Beating roulette with standard deviation???

[cubanopro]

Hi guys!


I just read recently a very interesting pdf talking and actually explaining how it could be possible of beating the game of roulette with the use of standard deviation.  Now I now many of you must be like: Here is another one that cannot accept the fact that the house always WINS!! I'm not saying that it can be done, all I want to do is discuss this with some intellectuals to see what they think.  At first I was very skeptical, then I read it and thought a lot about it and then I got more and more interested so please bear with me.

Ok so the first thing that got me hooked was this simple fact:

Let's pretend that I toss 12 times a fair coin and all the outcomes happened to be heads.  Then I call my friend that did not witness the previous 12 results and ask him what should come next.  Obviously he should tell me that both outcomes have the same probability of falling.  However, this is where it gets interesting, I know that if I was to conduct many and many routines of 13 coinflips there would be a 99. 7% chance of hitting both outcomes at least once.  How did I get this %? By using standard deviation.

Standard deviation is a very useful tool.  It shows how much variation there is from the average.  For example in this example the ''average/mean'' or the ''expected outcome'', if you prefer, would be 12 divided by 2 = 6.

The standard deviation (the third one) equals to 5. 19615
This means that 99. 7% of the time a tails and heads should fall at least 0. 80 (6-5. 19615) time every 12 coinflips.

Now can somebody tell me how could this help me in the game of roulette?

I've determined an example for roulette about hitting dozens:
If I was to conduct many groups of 12 spins I would notice (supposing the wheel is fair) that 68% of the time every dozen should fall between 2 and 6 times.  Additionally 95% of the time every dozen should fall between 1 and 7 times and finally 99. 7% of the time every dozen should fall between 0 and 9 times.

How could this information possibly help me? Some might suggest betting from the beginning since we know that 95% of the time we win, others would say to wait for an event (waiting for a missing dozen for 11 spins and then flat bet until winning).  I don't think either of these solutions would work.  For starters there are no possible betting combination that would make it possible to be positive in the long run even with a 95% chance.  Waiting is not the answer. . I think.  I have the impression that knowing the standard deviation could sincerely help the game but I also have some thoughts telling me it is impossible.

Tell me what you think geniuses!
Any comments would be appreciated!

PS: Feel free to check out the pdf or to look out for the name of the website.  It is called John Solitude.
Thanks in advance
Rafael

[keel44]

It all has to do with strike rate or "hit" rate.  If your betting an even chance, you are covering about 49% of the board.  If you bet 1,000 times, your "hit" rate will be very close to 49%.  It is fairly possible to go 3 for 20.  Also fairly possible to go 15 for the next 20.  The BIGGEST problem is:  You don't know when your downswing will come, as well as when the upswing will come.

You figure out the when, as well as how much, you got yourself a winning situation.

Waiting for 12 blacks in a row, then bet red, is not going to work because you DON'T know if your in the middle of 25 blacks in a row or not.  Remember each spin is independent and unless you know the "WHEN", the house will grind you down.

I would make a guess and say if you cover 18 numbers and bet for 200 spins, and your "hit" percentage is say 45%.  You will probably do a little better the next 200 spins, but even that is no guarantee, not to mention practical.

What I think the best way to attack roulette, is to bet for the strange patterns to happen.  4 dozens in a row, repeating numbers, alternating results, ext..................
These are some of the best systems.  There should be chaos in random events.




KEEL

[cubanopro]

Hi Keel thanks for such a quick response.

I understand what you mean but the thing is that I still believe that we don't need to know the ''when'' like you say. . . With standard deviation (which you didn't mention in your response) we can know for sure that an event will IN THE LONG RUN follow some kind of a pattern.  For example:

99,7% of the time every dozen will fall between 0 and 9 times every 12 spins.   (Taking of course under consideration that the wheel is in fact fair) So all I'm saying is that perhaps it could be beaten with the right betting combination.  Like you said, I do not know if a dozen will fall 8 times, 2 times, or even 12 times for that matter.  But I do know that if the wheel is fair, only 0. 3% of the time will it fall more than 9 times in 12 spins. 

