Fork In The Road

[bombus]

Let's say...


A nine number flat betting method that bets on average every 5th spin is in profit 238 units (8.76% NET) after 84 wins from 302 bets (27.8% SR), and has a largest drawdown to date of 176 units.

A tweak exists that improves the raw results (not curve fit) by betting on average every 27th spin to show a profit of 324 units (56.25% NET) after 25 wins from 64 bets (39.06% SR), and has a largest drawdown to date of 66 units.


Given these results, in your opinion what would be the best approach?
A) Bet the raw method only.
B) Bet the tweaked method only.
C) bet the raw method X 1, and the tweaked method X 2 or more?
D) Other?

Any input/suggestions would be appreciated.


Cheers.

[Proofreaders2000]

I like option C.  Actually, you could play the tweaked method only, but since the raw method tends to profit as well, you could do both methods for research purposes.

[Marven]

Perform a primary test on both, the raw and tweaked method, for the same number of placed bets each.

Pick the one with the better z-score and perform the real extensive test on it.

[poxet pool]

D..keep it at every 5th spin but reduce ur drawdown to 50 units..keeps it in par for regular 1-2 hr. B&M sessions and avg. player bankroll...

[bombus]

As this is a method I'm testing ATM, I might as well keep testing both raw and tweaked until raw hits 1000 bets, then drop it and just continue with the tweaked version. Problem is it's a manual test so seeing as the tweaked version is only betting every 25 spins or so, that means I need to run the test manually for 25,000 spins to hit 1000 bets... that could take eons!

Yes, I'll go with the best z-score after that and then test with real money (low stakes) for a bit.

If it continues to perform well, I'll keep updating the results in this thread.

Thanks for the input.

[TwoCatSam]

that could take eons!

bombus

Exactly!  You know--there was a guy working on something interesting and he just vanished into thin air.  KonFuSed.  I have always felt he spent those eons and found what he was looking for.  He then shut up and left.  I don't blame him.  I wouldn't blame you for spending eons and learning a winning method/system and moving to Pandora!

Anyone know how Geronimo got his name?

Sam

[bombus]

Anyone know how Geronimo got his name?

HOW GERONIMO GOT HIS NAME

Written by Sue Littleton, after reading Watch for Me on the Mountain, a novel of Geronimo and the Apache Nation, by Native American author and Storyteller in Council to the Cherokee Nations, Forrest Carter.



Una moneda, señor, una moneda, por favor,
'n I will tell you how that diablo Geronimo got his name!
He stole the name of a good Catholic saint - San Geronimo,
patron saint of Kaskiyeh,
the pueblito my father's folks come from!
He was one of them Apache War Shamans,
and he took feroz mad against us mejicanos
when the soldados killed his young squaw 'n their three niños.
The warriors was all out on a huntin' party,
'n militares from the guarnación in the pueblo,
they found the Apache camp, just wimmin 'n kids 'n old men -
them soldados, they killed a lot of indios that day!
My father's mother, la abuelita,
she was a skinny little girl, nine or ten,
'n she hid good when them Apaches come lookin' for venganza,
shootin' n' burning.
She stayed hid 'til next mornin',
when hunnerts of buzzards circlin' in the sky
'n black smoke risin' in big fat greasy clouds
sent word that somethin' bad, somethin' real bad,
had happened at Kaskiyeh.

Everyone was waitin' for San Geronimo to show up
for Kaskiyeh's feast day;
The saint was s'posed to appear out of the desert,
it was a holy play the priest had wrote -
when this short wide ugly indio
face painted across with yellow streaks
under eyes black and shiny as a rattlesnake's,
'n a mean turned-down mouth like a toad's,
wearin' boot moccasins and a breechclout,
hair all bushed out in a war cut,
a headband tied around it,
come walkin' through the cactus 'n rocks toward the village.

The church bells was ringin'
'n all the soldados, who was mostly drunk by then,
n' seein' this indio wa'nt armed,
don't have no gun or knife or nuthin',
they started hollerin' and shoutin' and laughin',
"Here comes San Geronimo!"
'n pretty soon the whole pueblo was laughin' and shoutin'
"Geronimo!" "Geronimo!"

That indio come right up to the open gates,
'n he stuck his hand inside his polka-dot red shirt
'n he took this little bow and arrow from under his blouse
'n he notched it and drew it and that arrow flew
like a yellow-jacket wasp straight into the heart of the priest
who was waitin' up on the podio for San Geronimo.
The indio made a little adios wave of his hand
'n then he turned around
'n all the soldados took out after him,
cussin' 'n yellin' 'n wavin' rifles 'n pistols 'n sabers,
horseback 'n on foot.

The dust was so thick,
the people in the pueblo couldn't see nuthin'
so they all crowded up to the walls -
nobody thought of closin' the gates, 'cause they knew
the soldados was goin' to cut that crazy indio's head off
and bring it back hangin' by its bushy black hair!
The población, they could hear yells and rifles firin'
'n pretty soon all they hear was thuds 'n groans
'n then they don't hear nuthin'. Nada.
The dust settles 'n here come a soldado's horse,
reins draggin', empty saddle slick with blood,
'n finally they seen them Apaches
just standin' there, real quiet,
dead men 'n dead horses all aroun' 'em.
Next thing them Apaches start screamin' an' runnin'
toward the pueblo.

