Guess Who’s Coming to Winner?

[bombus]

I've decided to have a crack at this educated guessing caper.

Being a total guessing novice I will need some training wheels for sure. So I've decided to use the dozens & columns as my target area and will begin by incorporating some mechanical elements into the strategy. After a while if I get any good at it I intend to relax the mechanical side of things.

So, on any given bet I will be guessing on either two dozens or two columns. This covers two thirds (minus 0) of the numbers, which for a beginner might be a bit easier than the EC's.

I'm going to use two selection systems in their most basic form as a charting guide, and try to guess my way through the maze they create as each session unfolds.

The two systems are, The BlackPearl Double DZ/CL Strategy, and one of my own systems, which will suit the BlackPearl because sometimes they select the same bets, and sometimes they select different bets. This means I can try to guess which one to use and switch between the two on any given spin, or even select hybrid bets, or skip certain spins.

Together, I call these two selection methods, Diamonds & Pearls.

As well as guessing on the outcomes I'm also going to guess on when to stake and when to rake. Using an 8 step positive progression, part of the strategy will be to guess when to continue to the end of the 8 steps, or when to stop short of 8 steps and take a lesser profit.


The Stake & Rake Progression.

Bet 1) 2-2, win +6, loss -4.

Bet 2) 3-3, win +9, loss -4.

Bet 3) 5-5, win +15, loss -5.

Bet 4) 10-10, win +30, loss -10.

Bet 5) 10-10, win +30, loss -0.

Bet 6) 15-15, win +45, loss -0.

Bet 7) 20-20, win +65, loss +5.

Bet 8 ) 20-20, win +85, loss +25.


I've had half a dozen or so goes at this so far, and can already see that our resident educated guessers might be right about the possibility of improved efficiency with lots of practice.

Cheers.

 

[Spike!]

The Stake & Rake Progression.>>>

Progression? A true guesser don't need no stinking progression...

[bombus]

I'm not a true guesser that's for sure, but give me time.

Until then I'd like to win some money and this progression is all about winning some money, and using the casino's money to do so.

[medo]

The Stake & Rake Progression.>>>

Progression? A true guesser don't need no stinking progression...

How much for the book,Spiky

[gizmotron]

When you flat bet these scenarios you will see that you will also learn how you go up and down in different degrees of rapid or slow change. I personally use a three wins and out, hit and run tactic. My goal is to get three wins ahead. If you can get three wins of playing two dozens or two columns at the same time, per bet, then you will have one successful bet more than the statistically correct amount that you are supposed to get. So if you bet seven units on each column or dozen then three eventual wins, your goal, will yield you 21 units or a full stack of chips, +1.

If you play to win as many three wins and out sessions as you can then you should have a stop loss amount for your losses too. I would end any session when you get  two losses back. That's a total of 28 units lost. When you win it's 21 units won. You should be able to win almost every session. But you will lose a few too. Playing a fairly balanced flat game allows you to perfect your guessing accuracy. Knowing when to start and what to bet on is what this is all about. My guessing game is good because my tactics and reading what the table is doing is pretty good too. So I'm always searching for what is happening. Winning situations don't last very long. They always change. Sometimes all that you can get are one or two steps that work very good. You need to have a game that only uses one or two steps at a time.

By simplifying the methods you can see the guessing process / results easier. You will learn what happens from it. You will be able to see what works and what does not work easier.

[bombus]

Thanks for the advice, Gizmotron.

A quick game's a good game, no argument there, but I think in the beginning I will play sessions of around 50 spins, or even some up to 100 if time allows. I want to gain experience, and also see what kind of variance I can expect random to throw at me. Short burst sessions might not have enough continuity for that purpose, meaning I will likely often get 3 winners straight off and stopping then would yeild no knowledge for a learner it could even be counter productive. As my confidence/competence improves I would definitely be looking to set realistic and achievable win goals, etc.

Although for now I will focus betting on the Stake & Rake progression, my other eye will be firmly fixed on flat betting performance for the reasons you mentioned. But like I said in my first post, I will not be committed to running through my whole progression, and can rake in the chips even after the first win if I think I should.

