Sad to say that I am begining to feel no systems or methods will beat roulette. . .
I had once believed that roulette can be beaten or predictable. . . but i think its jus empty hope or believes. . .
So what if u got a system that let u win in one session? maybe u will win in 1 session, 2 session even 3 session. . . but can u be sure that it will bring u profits in as many session as u play? when i say profits, i mean u r still in positive from e 1st day u seriously use a system or method to play roulette. . .
Even say u have a solid method or system. . . luck will still play a part. . . eg. if u r gg to a casino with a method or system in mind, if u are lucky, u start e game with a winning streak, but what if u are unlucky? u start with a losing streak.
Any living proof in this forum to show me that i am wrong? (hope there are. . . )
I still hope someone can prove me wrong. . .
Friend
The random game cannot be beaten, only the device can. As long as your methods don't attempt to beat the dealer/wheel device instead of the random game (e.g. outside bets) you will never succeed.
People like fender1000 will tell you otherwise. I can post empirical proof here that their methods fail in the long run (no matter what money management and discipline rules they implement). I can show you proof that (for instance) the "zone" he uses gives no advantage whatsoever over playing randomly/betting every spin. Whom would you believe, someone who knows the maths and the physics that run the game and can show you verifiable proof of what he's saying, or someone who claims to make a living out of a dozen/progression system, thinks one street is better than the others and that 25 reds in a row is impossible?
Then come the people who follow such persons. The problem with those is that they have no clue regarding the law of large numbers. They play for a few hundred spins and draw conclusions. They are inexperienced and don't know how randomness works in the long run and are in no position to give advices.
My advice is either study the physics of the game (if you're willing to go that way) or seek something else entirely. There are other things out there where you CAN get the edge. Get the edge first, and THEN worry about money management and discipline.
PS. If you can, try to grab a copy of Nassim Taleb's ingenious book "Fooled by Randomness".
Hi Stackbundles, i have read the fender's method. . .
But i do not quite understand it. . . care to explain?
Hi there Stackbundles
Actually I wasn't using any mathematical jargon (I wonder what you'd say if I do), but let's put this in terms you understand:
Ya system's like gettin' in a jet plane, ya will fly high until ya're outta fuel n' become at gravity's mercy, head to the ground n' crash n' burn.
In other words, the system you're playing uses a limited negative progression. If I generate a bankroll graph of an extensive test of it, you will see some rather long periods of winning more than losing (up trends).
Eventually the graph would head down until it reaches zero and below thus conforming to long term expectancy, something your system can't avoid just the same way number 0 (for example) can't avoid appearing in roulette. It's there so sooner or later it WILL appear. It's how things work in reality. "Math" doesn't "cause" this to happen, it only describes it.
You are on one of those "up trends", sorry. Like it, don't like it, that's your problem.
You can't make it in the gambling world until you can deal with your own fallacies and illusions.
Quote from: Stackbundles on April 12, 2010, 10:46:37 AM
fender has played this system for 10 years making profit
- Spike from GamblersGlen forum has a consistent 72% hit rate on even chances.
- Charles Hampshire makes millions playing roulette.
- James Wendal can predict lottery numbers, and beat every casino game using what he calls "invisible maths".
- I can fly to the moon using my "invisible wings".
You get the point.
None of these people is selling anything either. It just feels good to sound like a winner and have people praise you and ask you to teach them.
Anyhow, my advice to you is withdraw your money out (although it appears you have nothing to lose now, so no worries). Get some casino actuals from:
nolinks://spielbank-wiesbaden.de/DE/622/PermanenzenArchiv.php (nolinks://spielbank-wiesbaden.de/DE/622/PermanenzenArchiv.php)
or:
nolinks://nolinks.laroulette.it/Permanenzimetro/PZM_casino.asp (nolinks://nolinks.laroulette.it/Permanenzimetro/PZM_casino.asp)
Spend some time playing the system (just like you would play it with real money) over large spin samples -be careful not to cheat though. Using ready spins is quicker than playing live, so you can play many sessions each day, advance quickly to see what sort of bad runs randomness would have thrown at you over a few years of slow live play.
If you can prove to yourself that it will work in the long run, then ignore me and play with your real money. Until you do so don't jump to any final conclusions regarding the system or its maker. :)
Fender1000's system works by betting on an average. While the average itself is not an issue and may be a fact, due to its natural fluctuation, it won't hold up as expected. Unless you can predict when it will fluctuate and bet accordingly, the best you can hope to do is lose 2.7p for every £1 you wager. The progression makes it worse. If it were a true winner you wouldn't need incremental staking. The progression in this system just papers over the cracks in the bet selection. You might THINK you're winning now but you aren't. You're just experiencing an upswing in deviation. People who explain facts aren't "jealous" or "hate winners", they are, in fact, trying to help you protect your winnings. Spitting your dummy in their faces is just immature.
