Why Are MathBoyz Always Close Minded?

[Noble Savage]

It's what you do too.

[Spike!]

It's also a crutch that prevents the wider discussion that is almost feared to occur by many here.>>

A crutch is needed when your worldview is threatened. Its like when card counting was discovered by the casinos in the 60's. It had been going on since BJ was invented but the casinos didn't believe it and were mostly ignorant of it. They literally went berzerk when it came to light. They moaned and cried and had meetings in boardrooms that went on for days. They slapped so many restrictions on the game people almost stopped playing it. The card counting revelation so shattered their worldview that a lot of them still haven't gotten over it. They had their heads in the sand, just like MathBoyz do over past spins.

[Kelly]

Yeah well card counting can be proved as to why it works, now theres a gap you need to fill regarding your random  reading claims. It also says a lot that you count in 99,9% of the population as fanatics who rants about independent trials and the 2 of you as the "knowing ones". 

Mind you, the gap needs to be filled before we stop the laughing.

Im amazed that you can`t come up with some new topics, i wasn`t sure that i werent reading the same pages as for 14 days ago.

[Mr J]

I'm tired of it as well but I won't lose sleep over it....... There are 37/38 numbers and the payout is 35:1 OR any number can hit at any time! No sh*t, really? I ignore it. Its the EASY way for people to not study methods more, IMO. Ken

[Bayes]

There are 37/38 numbers and the payout is 35:1 OR any number can hit at any time!

You guys want it both ways. Yes, any number can hit at any time BUT there are 'clues' in past spins which tell you that it isn't the case. 

It doesn't really bother me but if you made your minds up it would make you look a little less ridiculous.

[MAX]

When a patient sits down in your office and says, "Doctor, I have chest pain," you begin a game of guessing what is going on under that person's skin. Since you can't be certain without doing something implausible like examining a potentially diseased organ with your naked eye, you must make a choice without being sure it is the right one.


Information(past numbers) can help you reduce your uncertainty. It allows you to reduce your uncertainty about how uncertain you are about the cause of the patient's symptom!(following numbers)


"Four hundred years of scientific research and the broad acceptance of a formal axiom system have not brought a common agreement on the philosophical foundations of probability theory

Bayes rule, also known as Bayes theorem, provides a method of updating the probability of a random variable when information is acquired about a related random variable. The standard format of Bayes rule is:

P(B) is called prior probability of B, as it reflects our belief in event B before obtaining information on event A. Likewise,  P(B|A) is the posterior probability of B, and represents our new belief on event B after applying Bayes rule with the information collected from event A.
Bayes rule provides the formal basis for the active and rapidly evolving field of Bayesian probability and statistics. In the Bayesian view, inference is a problem of belief dynamics. Bayes rule provides a principled methodology for belief change in the light of new information."


Probabilities are the  states of partial information about past numbers when applied in the correct way can assist you with playing the next numbers.


Regards
Max

[Mr J]

 "any number can hit at any time BUT there are 'clues' in past spins" >>> I dont see how these two statements contradict each other. Ken

[Nathan Detroit]

Just let`s  all go to the  casino and leave the math boyzz with their opinion at  the key board. 


Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!

[Spike!]

Im amazed that you can`t come up with some new topics>>>

You mean all those OTHER ways to beat roulette? You're too funny. Are you the person on the BJ list who complains that all they talk about is card counting? There IS nothing else worthwhile in roulette, unless you like staring at the wheel for hours and hoping for the best..

[Spike!]

Yes, any number can hit at any time BUT there are 'clues' in past spins which tell you that it isn't the case. >>>

No matter how many times its explained, you never seem to 'get' it. Having a clue to the next spin doesn't negate the fact that the ball can land anywhere it likes. How could it. Do you even know what a guess is? It means you don't know the next outcome, you're giving it your best shot. It could land in any pocket, you're just trying to narrow it down to which half.

[Spike!]

Information(past numbers) can help you reduce your uncertainty>>

Exactly so. They help narrow down your choice for the next bet.

>>Four hundred years of scientific research and the broad acceptance of a formal axiom system have not brought a common agreement on the philosophical foundations of probability theory>>

Amen, brother.

>>Probabilities are the  states of partial information about past numbers when applied in the correct way can assist you with playing the next numbers.>>

My god, the light of truth! Where have you been? Will you be my new best friend? My email in in my profile..

[Bayes]

Having a clue to the next spin doesn't negate the fact that the ball can land anywhere it likes.

Correct. But if your 'clues' turn out to be valid (which they must, because you claim better results than expectation) then that implies you know where 'it likes'. Since you don't take into account any factors which determine where it 'likes' (ie; the initial conditions of the ball and wheel), we are forced to admit that the whole enterprise of guessing is absurd.

No matter how many times its explained, you never seem to 'get' it.

Funny, just what I was thinking.

[Bayes]

"Four hundred years of scientific research and the broad acceptance of a formal axiom system have not brought a common agreement on the philosophical foundations of probability theory
Max

Um, since when does a common agreement among a bunch of philosophers in their ivory towers determine whether probability WORKS or not? That's the hallmark of the scientific method, it gives results. The foundations of probability are irrelevant to the real world.

If you knew anything about philosophy you'd realize that many philosophers trash the whole scientific enterprise as being 'invalid', neither is there any consensus in any other field of philosophy. 

Still, glad to see you brought up my theorem. 

I'd love to see an example of how you use it to get better-than-expectation results, as would other budding educated guessers I'm sure!

Please, give us a demo. 

[Noble Savage]

It could land in any pocket

you're just trying to narrow it down to which half.

[Bayes]

you're just trying to narrow it down to which half.

Noble, I missed that one. 

[Bayes]

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