Homeito's view on some issues

[Homeito]

Hello all.


Coming home from my vacation I had two reports from "the care-taker":

#1) For a few days, ending yesterday, the temperature has been down to 28 degrees Celsius below zero...
Those very same days I was experiencing the same temperature but ABOVE zero...

Now it's only 5 below here. But still 28 plus there...
WIWT


#2) There has been a discussion "4 year math degree person vs. 15 year roulette player" that was over-heated and is now deleted.
Reading other posts I can imagine what was going on...
It seems that this thread is a result of that over-heating. That's why I post here but if moderators don't think it's the proper thread please move it.


My opinion - FWIW - is coming from MY OWN EXPERIENCE as a NON-math person but a casino-visitor for seven/eight straight years. (There were no casinos in Sweden before 2001 and the one I visit was the very first one that opened.)

What I have found from my at-least-twice-a-week casino-visits are documented at my site. And although I am NOT a math-man (I want to check things by tests) it's exactly what the math-people say: Number-based methods don't work in the long run.
Unfortunately.

But FORTUNATELY I found this place and I learned a LOT.
And I have to say that people like Herb and Kelly and some others really opened my eyes! How? By saying "BEAT THE GAMING DEVICE - the game itself is impossible to beat".
(The second part being exactly my experience too)


--- So if I find that one or more numbers hit LESS than "they should" or "sleeps" or are "cold" while I record numbers, I ask WHY?
In my opinion there can be three reasons:
A) The random flow of numbers doesn't include those numbers right now - but that's only right now.
B) The dealer can in some way influence the ball to avoid selected numbers - making the random flow not random.
C) The wheel is defect in some way making it physically harder for the ball to stop there - making the random flow not random.

* If it in reality is A) a series of bets may start winning but I don't know when, and then it will hit in average as random/probability dictates which is a loss money-wise.
* If it in reality is B) a series of bets would be a really stupid idea as the numbers are avoided now, they may be avoided for the rest of the shift.
* If it in reality is C) a series of bets is a clear loss and really not very clever.


--- So if I find that one or more numbers hit MORE than "they should" or are "hot" while I record numbers, I ask WHY?
In my opinion there can be three reasons:
A) The random flow of numbers does include those numbers right now - but that's only right now.
B) The dealer can in some way influence the ball to stop around a selected number - making the random flow not random.
C) The wheel is defect in some way making it physically harder for the ball to stop at some place(s) and BECAUSE OF THAT it's easier for the ball to stop at the "hot spots"  - making the random flow not random.

* If it in reality is A) a series of bets may stop winning and I don't know when but I know that it will only hit in 1/37 in average which is a loss money-wise.
* If it in reality is B) a series of bets would not be a good idea because if the dealer can hit some areas on will, maybe those areas can also be avoided on will.
* If it in reality is C) a series of bets is a clear win


My very own, very basic, very simple and VERY SIMPLISTIC conclusion - thanks to HERB & C:o - is:

I have to establish if it's the dealer who ON WILL influences the results or not.
When I record spins I make sure to note the dealer-changes.

If I see no sign of "dealer-influence" then...
* If the only thing that gives me results is a random flow of numbers my bankroll will be influenced by the 2.7% vig. I bet 37 chips and get 36 back. There is nothing I can do about that.
IF the results are random.

* If the results are NOT random but the results of a flaw in the wheel I sure would start betting ON that flaw and not against it.

So... Betting hot numbers, that's what I would do... (simplistic, I told you so) ... for a START. Or at least AVOID "cold" numbers.
Because in my opinion that's the only thing that's THIS SIMPLE that MAY be working FOR me in the long run.


And regarding "long run / short run" I also have an opinion

I think that when I visit the casino, what I experience at that moment is a VERY short run.
I think that adding all my casino-visits, I am in the short run.
I think that adding all spun numbers at my casino, I see a medium run.
I think that adding all spun numbers in all casinos, I see the long run.
I think that adding all future spun numbers in all casinos to the above, I see the VERY (VERY) long run.

And that is why in my opinion, anything that CAN happen WILL happen. Also in the very short run.
But maybe just not exactly when I notice it because it depends on WHERE in the VERY long run I and that bad/good sequence of numbers are located.
If we are synchronized I will experience the event, if not synchronized I will not. But then maybe someone else will.

I think that's why some experience something (system or whatever) to be successful while others experience the opposite from the same.

In my opinion it's all about where my very short run is located within the very long run.
IF the results are RANDOM.

If the results come from a flaw or something else NOT RANDOM, it's another thing.


Just my 2öring...


I want to wish everyone here the best of Holidays!
Homeito Bemek

[Homeito]

Ooooh, my post is back!

It has been taken out of the original context and it seems like I've got my own thread where I can give my opinions...


So here is one more view/opinion:

* How long is a long run and why test (for it?)


Say that I go to the casino twice a week = 100 times a year.
Say that I stay for three-four hours each time = 100 spins.

That's 10,000 spins. Collected in only one year.
Is this "the long run"? Only one year?

I did just that for SEVEN years and a coarse estimation of my note-books shows that I've got not quite 100,000 spins, but rather close to...
Am I "in the long run" now? If I am: When did I enter that phase?


In my view a system can't be regarded as a winner just because it wins over a few sessions or even my own <100,000 spins.
Say that all the members of this forum tries a certain system FOR ONLY ONE HUNDRED SPINS EACH.
That's 351,500 spins... The long run? 100 spins each?


