Beating roulette with standard deviation???

[cubanopro]

Hi guys!


I just read recently a very interesting pdf talking and actually explaining how it could be possible of beating the game of roulette with the use of standard deviation.  Now I now many of you must be like: Here is another one that cannot accept the fact that the house always WINS!! I'm not saying that it can be done, all I want to do is discuss this with some intellectuals to see what they think.  At first I was very skeptical, then I read it and thought a lot about it and then I got more and more interested so please bear with me.

Ok so the first thing that got me hooked was this simple fact:

Let's pretend that I toss 12 times a fair coin and all the outcomes happened to be heads.  Then I call my friend that did not witness the previous 12 results and ask him what should come next.  Obviously he should tell me that both outcomes have the same probability of falling.  However, this is where it gets interesting, I know that if I was to conduct many and many routines of 13 coinflips there would be a 99. 7% chance of hitting both outcomes at least once.  How did I get this %? By using standard deviation.

Standard deviation is a very useful tool.  It shows how much variation there is from the average.  For example in this example the ''average/mean'' or the ''expected outcome'', if you prefer, would be 12 divided by 2 = 6.

The standard deviation (the third one) equals to 5. 19615
This means that 99. 7% of the time a tails and heads should fall at least 0. 80 (6-5. 19615) time every 12 coinflips.

Now can somebody tell me how could this help me in the game of roulette?

I've determined an example for roulette about hitting dozens:
If I was to conduct many groups of 12 spins I would notice (supposing the wheel is fair) that 68% of the time every dozen should fall between 2 and 6 times.  Additionally 95% of the time every dozen should fall between 1 and 7 times and finally 99. 7% of the time every dozen should fall between 0 and 9 times.

How could this information possibly help me? Some might suggest betting from the beginning since we know that 95% of the time we win, others would say to wait for an event (waiting for a missing dozen for 11 spins and then flat bet until winning).  I don't think either of these solutions would work.  For starters there are no possible betting combination that would make it possible to be positive in the long run even with a 95% chance.  Waiting is not the answer. . I think.  I have the impression that knowing the standard deviation could sincerely help the game but I also have some thoughts telling me it is impossible.

Tell me what you think geniuses!
Any comments would be appreciated!

PS: Feel free to check out the pdf or to look out for the name of the website.  It is called John Solitude.
Thanks in advance
Rafael

[RouletteFanatic]

It won't work lol. True that in 12 coinflips theres a 99.7% chance that either outcome will happen. But since you already flipped a single coin 12 times and have the same outcome, the next outcome will still be 50% for both heads, tails.

[cubanopro]

Hi! Thanks for your response but could you elaborate a bit more please?

My question is (if we go back to my previous example about the coinflip) would you have an advantage if you knew in advance that 99. 7% of the time a tails or a head will fall every 12 toss?

For example if you were to bet (the coin is fair of course) and 11 times it was heads, would you be more intelligent by betting on tails because you know that even though they both have a 50% chance of falling on the 12 flip, in the long run only 0. 3% of the time will a heads show up again??

I am very aware that in the short run chances are still 1/2, but in the long run it is not.  In fact that is the reason why it would be extremely odd to see 20 heads in a row (could still happen because of the 0. 3%), because the standard deviation tells us what the expected difference from the mean should be without being statistically incorrect.  We must always remember that if something has a chance of happening, one moment or another, it will happen.  Regardless of the small percentage which in this case is 0. 3%.

Regards
Rafael     

[cubanopro]

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