I hope this clarifies my point. 
Again I thank you for wanting to help me! 
Rafael

[keel44]

You started a very good topic.  I must say that in order to use standard deviation, the results must have done something out of the ordinary and will return back to a more normal pattern.  You could wait until an extraordinary set of circumstances, then bet for a return to normalcy.  This has been tried many times, but what has been found is that the range for normalcy is too broad.

What you could do is flat bet any dozen for 12 spins, if you win less than expected, raise your stakes.  If you hit more than expected lower your stakes.  You will find that 99.7% of the time, you win what is expected, but you will lose money because the house does not pay you enough.

I much rather play FOR the extreme to happen instead of hoping the extreme return to normal.




Is this thread about brainstorming a system using standard deviation, or just a think tank?

KEEL

[cubanopro]

Hi Keel!
This is a good topic I find :p! What you said concerning the range for normalcy being too broad is completely true in fact like I already mentioned 68% of the time every dozen should fall between 2 and 6 times every 12 spins.  That percentage is really high which means that dozens for example 68% (or fairly often if you prefer) of the time should show up near the expected value which would be a bit less than 4 times.

Anyways the reason I post this here was because I tried a system weeks ago in a real casino (not online) and did win around 52 sessions.  I always went to the casino with 400 $ (bankroll) and my goal was to reach 120$ before leaving.  My winnings lasted around 2 months and then I lost twice in a week so I stopped.  In other words I won around 52 sessions of 120$ and lost 2 of 400$. . . which means that I'm still very up.  Still I'll tell you what I did and let's find out if I was lucky. 

Very simple, I waited a dozen or a column not to show up for 11 times and bet the following 25$, 50$, 75$, 100$, 150$.  I did the same with 1:1 payouts but I waited 7 spins instead of 11.  The betting was a bit different: 25$, 50$, 100$, 200$.

In orders words, I'm trying to check if standard deviation had something to do with my winnings or was I just  extremely lucky? And to answer your question this thread is to brainstorm a system using standard deviation. .

Good day!
Rafael

[weddings]

25 50 100 200 is only a progression of 4 times.  if red were to gone to a steak of 12 you would have lost your bankroll. 

[albalaha]

Dear Cubanopro,
                    mathematics has nothing to do with the game of roulette except calcualting your stake and winnings. No branch of science or mathematics like algebra, statistics, geometry, trigonometry, permutation and combination, probability and physics can earn consistently in this game. Never forget this is a game of speculation and wizards like Albert Einstein surrendered to this game. Nice bankroll, flexible table limit, strategy to select numbers to bet upon, total stake, progression, stop loss and loss recovery plan are essential tools for winning in this game and a person who is skilled enough to calculate his losses and stake can play this game very well and scientists will fail miserably here. If someone needs any sort of guidance relating to the tools I told, for free, PM me or email me.

[cubanopro]

25 50 100 200 is only a progression of 4 times.   if red were to gone to a steak of 12 you would have lost your bankroll.   

Yes I am aware.  I only lost 2 times 400$.  We have to agree that a red not coming 12 times in a row is not the most common thing (I will happen with an accurate certainty, but not very often. . . ).  What I'm trying to say here is that it doesn't matter having a progression of 4 bets, the important thing is winning at the end of the day.  Besides I had to bet a fifth time it would have being 400$ to win a sad little 25$. . Risk ratio becomes incredibly high.   

[keel44]

Hi Keel!
This is a good topic I find :p! What you said concerning the range for normalcy being too broad is completely true in fact like I already mentioned 68% of the time every dozen should fall between 2 and 6 times every 12 spins.  That percentage is really high which means that dozens for example 68% (or fairly often if you prefer) of the time should show up near the expected value which would be a bit less than 4 times.

