What Gizmo Said Thats Worth Repeating

[Spike!]

Gizmo said this on another forum: (some of the words have been changed to protect myself from the mod on GG)

"If I have 40 spins, 30 that just happened and 10 that haven't yet happened, then I have 40 spins"

This is a very insightful statement.  Have you ever really looked at roulette that way? Looked in a way where the last 30 spins can be a roadmap to the next spin if you know how to read the map? Past spins have no physical influence on future spins, but they do contain clues if you kow how to look at them.  Gizmo has a way of seeing things and expressing them that are outside the box and hit me right between the eyes.  When I play, I'm always playing 40 spins, and 10 of them have yet to happen. 

[Noble Savage]

Spike what is it you are trying to accomplish here?

Sure, I would love to believe you and Gizmo. Trust me, we ALL would. But absurd uneducated claims is something, and truth and reality is something else. I prefer the latter.

Whatever you see in terms of past results, the next 10 spin even money bet sequence will be one of 1024 equally probable 10 spin sequences. Your subjective observations don't change the true odds.

This is a basic feature of random-walks. If it weren't true it wouldn't be a random process in the first place, it would be a deterministic process.

Randomness, chaos, and unpredictability exist in the universe whether you accept it or not. In fact without chaotic systems life would be impossible (there wouldn't, for instance, be a thing such as a human brain). Saying that you can predict true random outcomes is basically the same as saying true random outcomes don't exist.

As Herb says: Understand?

[GARNabby]

Spike what is it you are trying to accomplish here?

The impossible... even roulette will be figured out a long time before Gizmo, Spike, John Patrick, and the other "nuts" figure out each other.

[gizmotron]

Whatever you see in terms of past results, the next 10 spin even money bet sequence will be one of 1024 equally probable 10 spin sequences. Your subjective observations don't change the true odds.

I'll try one more time. Following trends has never been about changing the odds to anything favorable. Following trends has never been about expecting the odds to improve in my favor.

If you must delve into subjective conclusions and the adaptive TRUTH then please don't begin with a cheap trick of erecting a straw man argument. It's obvious that you want to debate the illusion that you hold as true and have nothing to do with an informative observation of the nature of randomness.

[gizmotron]

The impossible... even roulette will be figured out a long time before Gizmo, Spike, John Patrick, and the other "nuts" figure out each other.

Why are math oriented gamblers so angry? GARNabby has never been able to show the math that prevents the next spin in a streak of blacks from being black once again. What are the odds of two streaks in the EC's occurring in the next 60 spins? All I ever get is silence. So it must be noted that with an educated guess anyone could figure that a streak of silence has permeated the math oriented gamblers for such a long streak that it now classifies the situation as elegant.

[GARNabby]

Why are math oriented gamblers so angry? GARNabby has never been able to show the math that prevents the next spin in a streak of blacks from being black once again. What are the odds of two streaks in the EC's occurring in the next 60 spins? All I ever get is silence. So it must be noted that with an educated guess anyone could figure that a streak of silence has permeated the math oriented gamblers for such a long streak that it now classifies the situation as elegant.

Why does Giz run from every intelligent debate I put before him... he keeps asking while I keep answering, yet he "moves on", posts/replies something else which is actually the same old junk starting all over again.

Why does Giz want to make this sort of thing about some emotion, let alone anger?

What a sick ass you are, Mr Giz... just like Spike and the other "kids" on the phone.

[GARNabby]

Lunch-break is over... back to work.

[gizmotron]

Why does Giz run from every intelligent debate I put before him... he keeps asking while I keep answering, yet he "moves on", posts/replies something else which is actually the same old junk starting all over again.

Why does Giz want to make this sort of thing about some emotion, let alone anger?

What a sick ass you are, Mr Giz... just like Spike and the other "kids" on the phone.

All I want is an intelligent answer and not a dodge the question answer like this one. What are the odds for a streak from forming in the next 60 spins? Some of you math oriented people can't even admit that streaks exist. Did you know that other math oriented people study pattern recognition to prove that statistical advantages exist? It's just some people can't accept peer pressure from their own scientific interest. There is a fundamental question that must be to answer.

[Bayes]

What are the odds for a streak from forming in the next 60 spins?

You need to be more specific. How long is the streak? if you define a streak as 2 or more in a row, it's 100% that at least one side will streak.

[I have cookies]

Whats new about using 30 past spins as an road map ??

Twist things and make it look like an discovery - boring !!

Would be cool to see how it change things - if that is what you claim 



Cheers

[gizmotron]

You need to be more specific. How long is the streak? if you define a streak as 2 or more in a row, it's 100% that at least one side will streak.

Two or more in a row is an impractical streak. Suppose you track for 100 groups with 100 styles of trends from each group. Suppose you observe with a goal to see powerful dominances or patterns to form. What are the odds that any of that will follow a strict baseline alignment to the long term odds for 300 spins? You can only produce those odds for past spins. You would have to use the most recent spins to get the results that are statistically short term and the most recent. They would be the true odds based on true results. So, what are the predictive probability stats for the immediate 60 spins? There is such a thing as context. There is nothing that can stop a trend from continuing. I say there is a skill to dealing with what comes next in the short term. It certainly is not limited to probability assumptions.

[Nathan Detroit]

Gizmo ,

Let me  address this to you regarding  the  method making the FIRST bet of a pre selected EC  being  the  intermittence. If the  intermittence loses  twice in a row it means   we are in the midst of a run ( trend) and  this  should be  exploited until the first loss .

This is   about the general idea of this method  wiithout  giving any more details.

Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!

[gizmotron]

Gizmo ,

Let me  address this to you regarding  the  method making the FIRST bet of a pre selected EC  being  the  intermittence. If the  intermittence loses  twice in a row it means   we are in the midst of a run ( trend) and  this  should be  exploited until the first loss .

This is   about the general idea of this method  wiithout  giving any more details.

Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!

I somewhat agree, if you go ahead and follow winning trends that is.

[Nathan Detroit]

Gizmo,

Exactly ! The  point is getting  either a chop or a  run served on the same   platter.

N.D.

[Spike!]

Savage Said: >>Whatever you see in terms of past results, the next 10 spin even money bet sequence will be>>>

Let me ask you something.   When you look at the last 30 spins, do you see anything that makes sense there, patterns, trends, anything you can relate to or identify? If you can, why do you assume the next 10 spins will be gobblygook nonsense that will have you running out to the parking lot with your brain fried?

Do it another way.   Take the last 30 spins and seperate the last 10 from the first 20.   Do you see any kind of resemblance between them? If you do, why do you assume the next 10 unknown spins will be from another planet and have no resemblance as far as patterns or trends to the previous spins? What in the math tells you they will be so alien? The first 30 seem to fit together like a puzzle, why won't the next 10 fit the puzzle too?

[Spike!]

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