1. Generally and simply speaking, MM can't make a losing system a winner; and a winner doesn't require thusly wasting a lot of time finessing those winnings. (Why, when you can just keep winning directly?)
2. Anyone who could, were that even possible in a casino-setting, "beat the device"... COULD MAKE FAR MORE MONEY AT MUCH-LESS RISK AND BOTHER ELSEWHERE, (verifiable) formal education or not.
3. The fact that no one (else?) with a formal education has finally decided to make a subject-of-interest purely out of thusly beating one of these casino-games doesn't imply anything (else).
Stack, i really dun understand. . . like u posted:
12th waited for loss
7th = 2
6th = 1
6th = 1
5th = 2
9th waited for loss
6th = 1
5th = 2
5th = 2
5th = 2
Can you explain the followings:
1) 12th waited for loss and 9th waited for loss
2) the 7th = 12, 6th = 1, 6th = 1 etc. . . . does the 7th, 6th means the bet in the 5th - 8th spins?
Quote from: Graywolf on April 12, 2010, 12:48:41 PM
Stack, I really dun understand. . . like u posted:
12th waited for loss
7th = 2
6th = 1
6th = 1
5th = 2
9th waited for loss
6th = 1
5th = 2
5th = 2
5th = 2
Can you explain the followings:
1) 12th waited for loss and 9th waited for loss
2) the 7th = 12, 6th = 1, 6th = 1 etc. . . . does the 7th, 6th means the bet in the 5th - 8th spins?
1) 12th waited for loss and 9th waited for loss
he waits for a virtual loss before start betting
2) the 7th = 12, 6th = 1, 6th = 1 etc. . . . does the 7th, 6th means the bet in the 5th - 8th spins?
7th=2 means that he won at 7th spins, so 2 units profit
... and so on
Regards,
Afonso
ok, means after we get a win in one of the 5th - 8th spins/ attempts, we wait for another virtual lose again before we start betting. . . . i think it is difficult to explain in words. . .
3
2
3
1
3
3
3
1
0
3
3
3
1
1
2
2
3
3
2
3
1
1
1
3
3
2
2
1
3
3
3
3
care to show me how to go about betting the above. . .
And what if we get a virtual WIN in THAT virtual LOST?
Quote from: Noble Savage on April 12, 2010, 09:09:21 AM
The random game cannot be beaten, only the device can.
Randomness has characteristics that are temporary. Even if many people can't read these characteristics that does not make these characteristics go away. In fact, there must be people that try and fail to figure it out. It is not unreasonable to expect people that have failed to become angry. They might even go as far as to write books about it. The random game can be beaten. Not only that but when opportunities seem to go vacant, limiting risk can mitigate the expected bad results. Consequently having a deliberate attack plan, like the card counters that raise their bets, you can take advantage of opportunities. You will never be without skeptics.
Quote from: Gizmotron on April 12, 2010, 02:18:18 PM
Randomness has characteristics that are temporary.
Sure it does. The problem is whether or not they are predictable.
Let's take the even chances for instance. You'll see Red "sleeping" and "waking up". In other words you'll see it hitting above the mean baseline at times (trending), e.g.
R B RRR B RR BB RRRRR B R B RRR BB RRRRRRHitting below the mean baseline at other times:
BBB R B R BB RR BBBBBB R B R BBB RR BBBBBBBAnd hitting at about the expected rate at other times:
B R BB R B RR B R B RR BB R B R(The
mean baseline, as I'm sure you know, represents the expected hit rate of one hit per 2 spins.)
These three "phases" are randomly distributed, their length is random and conforms to Gaussian distribution, the law of series, and the law of large numbers.
xx
xxx
xxxx
xxxxx
xxxxxx
xxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxetc.
This is a demonstrations of the possible lengths of these "phases" (i.e. trends and absence of trends).
Suppose you observe the beginning of a phase:
xxThere is a 50% chance that it will continue to
xxx, and 50% chance (minus the house edge of course) that it will end at
xx with a new phase beginning. i.e.
xx /
xThe same obviously applies to the raw Red outcomes (as opposed to trends/dominances):
If you have one Red outcome, it can go to another Red and form a series of
RR or go to black and from a single Red:
R BIf you have 2 Reds, there's a 50% chance it will continue and form a series of
RRR, and a 50% chance it will chop and go to Black:
RR B. And so on.
Red results will conform to normal distribution, and the odds don't change. Observing and/or measuring the previous clusters/phases of Red won't help either since no matter where you jump in, it's always a "50% this way, and 50% the other" (minus the house edge). It's the nature of random walks. There is no way on earth you can show or prove that the probabilities change (e.g. spins where Red has 60% probability and black has 40%, or 55% Vs. 45%, etc.) on a spin-to-spin basis (or any basis for that matter).
