Observe, explore and study even money bets.

[lucky_strike]

I read about an basic question at GG about how to use singles alternating.
If I remember it correct he post 11 singles alternating that end with an serie.

T = Tails
H = Heads

T H T H T H T H T H T HHH

Then I ask my self why I have not wrote about this before because I have great knowledge regarding this topic because I have study Marigny.
He is still one of the greatest roulette researcher comparing with all the roulette books that exist with poor information.

Here I will twist it a little and don't argue against the gamblers fallacy I will simple skip it.
I will show you how to apply the law of series, probability and math when you studying even money bets.

There is important that you change your mindset because we will not talk about or use regular patterns that are so common.
We will apply the law of series, math and probability.

Some would compare this with analyzing the stock market for trends based upon negative and positive tram, but it depends from what you try to capture that will tell you wish is which.
Add that will define the fluctuation you have to deal with.

We will go deep into the topics about what you can expect to happen and how to find indications - tendency's - that an event is going in one or the other direction, getting stronger or weaker and don't let us forget it can stay and hovering.

First we could define odd or rare events and in the same time mention that nothing is due.


SD = Standard division

When I say nothing is due then I accept the fact that anything can happen.
Then probability dictates we will not experience an SD of 6.0.

Rare or odd events is when we see how a certain event grow and hit an SD of 3.0 / 3.5.
Then they have an tendency to stop and hovering or start to drop and get weaker and hit an lower SD.

Now some one could start from analyzing when the distributions time-line hovering and go for the direction that start to get an tendency to grow and get stronger.

Or some one could wait for an strong SD to kick in and play where there is an tendency for an draw-down.
There is more option then above but we have to start some where.

This brings us to define different methods to apply an distribution time-line with an certain event that relay on the foundation of the law of series.

Now there is more then one dimension to this where some would use the word hidden distribution and regular.
You may name it what you like.

[lucky_strike]

Regarding an time-line and distribution we could ask the questions if there is one to explore.
To do so we need two sides of the coin where the opposite sides dictates different opinions on the subject.

Let me quote Spike that grasp the common view very well.

"What I see when I play roulette is no timeline, no distribution that can be exploited. What I see is random unfolding, random that's readable if you know how to do it. But not because there's a timeline or some kind of equal distribution."

Now lets take a look at what Marigny de Grilleau grasp the concept about the independence of the spins.

[lucky_strike]

Now I have the books with original work but it would be so time consuming to translate so I ask the owner at win-maxx.com if I could post there page about the subject.
This save me a lot of work not to write it up my self.

"IS EVERY ROULETTE SPIN NEW?"
Marigny de Grilleau
translated from "The gain of one unit on the even money chances at Roulette and Trente et Quarante"


One can hear that question in every casino everyday.
The word "new" means according to the definition "which one yet did not see".
In this sense each day is a new day.
It is quite obvious that people asking this question do not realy mean "new" to express this natural truth.
Their questions is badly formulated and surely they mean "new" in the sense of independent.
Thus they wanted to ask whether each spin is independent of the others, the previous or following spins.
The above question should be asked as follows: " Are all appearances and are all spins independent?" In this formulation no wordplay and no wrong interpretations are possible.

Grilleau does not hesitate with a clear answer: "No, neither the appearances nor the spins can be independent, because everyone of them is a part of the whole. This whole is arranged and limited in all its movements and is subject to precise laws."

Each spin, while the ball turns in the wheel, carries in itself a certain quantity of independence and a certain quantity of dependence.

The independence results from the following:
every time the dealer rolls the ball, it is faced with 18 red and 18 black, 18 even and 18 odd as well as 18 high and 18 low pockets. Therefore the ball has the same chance to fall in one of the 36 pockets (we do not consider zero or doublezero this time) since each pocket indicates Red or Black, Even or Odd, High or Low at the same time.

The dependence results from
1. the Law of Deviation (Ecart),
2. the Law of Balance (Equilibrium)and
3. the law of the distribution of appearances into different accumulations or clusters and isolated units

Thus the mathematical truth of the independence of the spins is constantly in conflict with the statistic truth of the dependence of the spins.

If between two equivalent appearances none, or only a very small deviation exists, the independence of the two appearances remains retained in their fight against each other.
But if the statistic deviation reaches a certain size, the size of this deviation more or less limits the independece of these appearances and spins.
In this instant the dependence of the appearances on the laws of nature demands again its right, by limiting its freedom for deviation within the statistic average values, of which these never can free itself.

