with a live TV Roulette wheel is proof positive of a real system....

Email him for your live demo, I'm sure he would be happy to show u.

[Mr J]

How about Ken once and for all explained which part of advantage play is gamblers fallacy and WHY ? Be specific please, no ducking and diving. 

Busy Sunday here today Kelly, sorry. How do you NOT call AP (the broken dream) gamblers fallacy? Its STILL based on PAST results REGARDLESS of how or WHY you obtained those results. I think you would agree, you are ALSO using past results? Oops, let me guess........'THOSE' past results are something completely different. 

Ken

[pins]

its simple. nobody knows what the next spin is going to be.  anybody who thinks different is suffering from a delusion. sometimes you guess right and more times you guess wrong. but its easy to believe you have a power nobody else has. i can go to the casino0 and say the next number will be two.  i might be right but  how many times will youi guess right. but will i convince anybody i doubt it.

[Kelly]

The results advantage players track is not the numbers. If there is a dominant strike diamond, it will remain there for as long as the wheel is tilted or for as long as the track is dented in that area.  If there are 8 diaonds and 1  strike diamond, the math expectation is 1/8 but the hit rate will be maybe 6/8 and will pretty soon exceed 3 , 4,  5 SD.  The situation will remain for as long as the wheel is unfixed.  The rest of the diamonds are not suddenly gonna wake up and start hitting out of nowhere.  On a semi tilted wheel there are different conditions but lets keep it simple.

PS: Its pretty simple and i actually think you do understand the difference, but it has been your mantra for a long time and it wont look good on your CV if you suddenly changed your mind. Which would also be the first you changed your mind on anything.

[Mr J]

its simple. nobody knows what the next spin is going to be.  anybody who thinks different is suffering from a delusion. sometimes you guess right and more times you guess wrong. but its easy to believe you have a power nobody else has. I can go to the casino0 and say the next number will be two.  I might be right but  how many times will youi guess right. but will I convince anybody I doubt it.

This is never the issue. The *NEXT* spin? Nobody knows that nor have I EVER read one method claiming to know it.

The key is to know (hopefully know) a certain number will hit in the next 'X' number of spins. Regardless if its flat betting or a progression.

Ken

[MauiSunset]

This is never the issue. The *NEXT* spin? Nobody knows that nor have I EVER read one method claiming to know it.

The key is to know (hopefully know) a certain number will hit in the next 'X' number of spins. Regardless if its flat betting or a progression.

Ken

Which is it?

Statement #1 says that no human on this planet can tell what Roulette number will come out next.


Statement #2 seems to say that sure they can, maybe not the exact next number but given "x" spins they can.

Both statements can't be correct.

Which statement is true?

P.S.

I guess if "x" is 1,000,000 then statement #2 is correct but how do you make a bet on that?

[Mr J]

Who has ever said they 'know' what the next number will be? Not the next column/dozen BUT the exact number?

  "seems to say that sure they can, maybe not the exact next number but given "x" spins they can" >>> Careful with your wording, you remind me of someone else. 

I'm not saying 'THEY CAN' with a 100% certainty, I'm saying based on whatever method they are playing, that is their goal. Any method I have ever played, I have never RELIED on winning on that ONE NEXT spin (of course I'm not upset if it does hit), but rather my number(s) hitting within the next 'X' number of spins.

Ken

[Mr J]

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