The same principle applies to dozens, double-streets, etc.
Now if the probabilities don't change on a spin-to-spin basis, and therefore your bets are not placed on high probability situations, then how the hell would you get a real edge? And if you don't have a real edge, then how on earth do you win long-term? Money management? Discipline? LOL, not on this planet.
PS. The Blackjack comparison was irrelevant. Blackjack outcomes are not independent trials, the probabilities change. Card counters find high probability situations and bet on them, that's how they get their edge.
Quote from: Gizmotron on April 12, 2010, 02:18:18 PMYou will never be without skeptics.
Giz,
Or w/o the "leapers"... which gets us nowhere.
Noble,
Excellent reply.
its all luck. todays winners are tomorrows losers. the only way to get rich is hard work. all system players some day will walk out of the casino and wonder what happened. the house edge caught up with you. my advice. play for fun.
Quote from: Noble Savage on April 12, 2010, 04:50:45 PM
Sure it does. The problem is whether or not they are predictable.
... There is no way on earth you can show or prove that the probabilities change (e.g. spins where Red has 60% probability and black has 40%, or 55% Vs. 45%, etc.) on a spin-to-spin basis (or any basis for that matter).
... then how the hell would you get a real edge? And if you don't have a real edge, then how on earth do you win long-term? Money management? Discipline? LOL, not on this planet.
Hey, it doesn't have to be predictable to be an advantage. It just has to continue doing what it's doing. Who gives a damn if "probabilities change"? BTW, you just identified an enormous new reason to read randomness in a new group type. The group type is the randomness of temporary, localized probabilities. So thank yourself. The edge is in identifying things that continue and in knowing how to deal with it. You, unfortunately, need it to be a mathematical explanation in order to relate to it. You have no clue whatsoever how to deal with it. So what gives you the right to explain it? Math has only served to blind your understanding of short termed probability. BTW, now short termed probability is now a characteristic of Randomness. Thanks, very very much.
Quote from: Gizmotron on April 12, 2010, 07:41:15 PM
Hey, it doesn't have to be predictable to be an advantage. It just has to continue doing what it's doing. Who gives a damn if "probabilities change"? BTW, you just identified an enormous new reason to read randomness in a new group type. The group type is the randomness of temporary, localized probabilities. So thank yourself. The edge is in identifying things that continue and in knowing how to deal with it. You, unfortunately, need it to be a mathematical explanation in order to relate to it. You have no clue whatsoever how to deal with it. So what gives you the right to explain it? Math has only served to blind your understanding of short termed probability. BTW, now short termed probability is now a characteristic of Randomness. Thanks, very very much.
Couldn't say better :thumbsup:
Noble Savage why do you waste your time
let them do what they do
there is no need to try to educate them or turn the world around for them
if they dont understand that there is no andvantage or edge with out any postive expectaion
there just no hope
Let them see what they see and let the call it what they want to call it
just let them be alone in the dark
Cheers
Quote from: I have cookies on April 12, 2010, 08:14:16 PM
Noble Savage why do you waste your time
let them do what they do
there is no need to try to educate them or turn the world around for them
if they dont understand that there is no andvantage or edge with out any postive expectaion
there just no hope
Let them see what they see and let the call it what they want to call it
just let them be alone in the dark
Cheers
I guess you're right. :)
Quote from: Noble Savage on April 12, 2010, 09:34:24 PM
I guess you're right. :)
Not so fast.
Randomness is just a fancy word for drunkenness... and causes the same disorders and symptoms in children of alcoholic parents (as it does in the casino-addicts who come to believe only that they are getting better and better the worse things get.)
On the other hand, what if the same sorts of clinical recourses for that problem can be used on some higher level against the casino-sort?
One must study also the sick to find the cures, to look at this sort of thing... to not waste time over it.
Quote from: GARNabby on April 12, 2010, 10:04:46 PM
Randomness is just a fancy word for drunkenness...
Being a loser is just another fancy word for drunkenness. If you can't see past the arithmetic or the math then please don't go to a casino with your hard earned money. Don't purchase any computers, don't pay for advice regarding anything to do with the physical properties of the Roulette wheel. You can learn anything at home. You can teach yourself to recognize trends. Nobody can stop you. There will be very angry people that resent you because they can't learn how to win. That's their own fault. Most of them do not have personal drive. It takes hard work to learn to read randomness and to apply it to your benefit. Good Luck. Don't listen to the skeptics.
@Jordon27,
Trends/Patterns run throughout the game almost constantly.
The advantage lies in your ability to be able to read what is going on and decide how you are going to approach it from a betting perspective.