In our opinion neither a single spin nor an appearance can be independ in a roulette permanence of a certain length, for example within 1024 spins.
The dependence of the spins which are affected by chance due to exactly defined laws, is a fact, which the usual gambler does not understand without difficulty. And because of this difficulty the gamblers and also the mathematicians believe in the independence of roulette spins.
In reality each spin and each appearance has its necessary and mandatory function in the whole of a roulette permanence.
Chance does not exist there, because all effects have their visible or hidden causes.


The dependence of the spins on the laws of nature becomes obvious, if we analyze a roulette permanence and classify the developed appearances.
However we do not succeed in each case in determining this dependence, which must be present for all spins, if only small deviations occur, which do not exceed the average statistical Ecart of 1.
We only succeed then, if we determine the partial return to equilibrium after very strong deviations greater than a statistical Ecart of 3.
The roulette ball cannot extract itself from the laws of nature.
These laws force it into the pocket, into which it must fall, so that it can perform the necessary function, which it has to, in the statistic harmony of the whole permanence - like a note in a score.
Chance can let many obvious, strange features develop before our eyes. But nevertheless, statistically seen, chance can not repeat these individual strange things too frequently, like for example a series of 25, which needs approximately 34 million spins to develop once.

[lucky_strike]

There is new people around and less experiences players so I will give some raw explanations about some basic concept.
I will keep it simple at this level and illustrate an easy way how the random flow can grow and get stronger and weaker or hovering.

I will show you the values depending one method among others and how you calculate.
We will stay with the concept when singles or series alternating where one of the two gets underrepresented.
Strong imbalance.

There will be no system here.
I will just show you how there is an difference when you get an indication that some things grow and get and strong SD and the other way around, getting weaker.

Then I will show when an tendency appears from being an indication from where some one can start to make there attacks to capture certain event using an predefined march.

[lucky_strike]

Here is an simple chart that i did a long time ago with some values that you can use as reference.



The french word for Standard Deviation is Ecart and will be the name i use from now on.

First you have to get the Absolute Ecart when you calculate.
So lets assume you have an sequence with 14 series alternating with two singles present.

Then you take 14 - 2 = 12

Now we want to get the statistical ecart so we continue with...

14 + 2 = 16

Now we take the sqr of 16 = 4

And finally we divide the absolute ecart whit the sqr

12 sqr 4 = 3,00

The Statistical Ecart 3,00

The values is 1 for singles and 1 for series.

[lucky_strike]

This above is only one dimension among others as I mention before.
This you can also apply to singles contra series of singles and series of singles contra singles.

Now we will take some samples from real life and to speed up things I will hit random.org and use sound as the foundation to distribute and apply the law of series as it would been Banker and Player or Red and Black.

When we analyze the random flow for an strong Ecart we will also note with in how many trails it occurs in.
Like an time-line "frame or window".
It has to appear with at least 16 and not above 50 and her less is better and will ramble about that later.

[lucky_strike]

Well there is two kinds of predefined marches Marigny use.
The first one would be to make your first attack after an tendency an
d if i lose he would wait for an indication and make a new attack.
If it lose he would attack an indication again.
That is the end of the first attack.
Then there is an march where he would go for using three indication.

There is an loop hole here and could say that the future dictates wha
t it brings to the table so then two alternating could become the indi
cations you need not three.

There is slow draw-downs and quick ones to capitalize on.

Statistical Ecart 3,00


R
R
R

B
B

R

B
B
B
B

R
R

B
B
B

R
R

B
B

R
R

B
B

R

B
B

R
R
R
R

B
B

R
R

B
B..3,00

R..R
B..B Indication
R..R
R.
R
B
B
R..R
B..B Indication
R..R
R
B..B
R..R Indication
R
B..B
R..R Indication
B..B
B -
R..R
B..B
R..R Tendency
B..B
R..R
B..B
B
R
R
B..B
R..R Indication
B..B
B
B

[lucky_strike]

Here is an demonstration how the random flow behave where i show how the statistical ecart grow and get all the elements we have talk about above.
Pick an random file from today at random.org.

This is how the law of series will unfold it self.

2 x
1 x
2 x
1
1
1
1
2 x
1 x
2 x
1 x
2 x
1 x
2 x
1
1
2 x
1 x Statistical Ecart around 2.5
2
2
2 End
1
2
2
2
2
2 Hovering
1
2
1 Get stronger Ecart
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2 Hovering
2
2
2
2
2
1
2 Hovering
2
1
2
2
2
2 Hovering
1
1 Indication
2
2
2 Tendency
1
1
2
1
1
1 Hovering
2
1
1
1 Hovering
2
1
1
1 Hovering
2
1
2
1
2 Ecart get sronger and so on...
1
1

[lucky_strike]

Correctoin.

It exist three marches and they have to happen with-in an frame that follow certan rules.
A window "frame" that I spook about above apply to when you get an very strong statistical ecart and with less.

