You decide

[bjb007]

Wildcard

OK for the present we'll agree to disagree but
be warned -- I'll never stop trying to convince
you of the error of your ways!

I've used my software with RNGs and have input
a lot of spins from Dublinbet and I see no real
difference in results.

Regarding the "sleepers" in Sam's pics, I found that
one of Diarmaid's posted spins from Dublinbet had
a number which didn't hit for 259 spins - more than
I've seen on an RNG in over a year of testing.

I'm working on a prog which will, I hope, provide
conclusive evidence that there's no difference
between live wheels and RNGs as far as I'm
concerned but remember that I don't believe
in systems - just in waiting for a good bet.

Back to programming.  Watch this space.

[Wildcard]

 bjb007, what do you mean by error in my ways ?

I didn´t preach against RNGs, although i have the perception that they can seemingly produce not "pure" random results.

A straight up number can sleep well over 300 spins, and if your experience with RNGs shows otherwise, then maybe that´s a clue to understanding my point of view (above).

But let me stress that i also intuitively believe RNGs (with it´s virtues and defects) may not be of disadvantage to the gambler if they keep acting as "expected" of them.

Nevertheless i am comfortable with the idea of being proven incorrect on my assuptions.


You said:   

just in waiting for a good bet

See ? We do agree upon a lot of things 

I wish you good programming sessions, and i´ll keep an eye on what´s happening.

[bjb007]

Wildcard

Well, here's a problem.  You say
" But let me stress that I also intuitively believe RNGs
(with it´s virtues and defects) may not be of disadvantage
to the gambler if they keep acting as "expected" of them."

Why do you expect and RNG to act in a certain way?
And what way is that?

The only function of an RNG is to serve random numbers.
If you find that a disadvantage then why play roulette?

Can you prove that the numbers served by an RNG aren't
random?   Fact is that if they are random it can't be proved.

So we have to tackle the problem in a scientific way - which
is to proved that they're not random.

Don't know how many numbers it would take to prove that.
Can you help with this?

[TwoCatSam]

Fact is that if they are random it can't be proved.

Therein lies the rub!

Prove to me your left foot itches.  You may scratch it, but did it really itch?  I doubt it!

Sam

[Wildcard]

 bjb007, man, you´re really messing my words up.

I never said RNGs outcomes would be a disadvantage, i said the opposite, please re-read my post before this one.

For the record >> I believe RNGs do make random results. Can i prove it ? Of course not, that´s why i never use facts (although i prefer using facts) to support my beliefs, or my empirical observations, which can be flawed.

Why do RNGs "behave" a certain way ?  Analogy time, i guess, since i´m not very good at explaining...

Imagine we are mechanics... We know our customers well, Mr. RNG is your client and drives around on a bumpy road while Mr. Wheel is mine and he drives on a smooth road.

As a mechanic, if you were betting what auto parts would your client need sooner, you would bet a new suspension, maybe new tires.

I wouldn´t bet my client, Mr. Wheel would be going for that. Maybe some brakes and gears.

LOL, what a crappy analogy, but you get my point.

Here´s an example of how RNG´s can be tricky to understand: TurboGenius ran a Million RNG spins in order to find out some "extremes" like sleepers.

You may already know his page nolinks://nolinks.freewebs.com/turbogenius/whatsthelongest.htm

In here, as you can see, he says:

Straight up bets (betting on a single number)
payout is 35 to 1
odds of winning are 1 in 37
(European Table Single 0)
and 1 in 38
(American Table Double 0)

Most spins without a showing :
466 spins (2 numbers did this)
Second most without a showing :
449 spins (2 numbers did this)

Longest repeating number :
4 spins (14 numbers did this)

This sample totally clashes with your example of a single (real wheel) number never having slept for longer than 259 spins. It sure tells me something about RNGs... at least it tells me to beware of them !  Why are these results  Real Vs. RNG  so different, can you account for that ?

Like i said above, i don´t doubt the RNG results are random... so your proposal for a scientific approach doesn´t apply to this issue.

But if you wish that we perform some kind of test on RNG Vs. Actuals, i am available. Let me know and i try to help with anything within my reach.