First of all you need to be able to define which trends are likely to have a positive outcome more often than not to make it worth your time. (not all trends are equal)
Secondly you need to be aware when the opportunity is gone.
It is my opinion that you do not learn any of this in a day or a week. It can take years to hone your skills and instincts so that you stand a better than average chance of winning consistently.
QuoteThe advantage lies in your ability to be able to read what is going on and decide how you are going to approach it from a betting perspective.
1) Words like
andvantage or
edge have no value if there is no positive expectation.
2) There is no positive expectaion using trends or patterns.
3) If there is no bias -
not due to random fluctation - there is nothing to explore.
Just have nothing to do for the moment and spend my time writing here - thats all ...
/.\
Quote from: sherminator on April 13, 2010, 06:41:30 AM
@Jordon27,
Trends/Patterns run throughout the game almost constantly.
The advantage lies in your ability to be able to read what is going on and decide how you are going to approach it from a betting perspective.
First of all you need to be able to define which trends are likely to have a positive outcome more often than not to make it worth your time. (not all trends are equal)
Secondly you need to be aware when the opportunity is gone.
It is my opinion that you do not learn any of this in a day or a week. It can take years to hone your skills and instincts so that you stand a better than average chance of winning consistently.
totally agree
I love it when I deposit £5 on betfred and play with my instics and just go for it.
colums sleeping betting with them, streets going threw a hot stage (knowing when to jump on and jump off)...... red not going past R,R for over 40 spins
.....17,2....single bet on number 25...
.........24,8....bet single numbers 10,26
I'm 21 but I know experience can be the answer to not losing alot on roulette and as time goes on and insticts get better then well you could have yourself a holy grail within yourself that cannot be explained or shown to anyone its only down to you to make a profit.
regards,
MATTJONO
p.s the problem is getting carried away and losing your hard earned profit bankroll with a thew silly bets :diablo:
QuoteFirst of all you need to be able to define which trends are likely to have a positive outcome more often than not to make it worth your time. (not all trends are equal)
Simple! :lol:
Pity there's no way of doing that. There is no REASON why any trend (once begun) is likely to last longer (or not) than any other perceived trend - unless of course, you have a biased wheel.
Where is the cause and effect in random outcomes? there is none.
"1) Words like advantage or edge have no value if there is no positive expectation. " AGREED!
"There is no REASON why any trend (once begun) is likely to last longer (or not) than any other perceived trend"
CAN'T ARGUE WITH THAT EITHER!
Not that some of you guys need to worry about it but the repetitive nature of what most of us learned a long time ago gets a bit stale after a while.
Quotethe repetitive nature of what most of us learned a long time ago gets a bit stale after a while.
Seems you haven't learned it though, or perhaps just haven't understood?
No, I understand perfectly well. I was lucky to have the ability to move on. It's a shame that you couldn't.
QuoteNot that some of you guys need to worry about it but the repetitive nature of what most of us learned a long time ago gets a bit stale after a while.
I have no comment other then i notice your reply ...
/.\
Quote from: sherminatorI was lucky to have the ability to move on.
Spoken like a true gambler - good luck! (you're gonna need it).
QuoteNo, I understand perfectly well. I was lucky to have the ability to move on. It's a shame that you couldn't.
I am sorry to say it takes years - money - education - skills and build the right relations ...
Argue against it is no good idea - ask the right questions and move forward is an good start ...
/.\
Quote from: Jordan27 on April 13, 2010, 05:57:12 AM
@Gizmotron can u explain WHY the trends are giving an advantage?? what is the reason behind it?
Trends always give an advantage when they last a long time in your favor. It's always a risk to start betting on a trend. It's also a risk to make any bet based on any premise. In any case you establish a trend line for past bets placed. You can see when the effectiveness is in a state of dominance of wins or dominance of losses. You can see when your session is just chaotic and that you are not getting anywhere.
Skeptics believe that the probability for how many trends that must end, as you begin to bet them, will equalize any previous advantage that you may have had. One problem with that theory. Probability odds are not consistent. In fact, those odds go through the exact same characteristics as effectiveness. It's possible to create a time line graph that shows probability changing from spin to spin. Math oriented players are too lazy to create graphs that would help them to understand randomness as when it is related directly to current states.
It's not important to attempt to bring along those that are stuck on fixed probability odds. They don't get it and they have stopped themselves from proving it to themselves. It's kind of like Global Warming scientists. They believe what they want to and damn those that don't.
Beware of the next big thing, Wobble Globing.
Quote from: Gizmotron on April 13, 2010, 01:13:40 PM
It's possible to create a time line graph that shows probability changing from spin to spin.
LOL. Sorry but I couldn't help but laugh at that comment.
You conclude that just because the random outcomes fluctuate, then the probabilities of events fluctuate too.
You are way, way off base about this Mark.