Don't you want to make a system that will show profit for the majority of the members here and the losers don't lose more than the winners won?

If that's your goal you have to, in my opinion, test it for at least 3515 (members today) sessions.
* How many members profited and how much?
* How many members lost and how much?
In the member's download I posted 707,492 spins from Wiesbaden Table #3 that (I think) can be used in RX for your tests:
nolinks://vlsroulette.com/downloads/?sa=view;id=379

Remember: That sample is ONLY 200 SPINS PER MEMBER!
What members here would regard 200 spins as the long run?

So in my opinion your test should answer this question:
Will your system give a higher total profit to the members that win (preferably the majority) than the total lost sum for the members that lose?

If it doesn't... Why do you post it? Do you want the majority of the members to lose money?
Really?


* NAH! Don't bother with tests! Tests are worthless!

So just bet on Red and double-up for each loss.
When Red eventually comes you WIN!


What? Is that system no good?
HOW do we know?
Will the result be the same if I use it? How do we know?
Is it the same result on RNG as for a live game? How do we know?
What about air-ball? How do we know?
If no one tests, can such questions be answered?

(To tell you the truth: I have NEVER test it!
I know that much math at least that I wouldn't bother.
But I've tested an eternitillion other progressions and variations. Both simulations AND live. Doing me no good...)


For the good of all VLS members: Please test your systems throughly and post the results along with the system.
I can't think of any rational reason why you shouldn't.

Ooh... You can't program RX or Excel or whatever?
You know what: If your system is interesting enough (for example is just not another variation of something well-known) there WILL be members that will help you.

One thing that will help you getting help is if you explain your theory behind your system:
Why would this system make a higher profit than loss for the members that want to use it?
Because you HAVE a well thought-out theory you base the system on - right?
And if you can describe it good enough, people WILL help you test your system.

I bet.


Best regards and again Happy Holidays All!
Homeito Bemek

[lucky_strike]

This post reminds me about the time before 2001 when I play restaurant-roulette.

I use one simple way with 0.5 chips and place them on column first then I have to start to use the layout with corner bets, splits and straight up as that was the only option to increase you bets using the layout and variations with sourding bets - lol -

One fun moment was when the dealer could not hand over me my winnings as he was short on chips, they where in my end, all of them - lol -

He bend over and took and look below the table where they had an kind of box, I assume, and he find some more chips.

That was an fun memory even if the ending was that they won back all of them.
If I remember it correct column three hit 6 or 7 times in a row and was the limit for my progression.

Det var 2.50 och max var 5 kronors men vet inte hur man skriver det på engelska.

Regarding meauring I would use the Estat for even money bets.
The first rule or hint if you are on to some-thing is if you gain 100 with 1024 placed bets - Masse Égale.
Estat of 2.5 or above.

My 2 cents is that 10.000 spins or more means nothing.
You should deal with how many bets you place.

Cheers LS

[Mr J]

(And we're off to the races again)..... "Number-based methods don't work in the long run" >>> I respect your opinion sir. I see no grey, only black or white. The issue, the past few days is..... EITHER have roulette forums SOLELY for AP (like RF) types of discussions and any other topics NOT related should NOT be allowed, I guess? If the OVERALL consensus is that no method will hold up for 800K spins.....then the point of talking/sharing methods is what??  I dont mind BIAS points of view but to be FAIR, if I state the opposite, there should not be any problem. Simply saying "prove it" or "my calculator says you can't win" won't cut it for me, sorry.

It takes a TON more to shut me up and change "MY GAMBLING EXPERIENCES" as well as any other poster here. What ever happened to? >>> If you are not a method player, thats fine but leave alone the guys that are!! I'll say it again, one of the reasons people CLAIM to be followers of AP (cough) is that they cant cut it in the REAL WORLD of methods. Thats my opinion and I'm stickin to it. Its kind of like, there's nothing else left, so you might as well jump on the band wagon and say you're into AP (cough) and everything is peachy in the world.  Keep something in mind if/when I get a response to this.

I won't change my view so whats the point? My wallet is plenty thick and I'm not about to throw in the towel and say F**K methods, not by a long shot. Not every method is the same, you can claim they are cause your calculator says so all you want, Merry Christmas.  Ken

[Marven]

Excellent posts Homeito.

Do you have msn?

[Homeito]

Hi Ken,

(Excuse me for a second while I reply to Marven - I saw it now when I post: Thanks. No )


Thanks Ken.

You have your opinion and that's fine with me. I respect that.


I have my opinion and it's based on more than 50,000 bets during more than 90,000 spins - everything neatly recorded.
(Those figures are estimations as exact figures will take days to get but rest assured that I don't exaggerate)

I'm glad you say you respect that.

If I had lived closer to the casino (I had to move when I retired a year ago) I am sure I would look into ways of beating the dealer/device instead of the lottery-game.
But that's only my personal conclusion based (too late IMO) on my personal experiences.
And I post about it.

You obviously have other experiences and thus draw other conclusions.
And you post about it.

And that's fine and one of the good things with message-boards: Any one reading this can make up his/her own mind based on what we post and discuss - coupled with their own, personal, experiences.


I will probably leave everyone - including you - alone for quite a while now.

Happy Holidays, Ken!

Homeito Bemek


BTW Ken - you really should see a doctor for that bad cough... It seems persistent...

[Marven]

BTW Ken - you really should see a doctor for that bad cough... It seems persistent...

Happy holidays Homeito, Ken, and everyone.

[Marven]

-