If someone wanted to avoid a sequence or a certain pattern from happening what would you do, its probably a stupid question but what ever.
Hi Warrior.
I like your name!
I assume you mean a bad sequence?
It's a good question with no single answer I think.
Though the obvious one is, walk away.
I'm currently delving deeply into this aspect of the game, and feel that at tmes you will have no option but to dump the bet.
A bit like a poker player folds when he knows it will cost too much to continue in respect to his chances of winning.
The ability to change the direction of the bet mid stream might help avoid the bet dump.
If the sequence continues downward, then dump the game.
Start a fresh one, move tables or re-chart your required spins, whatever.
The game should also be dumped at a certain point after a good sequence, to avoid the almost inevitable bad one that follows.
If the sequence continues downward, then dump the session.
i agree with point leave table some bad sequences are killers and becouse it is random then can be repeat between next 20 spins but that dasnt mean it will be repeat. switch is danger move mean stay on that table switch with game ... well can be done just play it with minium bet but ....dont want elaborate on this im not to much experieced thats why i choose change table
Thats very intersesting thanks bombus,i was thinking along that line but was not sure .
Hi guys,
Interesting question. If you find an answer you found the way to beat roulette.
About leaving the table, leaving the casino or changing the game.
Mathematically, all these measures have no effect.
All too often I read about having a profit target, "don't be greedy", "leave the casino while in profit" etc.
Mathematically this is nonsense.
All these are psychological illusions.
Let's take a simplistic example. You bet on red. So far you have made a profit of let's say 15 units. Now 14 Blacks have come one after another and you are at +1. Now: Either you change table, or you go home, or you start playing a different betting scheme, does not change anything. Because in the next spin, Black has exactly the same chance of appearance as it has in the other table, as it has when you come back the next day, as it has after you switch again you betting scheme to betting Red.
(Going home would have any meaning mathematically, only if you NEVER went to a casino again. And changing bets would have any meaning only if you never bet Red again.)
There is a thing called personal permanence. Some may know what this refers to. I wonder how many (or how few) truly understand its implications.
Kav can you please specifi what is exactly personal permanence. there is time when game brutaly change if someone who do understant roulette can spot it clearly and i dont talk just about colors then permanence can be used ,there is times when indication show the game will be change but there is always but for me definitly. maybe becouse im not understand couple things clearly orr i have lees experience i dont know maan
The concept of personal permanence is a very important and extremely deep one. It has philosophical proportions.
I plan to do an article on it and post it but it has so many aspects it would take a lot of work to analyze it fully.
To understand the concept of personal permanence, first you have to understand and accept the following idea:
Any sets of random spins, taken randomly, from anywhere, from anytime, can form a series of spins, as random as valid as honest and as reliable, as the a series of spins taken from the same roulette wheel. To give an example, this means that if we take randomly spins from different dates, different tables and different casinos all over the world, we can form a series of spins equivalent to a series from the same roulette wheel. This may sound crazy but can be proved mathematically. The key words here are: taken randomly .
One of the implications of this concept is this: Let's say for example, you leave the casino today after playing 100 spins and come back after a month and play 100 spins more. The spins you bet in your previous visit and the spins you bet in your current visit added together (100+100=200) form a series that is equivalent to the series you would have bet if you stayed longer in the first visit and played 200 spins. There is absolutely no difference in expectations.
In very simple terms, Personal Permanence is the series of spins that is created if we add continuously all the spins we have bet in our life until today, no matter when or where.
Like I said, this issue needs more time and work to be fully analyzed, but I hope you got an idea.
(btw, whith this concept we can also show why roulette outcomes are not totally and absolutely independent, but this is a different story)
kav
I agree with you totally on the "personal permanence". This is why "hit and run" betting will not work.
I'd love for you to expand on this statement:
(btw, whith this concept we can also show why roulette outcomes are not totally and absolutely independent, but this is a different story) My red.
Sam
Very interesting veiw which i agree with hit and runs systems are a fallicy because if you hit and run one day for 50 spins then hit and run next day for 50 spins it then becomes a 100 spin session because the wheel or cards have no memory 20 little sessions of fifty spins for example equal one session of 1000 spins
If one has a method that works it has to work 24 hours a day at any casino on any wheel The only proviso i would have with a winning method is a stiop loss and stop loss is more for pyscological purposes
Regards Rodney
Warrior I like your common sense to this game but can we make use of it for a potential good method
THANKS NATURAL 9 IM TRYING HAVE A GOOD DAY.Tino
QuoteIf someone wanted to avoid a sequence or a certain pattern from happening what would you do, its probably a stupid question but what ever.
Yes and no.
As i see it you could try to play the last pattern of your clustering that has no show when all the other patterns come up.