C'mon Noble, get with the program!
Don't you know Spike & Gizmo make up their own probabilities as they go along? Fixed odds are only for math nazis. :lol:
;D
Quote"It's possible to create a time line graph that shows probability changing from spin to spin."
Quote from: Noble Savage on May 17, 2010, 01:07:21 PM
LOL. Sorry but I couldn't help but laugh at that comment.
You conclude that just because the random outcomes fluctuate, then the probabilities of events fluctuate too.
You are way, way off base about this Mark.
Please excuse the use of wikipedia, but in this regards any apology is not necessary. It's just that a few of you snobs need to discredit the messenger when you are clearly blown off the stage, as they say.
Markov chain, "A Markov chain is a discrete random process with the property that the next state depends only on the current state. It is named for Andrey Markov, and is a mathematical tool for statistical modeling in modern applied mathematics, particularly information sciences..."
"Formally, a Markov chain is a discrete random process with the Markov property. A discrete random process means a system which is in a certain state at each "step", with the state changing randomly between steps..."
"The Markov property states that the conditional probability distribution for the system at the next step (and in fact at all future steps) given its current state depends only on the current state of the system, and not additionally on the state of the system at previous steps..."
This notion is not an invented notion. Conditional probability, now theres another example of current state logic.
Laugh all you want. I have imagined what mathematicians have already postulated. Why did I imagine it? "Necessity is the mother of invention." Now laugh that one off.
Quote from: Bayes on May 17, 2010, 01:21:00 PM
C'mon Noble, get with the program!
Don't you know Spike & Gizmo make up their own probabilities as they go along? Fixed odds are only for math nazis. :lol:
Hey Spike, don't you know that Bayes and Noble Savage can't read randomness and have an oblivious perspective on situational awareness. Yet they consider themselves as qualified critics of what we can or can't do. That makes them Feckless & Factless, the schmuck brothers.
make up their own probabilities as they go along?>>>
Let me ask you a question. If you're trying to guess how many marbles are in a jar and the guy who filled the jar tells you how many bags he put in, does that change the math and probability of you winning? Reading random also chnges the probability of you winning, it changes it from the casinos favor to your favor. So we don;t make up the probabilities, but we do change them.
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 17, 2010, 01:33:29 PM
"The Markov property states that the conditional probability distribution...
The problem is that you really seem to have no clue how irrelevant these things (that you keep purposefully injecting this "reading random" fantasy with as an attempt to dress it in scientific credibility) to what we're dealing with here, i.e. random outcomes with fixed odds. Hence the laughing; we see beyond the bells and whistles.
to what we're dealing with here, I.e. random outcomes with fixed odds. >>>
If readng random works and gives you a better idea as to whats coming next, does that change the 'fixed' odds?
Quote from: Noble Savage on May 17, 2010, 02:32:19 PM
The problem is that you really seem to have no clue how irrelevant these things (that you keep purposefully injecting this "reading random" fantasy with as an attempt to dress it in scientific credibility) to what we're dealing with here, I.e. random outcomes with fixed odds. Hence the laughing; we see beyond the bells and whistles.
Read the quotation that you laughed at.
Quote"It's possible to create a time line graph that shows probability changing from spin to spin."
It doesn't say that I read the probability as it changes. It clearly states that its possible to create a graph of a constantly changing current state. The odds are not fixed. That's your laughable fantasy. In fact it's your lost world. I guess nobody can tell you anything. You are too set in your ways, with your "full cup." When I clearly demonstrate to you a bigger world that acknowledges changing states in randomness you dismiss it as irrelevant. It's a very big fantasy that you pretend to hold court in. And, you are oblivious to evidence to the contrary. What's it going to take? You jokers have no clue whatsoever. Just keep laughing, that's what you need the most.
Quote from: Spike! on May 17, 2010, 02:39:39 PM
If readng random works and gives you a better idea as to whats coming next, does that change the 'fixed' odds?
Isn't it easy to say "If".
Unfortunately it doesn't work, and here are the big news: You can't prove it does.
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 17, 2010, 02:46:22 PM
The odds are not fixed.
Of course, and I can travel to the future.
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fnolinks.manandhisbaby.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2008%2F06%2Fback-to-the-future.jpeg&hash=b22847a5f77a22d1a5393fd432625739ef02e553)
Spike and Gizmo use their mind power to block certain pockets in the wheel, changing the odds of the next spin.
(https://www.vlsroulette.com/proxy.php?request=nolinks%3A%2F%2Fi189.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fz8%2FMentalPerception%2Fl_power-of-mind.jpg&hash=19f436ddb1a79e95f59324185082f2dd8674c443)
QuoteProbability odds are not consistent. In fact, those odds go through the exact same characteristics as effectiveness. It's possible to create a time line graph that shows probability changing from spin to spin.