Anyways the reason I post this here was because I tried a system weeks ago in a real casino (not online) and did win around 52 sessions.  I always went to the casino with 400 $ (bankroll) and my goal was to reach 120$ before leaving.  My winnings lasted around 2 months and then I lost twice in a week so I stopped.  In other words I won around 52 sessions of 120$ and lost 2 of 400$. . . which means that I'm still very up.  Still I'll tell you what I did and let's find out if I was lucky.  

Very simple, I waited a dozen or a column not to show up for 11 times and bet the following 25$, 50$, 75$, 100$, 150$.  I did the same with 1:1 payouts but I waited 7 spins instead of 11.  The betting was a bit different: 25$, 50$, 100$, 200$.

In orders words, I'm trying to check if standard deviation had something to do with my winnings or was I just  extremely lucky? And to answer your question this thread is to brainstorm a system using standard deviation. .

Good day!
Rafael

About your strategy, you were not lucky.  Over time, those strategies will fail.  For you to be profiting early on is well within range of what is expected.  

May I now warn you that continuing to play at those stakes will make you lose your profits.  Maybe now is the time to LOWER your stakes.  Cut it in half, play with $200.  Try to walk away with $60 profit.  If you lose $200 a couple times in close succession, RAISE stakes again.

If you want to test your theory, just wait for 2 spins of a dozen not to show, and don't wait at all for an even chance and see if you do about the same.



KEEL

[cubanopro]

Hi albalaha!

With all due respect, I will have to disagree with you because I truly believe that the game of roulette could be beaten with physics.  Nothing is random like you said.  Everything happens because something was done.  In others words, every outcome in the game of roulette is the result of a serial of actions (throwing the ball with a certain force, diamond being hit in the way, weight of the ball, direction of the spin, air pressure and so many others) and not the result of randomness.  I believe nothing could ever be truly random.  Everything happens for a reason and we just call it random because we are not yet at a point where we can predict everything.  I believe centuries from now we will look at what we call today ''randomness'' with a laugh.  Anyways I am getting away of our subject so I'll come back to standard deviation. 

Like I said earlier, I'm not saying that we CAN beat the house edge with the use of standard deviation BUT still I think it is something to consider.  I find it interesting that you quote Albert Einstein when saying it is a game of speculation and then say that progression, stop loss, strategy selection and others are essential to winning in the game of roulette.  That's funny because if I recall well mister Einstein said that you cannot take any money from a roulette table unless you steal from it (regardless of progression, stop loss, strategy selection. . . ). 

That was my point.  By the way I'm new here so if anyone could tell what a PM is. . . .  I would appreciate it!

Thanks!
Rafael

Never forget this is a game of speculation and wizards like Albert Einstein surrendered to this game.  Nice bankroll, flexible table limit, strategy to select numbers to bet upon, total stake, progression, stop loss and loss recovery plan are essential tools for winning in this game and a person who is skilled enough to calculate his losses and stake can play this game very well and scientists will fail miserably here.  If someone needs any sort of guidance relating to the tools I told, for free, PM me or email me.

[cubanopro]

Hi Keel thanks for your reply!

I don't want to go back to a casino without having something tested. . . or else it is called gambling.  I would like to test something here with a program or something before actually betting money. 

And I don't understand what you mean. . .  After waiting for a dozen 2 spins. . . what do I do? How long is the bet combination? Tell me what you have in mind and I'll tell you if it makes sense.

Have a good day!
Rafael 

[keel44]

Hi Keel thanks for your reply!

I don't want to go back to a casino without having something tested. . . or else it is called gambling.  I would like to test something here with a program or something before actually betting money. 

And I don't understand what you mean. . .  After waiting for a dozen 2 spins. . . what do I do? How long is the bet combination? Tell me what you have in mind and I'll tell you if it makes sense.

Have a good day!
Rafael 

What I mean is if you wanted to test your theory about waiting for a dozen to not show for 11 spins.  Try waiting for it not to show for only 2 spins, then start your betting scheme.  You can find out if it was the waiting that won or not.

[keel44]

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