But we know that nothing is due so you could end up with many attempts where the last pattern that is at sleep appears exactly after all the others have a show itch time.
I don't know how to measuring it.
Cheers LS
Considering the math, and the random nature of roulette, it would be very hard indeed to argue against the concept of personal permanence. In fact, advantage play aside, it's a given.
Even so, I still think it is prudent to make efforts to avoid difficult or unfavourable dispersions.
For instance, if you are betting 6 numbers, then you can bet 6 times to break even. If the first 6 bets lose, should you dump the game at -36 and move on to another bet, or should you press on throwing more money at a losing bet that could go on and on?
is equivalent to the series you would have bet if you stayed longer in the first visit and played 200 spins. There is absolutely no difference in expectations.>>
Its called 'random'. I don't mean to offend, but is this a revelation to you? How could there be a difference if you're dealing with true random. Giving it its own name is a little silly, sorry..
is equivalent to the series you would have bet if you stayed longer in the first visit and played 200 spins. There is absolutely no difference in expectations.>>
Its called 'random'. I don't mean to offend, but is this a revelation to you? How could there be a difference if you're dealing with true random. Giving it its own name is a little silly, sorry..
You didn't get it. Read again.
What is silly is your claim that you observe previous spins to decide your first bet.
What spins do you observe, the spins on the table or the spins from your previous visit?
Well it doesn't matter. And if it doesn't matter, this means that you canot make a decision observing previous spins, because different sets of previous spins are equaly relevant to the next outcome.
Please don't bother me again.
I have said it before that there has to be some kind of characteristics or else you can be an blind man who put the chips on the carpet with no thought.
Then the issue is if it exist or not.
Yes it does.
Cheers LS
...."that deaf, dumb and blind kid......sure plays a mean pin ball."
this means that you canot make a decision observing previous spins, because different sets of previous spins are equaly relevant to the next outcome.>>>>
HUH? Thats like saying you can get directions for Kansas by studying a map of Florida. One has nothing to do with the other. Previous outcomes are only relevent to the next outcome on the wheel they come from, not all wheels in the world.
"Previous outcomes are only relevent to the next outcome on the wheel they come from, not all wheels in the world." .........Spike.
I am going to write this under my laptop, misspelled word and all.
Yeah yeah, relevent, relevant, and I have a college degree. I always misspell certain words and thats one of them. Where do I send the $50 fine?
Quote from: Spike on September 14, 2009, 09:55:31 PM
this means that you canot make a decision observing previous spins, because different sets of previous spins are equaly relevant to the next outcome.>>>>
HUH? Thats like saying you can get directions for Kansas by studying a map of Florida. One has nothing to do with the other. Previous outcomes are only relevent to the next outcome on the wheel they come from, not all wheels in the world.
Now do you understand why what I wrote before is NOT obvious? It is a revelation indeed, so much so, that you cannot even gasp it.
If the locations of those cities were RANDOM, there would be no maps. Or Any random map would be equally helpful.
Look, this is obviously deep water or you. Stay out or try to understand before commending. Oneliners aren't gonna help you here.
Quote from: Spike on September 14, 2009, 09:55:31 PM
this means that you canot make a decision observing previous spins, because different sets of previous spins are equaly relevant to the next outcome.>>>>
HUH? Thats like saying you can get directions for Kansas by studying a map of Florida. One has nothing to do with the other. Previous outcomes are only relevent to the next outcome on the wheel they come from, not all wheels in the world.
You're always moving the goal posts, Spike. Makes it very hard to line up a good shot...
If the locations of those cities were RANDOM, there would be no maps.>>>
Ah, but the cities are NOT random, and reading random is an exacting affair and not random at all. You obviously cannot grasp this. Who's fault is that?
So what is the significance of personal permanence? Kav, are you saying that you're better off using your personal permanence (history) as a guide to betting rather than the decisions coming from the wheel you're currently playing?
Mathematically it should make no difference. :-\
>>To understand the concept of personal permanence, first you have to understand and accept the following idea:
Any sets of random spins, taken randomly, from anywhere, from anytime, can form a series of spins, as random as valid as honest and as reliable, as the a series of spins taken from the same roulette wheel. To give an example, this means that if we take randomly spins from different dates, different tables and different casinos all over the world, we can form a series of spins equivalent to a series from the same roulette wheel. This may sound crazy>>
Its not crazy, just wrong. Sorry.. Its what people who have no conception of what random is believe.
Quote from: Tangram on September 15, 2009, 05:00:59 AM
So what is the significance of personal permanence? Kav, are you saying that you're better off using your personal permanence (history) as a guide to betting rather than the decisions coming from the wheel you're currently playing?