Three hunnert Apaches
come down from Nuevo Mejico on foot,
no horses, 'cause an Apache warrior,
he could go a hunnert miles
on a handful of piñon nuts 'n a mouthful of water,
travelin' at night
so wouldn't nobody see a war party that big.
Geronimo, he led them soldados into an ambush,
lured 'em out into the desert 'n got 'em all killed,
leavin' the pueblo to be massacred.

That's how Geronimo got his name,
that's when he got to be War Leader
of them Chiricahua diablos,
'n that was the end of the pueblo of Kaskiyeh -
even the big iron bells cracked
when they burned the church!

[TwoCatSam]

He stole the name of a good Catholic saint - San Geronimo,


bombus

Thank you for that.  Before he was Geronimo, he had a habit of butchering the Mexicans alive.  In their agony, they would call to San Geronimo for mercy and death.  They would scream "Geronimo" and yes, he stole the name.  When he skinned Mexicans alive they always yelled "Geronimo".  He thought they were calling to him, not praying to die.

So what was my point? 

If you could bankrupt the casinos, would you do it?  Or would you shut up and slip quietly into the ether?  By the time Geronimo was butchering Mexicans, his woman and children were dead.  It was pure revenge. 

If anyone thinks I'm paranoid, read up on what the drug lords in Tijuana do to the undercover agents they discover.  All for the love of money!

Sam

[poxet pool]

Maybe that would be a good name for a grail.."Geronimo"..I felt the same way when i first played roulette..when i was done they would not give me my money back..revenge is sweet...

[bombus]

...If you could bankrupt the casinos, would you do it?  Or would you shut up and slip quietly into the ether?...

Definitely the latter, Twocats.

------------------------------------

@ poxet pool,

When you get the chance, please post your "Geronimo" system. Thanks.

-------------------------------------

Update on test:

Busy time of year for me, so progress is slow.

After 2115 spins, betting 9.25 numbers (25% of the time I must bet 10 numbers) at each attack point.

Raw method now stands at 445 bets, 130 wins = 29.2% SR.
4119 units bet, 4680 units won = +561 units = 13.62% net.
z-score = 2.05 and rising.

Tweaked method now stands at 104 bets, 38 wins = 42.6% SR.
959 units bet, 1368 units won = +409 units = 42.6% net.
z-score = 2.72 and falling.

Admittedly a long way to go, but it's not looking too foul...

[poxet pool]

Hi Bombus..o.k. I'll go with this "Geronimo" grail ideal..It's a spinoff from ur barrel of monkey concept..5 point star to include the wobbly 0's..(I have to include 2 of em for american wheel)..what I did was trace ur 5 points...I'll call a pentagram.. all the way around the wheel..record the numbers..then I divided 6x6 down to six missing numbers.. out of that math..came up six numbers unspoken for..That six point star I'll call the Star of David..They are the numbers..11,22,13,12,21,14.. and are my base numbers to divide the wheel (00)into six sectors..since I like 3 sector poxets as a personal preference..I'll add the splits into my base numbers...9,32,3,10,31,4..so I start my bet with 12 numbers..9,11,32,22,3,13,10,12,31,21,4,14..the fun part is hitting them on the first spin..but thereafter were the ball lands..I'll play eva side closet to a base number listed.. goal is rely on a repeat sectors for win..Have not developed a Break or MM rules ...but without that in mind u see alot of potentials..try it on line..even RNG like bodog.. it's fun..perhaps a wad a cash and like a 4-6 spin rule can reap rewards... Thanks

[poxet pool]

o yeah bombus.. i played conservative hit n run with it the other nite..heres
table 1  table 2  table 3   table 4
32 hit      25          2            29
               22 hit     29           0 hit..i always hedge split 0's on every bet.. for recovery
                             21 hit      7
                                            8 hit
                                            21 hit
thrown $1 chips out there..i made around $100..really don't know total profit after drink expenditures..

[bombus]

Hi PP.

'GERONIMO' looks like a bit of fun to play.... I like your artwork too...I see natural talent there... lol!

Looking at your session - the play on table 4 – is that a break even situation or do you drop the eva side bets after the 8 hit?

-------------------------------------

BTW, the 'Barrel Of Monkeys' is evolving into nice addition for my bag of tricks.


Cheers.

[poxet pool]

Hi bombus..thanks for the artwork courtesy ..look what picaso pulls in now...in the middle is suppose to be the eagle/thunderbird on Geronimos headstone..Ambush strategy..unfortunately I applied the evil progression in play on all tables but produced good wins..I keep the eva sides bets up along the others..So when the 8 hit.. i got a profit and start over my play.. I'll restart with base 12(+0'S) after a win..sometimes I'll give it up if I got 18 numbers covered and sometimes push it to 24..and start over again..I'll check tote boards when I walk up to a table and check for the unusual like repeats..stick doz...I'll start play...soon hope to come up with rules to tame this baby...thanks

[poxet pool]

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