Prove it. Show us. Explain how they change at each spin.
Quote from: Noble Savage on May 17, 2010, 02:59:18 PM
You can't prove it does.
Deal with this statistical expression.
"The globalizing effect for my currently occurring specific trend has performed at 90% since it was recognized 20 spins ago." Now that's an example of a statistic that is useful to me. It's a constantly changing statistic that changes after each spin. I could dig up a specific set of spins to show that it really happens but that would be digressing into the minuteness of the bigger point being made. Nobody needs to see how the sausage is being made in order to discuss the principals of current state statistics. Try to deal with the idea of statistics like that. They are never fixed. They keep on being perfectly accurate while long term statistics remain to be assumed constant.
Quote from: SpikeLet me ask you a question. If you're trying to guess how many marbles are in a jar and the guy who filled the jar tells you how many bags he put in, does that change the math and probability of you winning?
There are always a fixed number of marbles in the jar, and you know how many there are.
Quote from: GizmotronAnd, you are oblivious to evidence to the contrary.
Where is the evidence? please! show me some evidence! :yahoo:
Quote from: Bayes on May 17, 2010, 03:13:34 PM
Where is the evidence? please! show me some evidence! :yahoo:
Markov chain. You just chose to ignore it.
haha aren't they cute. :)
What`s the last number before INFINITY ? :ok:
Very pertinent question since many posts deal here with infinite progressions. :diablo:
N.D.
QuoteMarkov chain. You just chose to ignore it.
Absurd. That's like tracking French fries from Mr. Potato Head. :)
Give us an example using your new version of math and how it applies to roulette if you can.
Gizmo,
Markov chains are useless for roulette, because the next state doesn't depend on the current state. The wheel has no memory. :no:
Quote from: Herb6 on May 17, 2010, 03:22:25 PM
Absurd. That's like tracking French fries from Mr. Potato Head. :)
Give us an example using your new version of math and how it applies to roulette if you can.
No, you need to remain the honorable skeptic from the septic. Please stay stupid.
1. The number of pockets on the wheel remains the same at each spin.
2. The ball has no memory
3. The pockets don't know when they are "due" to hit.
Therefore on a random wheel, the chance of hitting is the same at each spin.
Quote from: Bayes on May 17, 2010, 03:24:32 PM
Gizmo,
Markov chains are useless for roulette, because the next state doesn't depend on the current state. The wheel has no memory. :no:
Bayes is gayes, "because the next state doesn't depend on the current state. " But it can effectively and statistically. Minor problem for your fantasy.
Quote from: Jordan27 on May 17, 2010, 03:24:37 PM
Yes Gizmo :)
tell us now that u are in the living fantasy sleep phase!
tell us quick! we don t want you to wake up!!! ;D
Ps.Byes u are wrong! :nono:
In Gizmo s fantasy world the roulette has memory!!! :yes:
And he knows exact what Roulete can remember and what not!!!! :yahoo: :clapping: :clapping: :clapping:
Jordan27, you are just a suck up boy. Go play with yourself somewhere else.
Quote from: Herb6 on May 17, 2010, 03:28:26 PM
1. The number of pockets on the wheel remains the same at each spin.
2. The ball has no memory
3. The pockets don't know when they are "due" to hit.
Therefore on a random wheel, the chance of hitting is the same at each spin.
And each spin has the capability of belonging to short term and long term statistics. Herb has one spin disease.
QuoteA Markov process is useful for analyzing dependent random events - that is, events whose likelihood depends on what happened last. It would NOT be a good way to model a coin flip, for example, since every time you toss the coin, it has no memory of what happened before. The sequence of heads and tails are not inter-related. They are independent events.
nolinks://nolinks.doctornerve.org/nerve/pages/interact/markhelp.htm (nolinks://nolinks.doctornerve.org/nerve/pages/interact/markhelp.htm)
But of course this doesn't apply to you, because you're on the cutting edge! Stone-age math is for math nazis! :lol: :haha:
Quote from: Jordan27 on May 17, 2010, 03:35:54 PM
Shame on U Herb6 :angry2:
How do u treat our roulette GOD like this!!!!! :rtfm:
please forgive him GIZ! :give_rose:
He is just jelous of your magic Roulette powers! :haha:
Ban Jordan27, he's been begging for it since last night.
There are always a fixed number of marbles in the jar>>
Suppose they have the contest every day and change the amount and the guy who does it tells you how many there are. Does having that knowledge change the probability of you winning?
Its easy to change the probability of winning a game of chance to your favor. Use marked cards, count cards, practice dice setting, use a roulette computer, learn to read random. All these things change the probability in your favor. The regular math goes out the window when you skew the odds.