Mathematically it should make no difference. :-\
Right. It makes no difference. The only difference is that if you record your past outcomes you'll have a much longer history to look at, than the history of the wheel you observe for a few hours or minutes.
Quote from: Spike on September 15, 2009, 05:11:22 AM
>>To understand the concept of personal permanence, first you have to understand and accept the following idea:
Any sets of random spins, taken randomly, from anywhere, from anytime, can form a series of spins, as random as valid as honest and as reliable, as the a series of spins taken from the same roulette wheel. To give an example, this means that if we take randomly spins from different dates, different tables and different casinos all over the world, we can form a series of spins equivalent to a series from the same roulette wheel. This may sound crazy>>
Its not crazy, just wrong. Sorry.. Its what people who have no conception of what random is believe.
First you comment that what I say it's obvious.
Then you say it's wrong.
That much for consistency.
Don't act like a smartass. When you do not know or understand something, try to learn, instead of attacking it with your arrogance and ignorance.
What I describe above is mathematically sound and this is basic stuff for knowledgable players. If you don't believe me ask a mathematics professor. Or just try this:
Take the first 10 spins for every Wisbaden table for 20 days. Add the numbers in a predefied order ( day1 table1, table2 table3 , day2 table1 table2 table3.. etc.)
This series of outcomes will form a series equivalent to a series of the same wheel. The law of the third, the law of large numbers, everything you'd observe in the spins of the same wheel are there in the series of spins one creates by adding randomly spins from different wheels from different days.
Try to LEARN something for once.
PS: Spike there is a big difference between being interesting and beeing a curiosity. Both attract attention, but for very different reasons. You are a curiosity, and you shouldn't be proud of it. I don't want any more useless discussion with you, get out of my way.
I was thinking about this in relation to online casinos and RNGs. I don't know the technical details but I assume an online casino works like this: There is a central server which spits out the random numbers at a rate of say, one per second.
1 - 14
2 - 23
3 - 10
4 - 0
5 - 35
6 - 9
.
.
.
So on the 3rd second the number 10 is generated, on the 5th second no. 35 is generated etc. Now, there is only one stream of numbers coming from the RNG, but my stream obviously depends on when I generate a number (from my pc) which going to be different from a guy on the other side of the world playing on his computer. So you could say that the only "true" data stream is that coming from the source (1 number per second) but no-one actually gets to play this "true" sequence, only intermittent samples of it. And yet each user, wherever they are, and no matter at what intervals of time they generate their spins, will get a stream which conforms to the expectations ie; all the "laws" of probability will be obeyed.
What I would say though, is that there does seem to be a difference feel to the sequences which come from a real wheel and those coming from an RNG. Whether this difference comes from the fact that an RNG isn't a real wheel (so would you perceive a difference if you were able to play the "true" sequence as above?) or because the "true" sequence is "interrupted" I've no idea.
Quote from: kav on September 15, 2009, 06:03:07 AM
This series of outcomes will form a series equivalent to a series of the same wheel. The law of the third, the law of large numbers, everything you'd observe in the spins of the same wheel are there in the series of spins one creates by adding randomly spins from different wheels from different days.
Yes, but these "laws" are not what he's looking at/basing his bets upon.
What you are saying is true, but what's being used here is not the global randomness, but the local one, I.e. the current stream of random data generated by the wheel, the aim being the exploitation of the current/
constantly-shifting characteristics of that flow.
In other words, by putting these series of outcomes (taken from different sources) together, you are not affecting the global randomness, but you are affecting the local one (which you obviously aren't even considering). In the eyes of an "educated guesser", the current/local data flow coming from one generator is all that really matters as far as reading/betting is concerned.
Tangram,
For many reasons, I'd say RNG spins are different than roulette wheel spins and not (only) because they are interupted like you say.
Marven,
I don't give a rat what he is doing. I just explained a concept and replied to his contraticting comments. I'm not into the "guess what's Spikes system" fixation.
I'm not talking only about global randomness. That was the first step in order to go further. The personal permanence is... very personal. Not global.
You seem a very reasonable person. Please read what I wrote independently from anything Spike does - my post has nothing to do with him anyway.
I already said, a full featured analysis of the things I talk about here, would need much more work. I hope I can do it sometime soon.
Quote from: kav on September 15, 2009, 07:33:37 AM
You seem a very reasonable person. Please read what I wrote independently from anything Spike does - my post has nothing to do with him anyway.
Done. Nothing new to me so far to be honest, but I do hope more people were aware of such basic facts.
Quote from: kav on September 15, 2009, 07:33:37 AM
I already said, a full featured analysis of the things I talk about here, would need much more work. I hope I can do it sometime soon.