[winkel]

Hi wildcard,

i don´t know where you get your results from:

found in Wiesbaden: one Number which failed to appear for 623times
found in Bad Harzburg: 6times #8 in a row
yesterday in Wiesbaden 169 spins 19 times #19


RNG´s can be tested and proofed to be random in a very simple way:
every 10000 numbers all data´s are looked at. No absolutely no result mustn´t be different to all known stochastical results.

Thats very easy.

The other thing is, that nobody can define what is "random". We only can proof what we think random to be.

br
winkel

[TwoCatSam]

Friends, Methinks you are arguing apples vs oranges.

Theres TRNG or True Random Number Generators and theres a program written to take your money.  Whether TRNG and a real wheel will, over time, produce the exact results is not the issue.  The issue is this:  Do the casinos program their computers to cause you to lose by placing the puck where you are not?  I am 98% certain they do.

One way to test this, and I have, is to play a system against the "fun" mode in a casino and against a trot of numbers generated at Random.org.  There is absolutely no doubt in my mind the "fun" game is designed to suck you in.  One other thing.  I once played red and black with real money for about a hundred spins.  I got about ten zeros. 

The real money game?  Well, how much am I willing to lose to prove or disprove it? 

Sam

[Wildcard]

 winkel and Samster, thank you for your posts.

winkel, i mentioned where i got the results from and what kind of spins they were.

The example from Wiesbaden gives further credit to my doubts about RNGs.
I became interested on those statistics from Wiesbaden, so i will try to look at them later, assuming they are from the Casino´s webpage.

TCS, very practical approach, spot on !

[rev]

 :)Hi Guy's -with regard's to sleeper's iv'e ran a test for 2 day's non stop and reached 8 million spins,some of the result's are as this-single number slept for 580 spins -split 290 spins -street 190 spins lane 97 spins 1 dozen 48 spins.Even money 28 spins.Testing the last 12 number's [unhit] i've had them hold outplaying live  for 72 spins and the last 9 hold out 90 spins.The only advantage I can find is betting after a hit not before.

[TwoCatSam]

nolinks://vlsroulette.com/index.php?action=downloads;sa=view;id=38

Theres about 200 RNG real $ numbers.

[bjb007]

Sam
re your statement...

"Do the casinos program their computers to
cause you to lose by placing the puck
where you are not?"

The casino operators don't programme anything.
All the Playtech casinos use Playtech software
and all the numbers are generated by Playtech.

The casinos don't have their own RNG.
So the only question about Playtech casinos
is "Is Playtech honest".

Well, they've been around for a while and I'm
sure that if they were responsible for a con
of this magnitutude some authority somewhere
would have stopped them by now.

[TwoCatSam]

bj

As an American, I am forbidden access to PlayTech.  Microgaming and others, yes.

Listen, my mind is open and I'm weighing everything you say.  Frankly, I sincerely hope you are right!

Sam

[bjb007]

Sam

I don't much like Microgaming.  That's the
one which doesn't let you have a spin
without betting, isn't it?  And graphically
they're pretty ghastly.

Don't understand how you can access
MG sites and not Playtech.  Explain?
There are Playtech sites outside the USA
as well as MG.  And probably both in the USA.
So what's the difference?

[TwoCatSam]

bj

There are no on-line casinos within the USA.  Playtech decided on their own not to allow their feeds to go to any customer in the USA.  Why MG does is a mystery to me.  Why Riverbelle can show a live wheel is too.  Why can't Ladbroke's?  And Dublinbet is on VueTech, or something.  They will not accept us.

I understand that Playtech either sells or leases their software to casinos.  It has also been stated on this forum or the other one, that the software can be "tweaked" to the user's desire.  One fellow even said he inquired about opening his own casino and was told the software could be tweaked to assure a profit, no matter what.  Sure, you can hear or read anything.  Now, even being in the USA, I have had offers to own my own casino!  TwoCatCasino!  I love it.

Perhaps this question is much like religion; we may never know.

Sam

[bjb007]

There are people who offer to set up your
own casino but I doubt it's Playtech or
Microgaming or any other reputable company.

They have too much to lose and anyway I
expect that they charge a pretty hefty fee
knowing that the profits are practically
guaranteed and the set-up costs minimal.

And of course "someone said" is hearsay
and not admissable in court.

[bjb007]

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