Quote from: Bayes on May 17, 2010, 03:37:59 PM
QuoteA Markov process is useful for analyzing dependent random events - that is, events whose likelihood depends on what happened last. It would NOT be a good way to model a coin flip, for example, since every time you toss the coin, it has no memory of what happened before. The sequence of heads and tails are not inter-related. They are independent events.
nolinks://nolinks.doctornerve.org/nerve/pages/interact/markhelp.htm (nolinks://nolinks.doctornerve.org/nerve/pages/interact/markhelp.htm)
But of course this doesn't apply to you, because you're on the cutting edge! Stone-age math is for math nazis!
Yet those same independent events can belong to sequences of global effect statistics and produce exact calculations for each independent spin. Just because you have a fellow in the mathematics field that thinks like you do it does not mean his or your conclusions are valid. You are using the opinion of a "Subjective" thinker. You might like to acknowledge the existence of "Objective" thought. Go fish.
Quote from: Jordan27 on May 17, 2010, 03:40:19 PM
Why our GOD Giz? :(
You are My Roulette GOD!
How will I live without you!!! :'(
You need to look to your future, where your head will soon be. You are on a journey, You are looking up the south end of a north bound dog. Proceed.
QuoteA Markov process is useful for analyzing dependent random events - that is, events whose likelihood depends on what happened last. It would NOT be a good way to model a coin flip, for example, since every time you toss the coin, it has no memory of what happened before. The sequence of heads and tails are not inter-related. They are independent events.
-Thanks Bayes :)
@Gizmotron, above, This is why it doesn't work for roulette. It's because each spin of the roulette wheel is an independent trial. There's not a chance in the world of you proving otherwise.
@Spike, the number of pockets on the roulette wheel doesn't change.
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 17, 2010, 03:44:45 PM
You are using the opinion of a "Subjective" thinker. You might like to acknowledge the existence of "Objective" thought.
LOL!
I don't think the game is unbeatable. You will never play all spins of a table. You will always play a timeline, and you need to catch more winners than losers, or exit when in plus. I still haven't found a methot that fits a certain timeline. I probably will never too, because I don't have the patience and time.
It's interesting to note that our two national bozos still debate whether or not Roulette is beatable. They have been doing it on all boards since Roulette exists. Don't know why these bozos are on a quest to argue about the fact that Roulette is a random device you can't beat by using subjective skill. Sometime, someone should tell them: snap out of it, get a life or give a reason why you can beat Roulette consistently with a sound proof you can repeat it at will.
RBBBBBBR what's next ?
the number of pockets on the roulette wheel doesn't change.>>>
So what. Correct info on the next spin still skews the odds in your favor.
get a life or give a reason why you can beat Roulette consistently >>>
The reason is, the more you practice understanding how random works, the better you get.
Nice going guys, you get to dominate the fantasy world of fixed odds. You need me, I don't need you. You need to post here and I don't. I'm going to let you think you have one. It's the very worst thing I can do to you. You will think you have served a greater purpose. Now gloat over your minuscule achievement. I'm flushing you t**ds down the toilette.
you get to dominate the fantasy world of fixed odds.>>>
The fixed odds only remain fixed if nothing in the game changes. If you gather info on the next spin that wasn't included when they figured the fixed odds, the new info changes the odds. Whats so hard for them to understand about this?
QuoteYou will think you have served a greater purpose. Now gloat over your minuscule achievement. I'm flushing you t**ds down the toilette.
Gizmo I dont care why you posted this, but I've banned you for another 3 days. The next time I'll remove you. I dont care if you contribute once in a while, if this is the kind of trash you say at all.
The poll is closed? I was just going to change my vote to Herb, to keep things balanced. Dang..
Quote from: Gizmotron on May 17, 2010, 09:47:14 PM
Nice going guys, you get to dominate the fantasy world of fixed odds. You need me, I don't need you. You need to post here and I don't. I'm going to let you think you have one. It's the very worst thing I can do to you. You will think you have served a greater purpose. Now gloat over your minuscule achievement. I'm flushing you t**ds down the toilette.
Who need you???
Man you are really delusionist.
Now that you on probation for 3 days,will you stay there for ever pl.
Don't come back an d prove to us that you don't need us.
G'day,
With my mechanical, progression based system, each spin,
(Baccarat hand), changes the odds, either towards or away from
a 'particular run' and therefore this changes my betting amount.
It's funny how each spin is independant, yet has such an
effect on the previous as well as the subsequent decisions!
Glenn.
Quote from: potatochips on May 17, 2010, 05:46:09 PM
It's interesting to note that our two national bozos still debate whether or not Roulette is beatable. They have been doing it on all boards since Roulette exists. Don't know why these bozos are on a quest to argue about the fact that Roulette is a random device you can't beat by using subjective skill. Sometime, someone should tell them: snap out of it, get a life or give a reason why you can beat Roulette consistently with a sound proof you can repeat it at will.