Well in that case, I'm looking forward to it. :)
>>In other words, by putting these series of outcomes (taken from different sources) together, you are not affecting the global randomness, but you are affecting the local one (which you obviously aren't even considering). In the eyes of an "educated guesser", the current/local data flow coming from one generator is all that really matters as far as reading/betting is concerned.>>>
Forget it, Marven. People love this kind of mind game stuff, it does nothing but go around in circles, but it makes them feel good for awhile. Extreme local randomness is the only thing thats exploitable, its the only thing the casino will pay you for, and the only one I'm interested in.
Spike there is a big difference between being interesting and beeing a curiosity. Both attract attention, but for very different reasons. You are a curiosity>>
LOL!
How can you avoid a sequence? What is this sequence? At a table one will hear somebody complaining that the dealer is missing his numbers. Is this a sequence? The name for roulette needs to be called ONE OUT for these guys. Even if the last 10 numbers are black its not to say its a sequence because there is still a difference in the last numbers, high low odd even etc. Sequence need to be the same in all to be a sequence. That what will limit the movement or chance on the wheel. 5 and more repeats of a number might be called a sequence. 12 numbers in a dozen is only on the table in one area not on the wheel. Have you ever seen the next. The dolly is placed on winning number. No bets around the dolly while pay the winners. Then the next number comes up next to the prior number. Same street or split. I call this the dealer chase the dolly. Is this a sequence if they spin numbers next to where the dolly was?
IF the gaps between the last numbers are 5 and it repeat this gap you might say this is a sequence, what now are you going to stop playing or are you going to use this to play? The more you know the better you will play. Remember trend is your friend. I would like to see a dealers spinning the next sequence for me 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9. even this is not a sequence. Because its only on the table not in the wheel.
When a dealer spin 5 numbers in Neighbours to Zero one is quick to say the dealer is fixed in Neighbours. That will be the HG just play Neighbours because the dealer is not going anywhere else, if this where to be true.
The only sequence is chance, random numbers.
Hey Twocando,
Have a look at Gizmotron's posts. He is a bit of a dick but his post's are very interesting. He wrote at one stage that he tracks let's say 6 dozens on the layout and another selfmade 3 dozens on the wheel. I am pretty sure I know what those wheel layout dozens look like. Anyhow. So he combined the two. Now track and you will see patterns emrging.
Like you say trend is your friend. Not I'm no expert in this type of play (lol or most probably any type of play! ;D)
Cheers
Jakk
As you have seen so far, roulette players' views on the Personal Permanence are mixed -to say the least. Some say that it is true, others say is so obvious they knew it already, others find it crazy and wrong (albeit obvious!?$#) and the lazy ones do care to understand, just want to "get to the point" and "tell the system".
Now take a step back and think about it again. If you chose roulette outcomes randomly from many places and wheels you can form a "Personal Permanence" that conforms with all the laws of probability as they were continuous results from the same wheel.
First we need to clear up the "take random results" thing. Which results can be considered random enough to be included in our PP [Personal Permanence] ? Not every wheel result we observe is random.
What we will NOT include in our PP:
1) For simplicity's shake we will not include any RNG results, will will only consider real spins from a wheel. (theoretically it is possible to make a P out of RNG outcomes, but we will go into th debate if they are truly equal to real wheel outcomes which is another subject altogether
2) Since we want randomness, we can not choose the numbers we will include. Therefore it is better to decide what to include before we know the exact outcome (numbers). For example if you are wandering in a casino and you eyes saw many times the number "8" on the tables lightboards, or if every time you took a closer look at the wheel the outcome was "8", you can not add these "8" to your PP. Because you noticed them only after they have come.
The general rule is that you cannot chose spis to include after you know specifically their outcome.
What we can include in our PP
The rule of thumb for all PP players is this:
Your PP is the exact order of all the numbers produced only by (and by all) the spins you placed a bet.
This means if you want rock solid PP you must include only spins on which you had a bet on, you must include all the spins, and the outcomes should be added in the right order (older outcomes first newer last)
(In fact the PP is more flexible that that as long as you keep it totally random. For example if a day you go to the casino without carrying a pen you can decide beforehand that this session will be excluded from your PP. Bu this must be decided before you start betting.)
What are the effect of PP?
First of all the PP renders the concepts of "roulette session", "session bankroll", "win target" etc. useless. If they have any meaning it is purely a psychological one. We are playing one long roulette session all our life.It really stops only when we stop for good and never play roulette again.
Secondly, building PP let's you observe and analyze a much larger number of spins before betting; instead for example the 16 spins present on a roulette board. Furthermore, because the PP grows as yo play you are able to notice the swings and trends and sleeps and wake up as they happen.
So start writing down the outcomes of the spins you bet today and build your own Personal Permanence.
(to be continued)