Do you think I'm being a bit overzealous trying for 8 wins in a row while covering 2/3rds of the wheel? The total cost to bankroll for each attempt is a possible 10 units, and that is at its most expensive on bet 4. So each time I get to bet 5 and beyond there is zero impact on the bankroll. For bet 7 & 8 even a loss results in some profit. If I stop, a win on bet 4 is 1½ stacks, and if I continue, a win on bet 8 is a whopping 4+ stacks. 

Any mathboyz with input on this? What are the chances of a 24/37 bet winning 8 times in a row?

I do know that each bet has a 24/37 chance of winning, and as roulette is a game of independent trials, every time I win, my next bet has the same 24/37 chance of winning.

As for simplifying the method, the bet selection of Diamonds & Pearls is very simple indeed so no problem there with distractive calculations, etc. I can almost fully focus on guessing decisions.

Whatever happens, I will have some fun with this exersize.

Cheers. 

[bombus]

Just played a 71 spin live session.

Had 68 bets, and managed to get 47 wins - 21 losses.

That's plus 5 units flat betting.

Messing around with the progression I finished plus 10 units... Yeeha!

The first halfish of the session I got slaughtered and was at 21w/17L. Then I got a roll on for the second halfish with 26w/4L - It sure would be nice to get that second half result all the time!

Cheers.

[Bayes]

Any mathboyz with input on this? What are the chances of a 24/37 bet winning 8 times in a row?

3.1% 

[gizmotron]

Do you think I'm being a bit overzealous trying for 8 wins in a row while covering 2/3rds of the wheel?

I would try for two in a row at most. You can learn to work your eight steps with one or two at a time. Things change rapidly. Two steps is more in line with what currently happens. That's why I flat bet. It's simpler to stay as close to balance as possible. Two wins is the balance point.

[Number Six]

Nothing currently happens, hence the reason why you're distinctly bamboozled by the random process and even basic mathematics.

[gizmotron]

Nothing currently happens, hence the reason why you're distinctly bamboozled by the random process and even basic mathematics.

You are a self accusing know nothing yourself. Your own accusation of knowing nothing makes you the last person on planet earth to take advice from. You don't know how or why math, odds, or probability statistics have no effect on random occurrences. You are completely clueless regarding any random process. Yet you never stop drum beating your tired mantra. Any chirping coming out of you is just wild birds making a bunch of hub bub in the deep forest. You are worthless to this discussion. You are irrelevant. Your strange beliefs are nothing but forum clamorings. Thanks for attempting to disrupt another thread, pest.

[Noble Savage]

You are a self accusing know nothing yourself. Your own accusation of knowing nothing makes you the last person on planet earth to take advice from. You don't know how or why math, odds, or probability statistics have no effect on random occurrences. You are completely clueless regarding any random process. Yet you never stop drum beating your tired mantra. Any chirping coming out of you is just wild birds making a bunch of hub bub in the deep forest. You are worthless to this discussion. You are irrelevant. Your strange beliefs are nothing but forum clamorings. Thanks for attempting to disrupt another thread, pest.

[bombus]

3.1%  

Thanks, Bayes........OUCH! that bad eh?

Ok, so for 100 bets with 3 winners, what would be the best way to divide up the 97 losses amongst the 8 steps of the progression?

Would it be like 128-64-32-16-8-4-2-1 = 97/255 x 100? If so, not good.

Or could I divide the 97 losses evenly amongst the 8 steps? Is so, good.

Cheers.

[bombus]

Just played a session of only 8 spins. Won the first step, lost the second step, and then guessed 6 winners in a row and stopped!

Thats -4, +45 = +41 units in a few minutes...cool.

Chickened out on step 7 & 8, though.

Cheers.

[Spike!]

Guessing is not for the feint of heart. Systems are much easier to play. Guessing is playing without a net, its a ton of work, but its the only thing that wins. It calls for constant thinking, I'm not worried it will ever catch on.

[Spike!]

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