RBBBBBBR what's next ?
I would love to say a R will come for the series to continue. But I can't. The table can change any next spin into mixed results.
Quote from: MiniBaccarat on May 18, 2010, 05:29:55 AM
G'day,
With my mechanical, progression based system, each spin,
(Baccarat hand), changes the odds, either towards or away from
a 'particular run' and therefore this changes my betting amount.
It's funny how each spin is independant, yet has such an
effect on the previous as well as the subsequent decisions!
Glenn.
That's one way to talk about LUCK.
That'
Hello Jordan, Graywolf, all friends and Roulette Eminences,
This is my contribution... No blah bah, no hot air, no alpha wolf discussions etc. ...
HERE WE GO:
In a very special way we can* use Roulette for making money,
according to our personal situation, personal needs and possibilities !!
HERE is the way, the essential advice:
The only REAL and really helpful list to succeed with Roulette:
1. There is no strategy to beat roulette in every session. . . We have to accept this fact !!!
2. ANYWAY: There are some (a few) strategies out there, which can help you to have
more winning sessions than losing sessions (session = Your daily betting visit in a b&m casino)
THIS can only be accomplished in the long run, when You:
3. Limit Your betting time in the casino. 30 minutes on one table should be enough !
otherwise random fluctuations can and will beat every strategy (on this day) . . .
4. Limit Your profit goal ( 10-20 % for each daily session would be VERY reasonable )
5. Limit Your losses. Have a Stop Loss Goal ( 20 % of Your betting wallet per day would be good )
6. Have a sufficient bankroll with You. Related to Your chosen strategies this should be 2 - 10k.
>>> If you do not have that, don`t go to a casino at all !!!
So the H O L Y G R A I L is:
a. Don`t be greedy !!!!!
b. Become really matured !!!!!
c. Control your character/personality, then you can control roulette !!!!!
IF YOU CAN lose IN CASINO WITHOUT BREAKING WITHIN, T H E N You can handle the
many short winning sessions and the few loosing streaks also...
If you can not loose with dignity, You will never be a real winner !!
IN THAT WAY and in only that way You can have more winning than looosing sessions
on a weekly/monthly average, for example on every 3-4 winning sessions 1 loosing session.
>> If you do NOT stick to these points above, you are doomed :skull: to fail.
>> If you really DO stick :rtfm: to these points above:
>> IN THAT WAY Roulette can be beaten ( not in every session ), but in the long run . . .
Sincerely Yours
ROLF :thumbsup:
_________________
* no Oblahma blah blah
Quote from: Jordan27 on May 19, 2010, 10:14:06 AM
As the wise and expirienced herb6 is telling: there would be times that u will not be able to come even +1 chip and u will lose lose lose...
> I understand, what you want to say, dear Jordan... But PLEASE read again slowly*, what I wrote above...
It is not my wisdom and experience alone, it is the essence of many very old and experienced players etc. ...
> YES, You can and will lose, lose lose. . . IF You cannot stop playing at that very day and IF you are a R-Junkie!!!
IF a R-Junkie stops playing, he will stop loosing... like a drug junkie...
AND It is always connected with psychic and bodily pains !!
these rules that u posted above is just for losing the BR more slowly*!
> Now You are sounding a bit destructive and depressed...
Please take your timeout and go with bud-sixpack down 2 the lake and relax... :give_rose:
Sincerely Yours,
ROLF :thumbsup:
WOW . . . now the " mathitical " ones are coming...
No need 2 answer 1 word on that . . . :dance1: :spiteful: :haha:
btw, I do not know win3million AND I do not need him in my life...
Have a good day All !!
Sincerely
ROLF :thumbsup:
Quote from: BlackPearl on May 19, 2010, 10:34:00 AM
> Now You are sounding a bit destructive and depressed...
Please take your timeout and go with bud-sixpack down 2 the lake and relax... :give_rose:
Sincerely Yours,
ROLF :thumbsup:
I recommend a scotch and some Zappa.
All of the time you spent in roulette is wasted if you think you can beat the game
... if someone can read (and think it over),
. . . THIS ONE is clear in advantage !!!
:sarcastic: :lol: :haha: :dance1: :rtfm: :aggressive:
:pleasantry: ROLF <-- :punish:
There is a current/ongoing daily result list from playing the
BlackPearl DOUBLE DZ/CL STRATEGY on DublinBets Live Casino
Table 1 + 2 in this thread (bottom of the FIRST posting) :
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/full-systems/the-andgt-blackpearl-double-dzcl-strategy-andlt-enjoy-!!!/
Check, test and ENJOY !!!
Sincerely,
ROLF :thumbsup: