I have an idea for a system where you would bet on a single number appearing in the next 100 spins.
i.e. a 100 step progression on a single number.
What I am struggling with is the bet selection.
If you were to back a number to appear in the next 100 spins what would it be and why?????
---A hot number
---A Sleeper
---A number that will complete a certain group?????????
---ZERO!!?
What do you reckon?
ginger
A number has no extra chance of hitting being either a hot, or a cold number.
Personally if I was going to play this way I would choose a number randomly. You have got about a 34/37 chance of picking a winner.
I agree with Shorty in the sense that the wheel has no memory. But if I were to choose, I would like pick a hot number over any others...
I just wouldn't play one number, but if you held a gun to my head GM then I would play a neighbor of a hot number. Davey Jones and a lot of people always state "the wheel has no memory" which is a true statement, but it isn't just the wheel that brings about where the ball will fall. The dealer has a memory and he is part of the process in creating where the ball lands. Even if it is only his subconscious mind that controls his interaction with the mechanical wheel. Am I in la la land or does that make any sense? :-\
That makes sense Ulysses, there is indeed "Muscle Memory" factor brough into the roulette table by the dealer.
nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muscle_memory (nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muscle_memory)
Regards,
Victor
It is true that the wheel has no memory, but not all wheels are created equal. Just as not all dealers will produce the same results. Each can play a significant role in accurate prediction. Some dealers are very good at throwing repeaters, and others just aren't. The dealer and wheel are both things that need to be considered when selcting just 1 number to play.
Yes Victor, Muscle memory must play a part in the game I'm sure after reading up on it. Hey GM what would the accumulative amount bet if you started betting a £1 increasing by £1 up to the 100 spins progression. And what kind of number would you bet yourself.
I would probably pick a number that had appeared in the last 10 spins and then stick to that 1.
100 spin (well! 99 spin) progression looks like this
spin bet
1 1
2 1
3 1
4 1
5 1
6 1
7 1
8 1
9 1
10 1
11 1
12 1
13 1
14 1
15 1
16 1
17 1
18 1
19 1
20 1
21 1
22 1
23 1
24 2
25 2
26 2
27 2
28 2
29 2
30 2
31 2
32 2
33 2
34 2
35 2
36 2
37 2
38 2
39 2
40 2
41 2
42 2
43 3
44 3
45 3
46 3
47 3
48 3
49 3
50 3
51 3
52 3
53 3
54 3
55 4
56 4
57 4
58 4
59 4
60 4
61 4
62 4
63 4
64 5
65 5
66 5
67 5
68 5
69 5
70 5
71 6
72 6
73 6
74 6
75 6
76 6
77 7
78 7
79 7
80 7
81 7
82 8
83 8
84 8
85 8
86 9
87 9
88 9
89 9
90 10
91 10
92 10
93 10
94 11
95 11
96 11
97 12
98 12
99 12
If your number of choice doesnt come in for 99 spins then you would be 416 units down.
The chances of losing are 93.4%
ginger
Amount won vs spin number plotted in a graph in the attachment
ginger
thanks for the progression GM. I think it's not a bad strategy at all, had nearly all my played numbers come up before half way, with most before 15 spins. It's looks to be fairly safe even nearing the 100 spins mark on your graph, maybe it will scupper my profits later on but It's got me fascinated for now...
hi ginger,
I would personal play this method for a 1 number bet, but you would need to track the numbers until they have all appared at least once. (THATS THE BAD PART ABOUT IT). when they have all appared thats our trigger we start betting after the next spin.
example
...
..
.
23,
14,
18,
6,
15,
1,
34,
30,
2,
9,
22,
17, TRIGGER (as all numbers have apeared).
14, so after the 14 has spun in we look back to when 14 span in last time. bet the number that span in after 14 last time round in this case looking back at the previous spins, number 18 is our betting number and thats the number we bet next.
28, (LOSS -1) now we look back again to the last time 28 was spun and bet on the number after 28 the last time it appeared. lets say it was 26 so we bet number 26
15,(LOSS -1) same again looking back at the spins the number we are betting on this time is number 1
1, WIN
hope you understand thats the way I would play anyway as I beleive in some numbers seem to trigger other numbers and in 99 spins we should shurly see a winner. probably the same odds as usual ;D
mattjono
Cheers Matt,
Good approach
I never thought there could be so many different possible bet selection techniques for playing 1 number.
What does the Law of the Third say on this one????