Any one could use an statistical ecart of 2.5 or less but higher is better and will talk about that an probability later.
The indications and tendency's are still the same and show us what direction the random flow takes, unfold.
Stronger or weaker ecart or it stay for an while and hovering.

I will make the distinction between indication and tendency more clear.

[lucky_strike]

Exampel with slight correction and low ecart.

Here is an demonstration how the random flow behave where i show how the statistical ecart grow and get all the elements we have talk about above.
Pick an random file from today at random.org.

This is how the law of series will unfold it self.

2 x
1 x
2 x
1
1
1
1
2 x
1 x
2 x
1 x
2 x
1 x
2 x
1
1
2 x
1 x Statistical Ecart around 2.5
2
2
2 End
1
2
2
2
2
2 Hovering
1
2
1 Get stronger Ecart
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2 Hovering
2
2
2
2
2
1
2 Hovering
2
1
2
2
2
2 Hovering
1
1 Indication
2
2
2 Tendency
1
1
2
1
1
1 Hovering
2
1
1
1 Hovering
2
1
1
1 Hovering
2
1
2
1
2 Ecart get sronger and so on...
1
1

[lucky_strike]

Regarding if some-thing is due or not is useless and just show who have read this topic the wrong way.

This topic is about tendency not to hunt for a serie or singles to end.
It does not matter if you get 100 reds in a row it still has an value of 1 and are one serie.

We could even talk about 100 alternating series and it still does not matter.
Because the only thing that happens with the last one is that the statistical ecart grow.

Well now regarding how to grasp this I will make it clear and it is easy.
Lets assume we have 1000 alternating series and they end with two singles outcomes.
Then it would look like this.

998 series and BBBPPPPP B P

Now here we actually only know that this sequence end with one singles outcome because we don't know what the last one will become.
There is only an end for the statistical ecart to grow at this momentum.

Now lets assume we get one more singles and then we know we have two because the last one we don't know what it will become.

998 series and BBBPPPPP B P B

Now there is an indication that it has not only stop it continues to drop.
Then now we could argue that it can go back to back and grow any more and hit an higher statistical ecart.

Well lets keep on track here and assume we get one singles event again.
Now there is an tendency for an draw-down.

998 series and BBBPPPPP B P B P

This is end, indication and tendency.

With this you will see how the random flow hovering around an low statistical ecart that grow slowly or jump quick in one direction or go back and fourth between two directions or hovering at zero point.

Then there is time when the statistical ecart grow and get very strong in one direction.

Now you know how to measure the random flow with this simple concept.

Next I would will show you some samples with an predefined march that capture an draw-down.

Keep in mind that many can say many things with little to show or illustrate it with.

[lucky_strike]

1) Series contra singles.
2) Singles contra series.
3) Singles contra series of singles.
4) Series of singles contra singles.
5) Series contra larger series.

This is just some dimension how you can apply math, probability.

Here is the values for small series contra larger series.

Singles has the value of 0
Series of two has the value of 1
Series of three has the value of 0
Series of four has the value of 1
Series of five has the value of 2
Series of six has the value of 3
And so on

Here is an exampel of an statistical ecart of 3.0

........ LOW
........ LOW
HIGH
........ LOW
........ LOW
HIGH
HIGH
........ LOW
........ LOW
........ LOW
........ LOW
........ LOW
........ LOW
HIGH
........ LOW
HIGH
........ LOW
........ LOW
HIGH
........ LOW
HIGH
........ LOW
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
........ LOW
........ LOW
HIGH
......... LOW
........ LOW
HIGH
HIGH
......... LOW
......... LOW
HIGH
.......... LOW
HIGH
HIGH
......... LOW
HIGH
HIGH
......... LOW
HIGH
HIGH
......... LOW
HIGH
......... LOW
......... LOW
HIGH
HIGH
......... LOW
..........LOW..............14 series of two and two series above
HIGH
......... LOW
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
HIGH
........ LOW
HIGH
HIGH
........ LOW
........ LOW
........ LOW
........ LOW

[lucky_strike]

Here is an simpel way that will show you the truth.
Do your own experiment and aim for +1 only.
Here is some sampels with higher ecart.