How many numbers out of the 37 would appear in 99 spins on average?
Its got to be a lot of them!!
Three times I started threads regarding this exact subject. Ken
QuoteHow many numbers out of the 37 would appear in 99 spins on average?
In 100 spins 35 numbers will have appeared (on average) . More info here:
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/reference-area/some-math-and-the-'law-of-the-third'/ (nolinks://vlsroulette.com/reference-area/some-math-and-the-'law-of-the-third'/)
If math sends you to sleep just scroll down to the "meat". ;)
I would ask my teacup for a good number. [smiley=vrolijk_1.gif]
Just some silly thoughts passing my mind when reading this thread.
I have played with the idea of flatbetting 1 number and possibly using progression when you pass the odds ratio with the flatbet.
These idea's however have passed my mind.
**Point 1 - Occurances
In the though of the wheel having no memory.
In how far can we determine or say if a sequence of numbers, resulting from wheel spins can have occurances separate from the fact that the wheel can't have a memory.
Let's say, even though the next outcome can't be influenced by previous spun numbers.
We can say that in time it will definitely happen, that repeating numbers will occur in the spun results.
It'll be like a acknowledge trend that will reoccur in the statistics.
Even though I try to explain this event of a repeating number from the perspective of a statistical occurance.
One can of course also say from another perspective that a number repeats because it was 'Hot'.
**Point 2 - Bad Luck
Completely separate from my first point.
Things like murphy's law amuse me a lot.
Let's say you base a betting system on cold numbers.
Just to find out that it keeps sleeping longer than you expected or had the bankrol to cover.
If this should happen to you, you can either reason it's was an abnormal statistic occurance.
Or a even simpler reasoning,. . Bad Luck.
This betting example can be referred to as betting on a 'Cold' number.
**Point 3 - Balancing the average.
Should you choose a cold number to flatbet on, the thing you'd most like to avoid is probably a numer that keeps sleeping longer than intended. But you won't know till it actually happens. Therefor you could use two strategies or theories on which you select a number, to balance out the chance of betting on a single sleeping number that won't wake up. So you pick your first number, and second number. And start flatbetting both with one units till you've gone through 35 units of your bankroll. From here you have the choice to keep flatbetting, progress your bet on one number only, or progress your bet on both numbers.
**So putting it all together:
Respecting the fact that a wheel can not have a memory I'm not gonna chose my single number based on 'Hot' or 'Cold'. Rather, I will choose to bet on the last spun number, simply because I believe a repeating number is a statistical occurance that will happen. Also respecting the Wheel has no memory, I can also reason that I can actually pick any number on the wheel and start flatbetting that one until I win. Because that single number will have just as good a chance to be spun as any next number.
So I keep flatbetting one number that a randomly picked, and stick to that number till I win. And also each time flatbet on the last number that appeared, to up the average of getting a hit out of one of both numbers played. I would have to flatbet both numbers till the amount off units lost is the same as the odds for the win (35) and will then have to double the bet for both numbers played.
What would you guys think is the chance in this working?
I know some of you might think why such a long story is needed to explain the betting on two numbers.
But sometimes I just like to approach roulette in a philosophical way instead of only mathematical.
I hope it at least entertained some of you, in that respect.
Hello headsethero, welcome to the forum.
Which approach to take is the neverending debate! Math gurus will tell it is the same whichever way you choose as it has no memory, but players will always sustain there is a rithm to the numbers :)
I suggest you visit Homeito's website nolinks://homeito.comlu.com/ (nolinks://homeito.comlu.com/) to get his views (Backed by statistics).
Regards and enjoy your stay at our place.
Victor
The thing about Homeito I dont understand (maybe someone can help me with this), what is his method of choice, if anything? Not making waves, just curious. Ken
Quote from: Mr J on January 28, 2010, 03:14:45 PM
what is his method of choice, if anything?
He sure doesn't use the criteria debunked at his website! (He said those lost him money).
Only him knows for sure.
I got it you cant bet a certain # you have to bet a certain occurance TWO NUMBERS IN A ROW check it out it happens
very offen ..... I came up with a 75 step progression that 1 win you win $100.00 or more.... so all I need is 1 win and I go
home .... I also wait till 30 spins with no TWO IN A ROW , when you wail up you already have 20 spin history so I
wait for another 10 or 15 spins and then I start... if 3 comes out I bet 3 if 00 comes out last I bet 00 and so on.....