Spielbank Hamburg

2000 01 01 Tabel 1

1 QS Serier contra singel + 1 UNIT WAGERING 1



---

2000 01 02 Tabel 1

1 QS Series contra singel + 1 UNIT WAGERING 1



---

2000 01 03 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 01 04 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 01 05 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 01 06 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singels

---

2000 01 07 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singels

---

2000 01 08 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singels

---

2000 01 09 Tabel 1

1 QS Series contra singels + 1 UNIT WAGERIN 1



---

2000 01 10 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 01 11 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 01 12 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 01 13 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 01 14 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 01 15 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 01 16 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 01 17 Tabel 1

1 QS Series contra singel + 1 UNIT WAGERING 2



---

2000 01 18 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 01 19 Tabel 1

1 QS Series contra singel + 1 UNIT WAGERING 1



---

2000 01 20 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 01 21 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 01 22 Tabel 1

1 QS Series contra singel + 1 UNIT WAGERING 1



---

2000 01 23 Tabel 1

1 QS Series contra singel + 1 UNIT WAGERING 1



---

2000 01 24 Tabel 1

1 QS Series contra singel + 1 UNIT WAGERING 1



---

2000 01 25 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 01 26 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 01 27 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 01 28 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 01 29 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 01 30 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 01 31

1 QS .Series contra singel

--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

2000 02 01 Tabel 1

1 QS .Series contra singel

---

2000 02 02 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 02 03 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 02 04 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 02 05 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 02 06 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 02 07 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 02 08 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 02 09 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 02 10 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 02 11 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 02 12 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 02 13 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 02 14 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 02 15 Tabel 1

1 QS Series contra singel + 1 UNIT WAGERING 1



---

2000 02 16 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 02 17 Tabel 1

0 QS Series contra singel

---

2000 02

[lucky_strike]

Start to post with an easy level and will advance with more specifics later.
Specifics for how many attempts you aim to attack.
There is 3 5 7 and 9 wish effects the results.

Results - Statisiks - 39/30

Note:
The aim is to get +1 with an higher base bet then lower the bets and continue the play to gain +13 flat betting.
Staking plan can be 931 wish the positive gain comes from.

Singles contra series.
The Perfect March.

Attempts -attacks - 5.
X = End of day.

Travemunde Table 1

921101 Ecart 3.13 +1
921111 Ecart 3.00 +1
921112 Ecart 3.15 +1
921112 Ecart 3.64 +1
921114 Ecart 3.15 +1
921117 Ecart 3.00 +1
921120 Ecart 3.15 -5
921212 Ecart 3.00 +1
921215 Ecart 3.65 +1
921219 Ecart 3.29 +1
921221 Ecart 3.88 +1
921222 Ecart 3.00 +1
930113 Ecart 3.00 +1
930114 Ecart 3.15 +1
930117 Ecart 3.00 -5
930117 Ecart 3.90 +1
930204 Ecart 3.80 +1
930204 Ecart 3.00 +1
930221 Ecart 3.29 +1
930223 Ecart 3.29 +1
930301 Ecart 3.15 +1
930302 Ecart 3.05 +1
930304 Ecart 3.57 +1
930305 Ecart 3.00 -5
930307 Ecart 3.50 -5
930324 Ecart 3.00 +1
930326 Ecart 3.88 +1
930330 Ecart 4.01 +1
930331 Ecart 3.00 +1
930406 Ecart 3.54 -5
930406 Ecart 3.15 +1
930407 Ecart 3.27 +1
930425 Ecart 3.00 +1
930428 Ecart 3.15 +1
930507 Ecart 3.00 +1
930507 Ecart 3.00 +1
930510 Ecart 3.13 -5
930516 Ecart 3.65 +1
930517 Ecart 3.29 +1
930520 Ecart 3.27 +1
930529 Ecart 3.27 +1
930601 Ecart 3.00 +1
930622 Ecart 3.12 +1
930626 Ecart 3.00 +1
930628 Ecart 3.41 +1

[lucky_strike]

Now i will start the work and post the statistics.
Enjoy.

Statement: I will not take any responsibility what any one might us this information for.
I will not take any responsibility for any attempts to any one if they apply this for real.

How to read and understand the results and the statistics.

If +1 overcome -? "how many attempts" then there will be an positive gain.
So there is no need to post every tram that follows by +1.

You can see the capitalization below.

Here i will mention that we only use +1 and -? depending on how many attempt itch attack is.

The tram where you ride out with 931 goes as follows.
You aim to get +9 then you lower your bets and play for two more attempts with 33.
If there is an win you lower your bets again with 11 and it ends the attack.

In any given situation you are +9 and lose you will gain +3.
If there is a total loss there will be an draw-down upon how many attempts your attack is based upon.
3 5 7 9.

This is how you read the statistics.

1th) There will be the date.
2th) There will be the Ecart.
3th) There will be the result from the "Measuring march".
4th) There will be the result from "The perfect march.
6th) There will be the results from "Grillaeau march".

Now i do this first with an small sample just so you get an hint how to read it all.
That is that.

When i post an larger sample i will only post date and results.

[lucky_strike]

-