Gambler's Paradox..???

[Steve]

The feeling appears mutual.

And that's a lovely image.

[Hugh Demann]

Nothing happens without a reason, or more accurately without "cause".  Nothing is ever random - there is always an element of predictability. 

Funny how you don't include online RNGs in your happy AP universe. .

Let me guess, the physical world and the digital world operate under different 'laws', right. . ?

Sure they do. .

[Steve]

Funny how you don't include online RNGs in your happy AP universe. .

Let me guess, the physical world and the digital world operate under different 'laws', right. . ?

Sure they do. .

If you're being sarcastic saying I contradict myself, you are 'silly'. The laws that govern AP, RNG and the rest of the universe are the same. With AP, the ball is real and physical, and we can calculate predictions with variables. With RNG, there are no such variables. AP and RNG are both NOT random. But real roulette spins are PREDICTABLE to a degree, whereas RNG are not at least to the point where you can predict the next game outcome with enough accuracy to overcome the house edge. More specifically I do believe RNG is beatable, because anything is possible, but I dont believe anyone has figured it out, yet. For sure beating RNG or normal roulette is not possible with things like progression. If people want to beat RNG, they'll need to try different things.

[Hugh Demann]

With AP, the ball is real and physical, and we can calculate predictions with variables.   With RNG, there are no such variables. 

Nice try Steve.  .   But completely WRONG. 

There are MORE digital RNG 'cheats' than physical AP 'cheats'. 

There are MORE exploitable digital 'variables' than physical 'variables'. 

The computer RNG may be 'programmed' to spin AGAINST the online roulette player.  .  !   true.  .  ?

The live dealer may also be 'programmed' (trained) to spin AGAINST the B&M roulette player.  .  !   TRUE.  .  ?

A 'physical' Advantage Player is therefore NO better at prediction than a 'digital' Advantage Player. 

Maths Question) How many roulette spins constitutes the 'short term' ?

A) 10
B) 100
C) 1000
D) 10,000
E) I have NO idea, and neither does anyone else.  .   (except Dyksexlic and Spike)

If people want to beat RNG, they'll need to try different things. 

Oh, REALLY Is that a 'fact'?   (ok, NOW I'm being sarcastic.  .  !)


Correct Answer) E

[Mike]

How many roulette spins constitutes the 'short term' ?

The question is meaningless. It's like asking "how long is a piece of string?"

except Dyksexlic, Spike and Gizmotron)

and Hugh Demann, because Hugh Demann = Dyksexlic

[Hugh Demann]

The question is meaningless.  It's like asking "how long is a piece of string?"

That's precisely my POINT. . !

Every roulette system on this site (except the HG) is targetting the 'short term'

But there is NO clear definition of 'short term'. . !

Duh. . !!!

and Hugh Demann, because Hugh Demann = Dyksexlic

Sure. .

and Mike = Jack Haas

[Mike]

Even if there was a clear definition, it wouldn't help you to win. Winning depends on whether you have an advantage or not, it doesn't depend on shuffling words around (or stakes, for that matter).

and Mike = Jack Haas

And I think you should change your surname to 'Janus'. 

[Mr J]

You two are like me and Herb.  All I ask is no foul language.  Ken

[Hugh Demann]

Winning depends on whether you have an advantage or not, it doesn't depend on shuffling words around (or stakes, for that matter).

Says who. . ? Says YOU. . !

I place 1 Unit on # 33

# 33 comes up

I win. .

Where was my 'advantage' ?

[Mike]

I never said you can't win for a while. Anyone can get lucky. When 33 came up you were paid 35 units + your stake which isn't fair because you should be paid 36 units + stake. Therein lies the problem, simple. It works like compound interest, only for the casino, not the player. That's the reason why the more spins you play, the more you lose. If you put 10 grand in the bank at 5% interest by the end of the year you'd expect to have made 500. Similarly if you put 10 grand into the casino they expect to make their interest. No-one can escape this undeniable fact. Betting on patterns, waiting for the right 'opportunity', or shuffling stakes doesn't change any of this one iota. Sorry, but there it is. Get over it and find an opportunity where you can change the odds in your favour.

[Hugh Demann]

Get over it and find an opportunity where you can change the odds in your favour.

Listening to you is like watching a one-armed man trying to climb a rope. .

Why 'should' the Casino pay you ANYTHING. . ?

They're under NO contractual obligation.

You need to get a proper job and quit being a Casino freeloader.

[Mike]

Why 'should' the Casino pay you ANYTHING. . ?

Because if they didn't they wouldn't have any customers. 

[Kelly]

Short term is when you because of luck can still have a positive bankroll. So when can`t you have that  anymore ?

In my opinion its when a positive 3 standard deviation swing is not enough to bring you back in the positive because of the huse edge. For the even chances that figure is 50.000 spins. If you happen to have some +670 hits above expectation (+3 SD) in 50,000 spins you will at the same time have encountered 1350 zeros which which swallows your entire profit.  3 standard deviations covers some 99,7% of all cases, 4 SD only covers a fraction more than 3 SD so in my opinion, long term is the above scenario.

[Mike]

Hooray, someone has a brain in this forum!

I was going to say that the 'short term' depends on how many numbers you're playing. If covering 30 numbers the short term is less than if you were playing only 1, but putting it in terms of standard deviation is better because it takes care of the variance issues.

[Hugh Demann]

Short term is when you because of luck can still have a positive bankroll.

Kelly, you appear to be an man of intellect..

So, I'm going to just pretend you didn't say that, ok?

You can't talk about 'standard deviation' one second, and 'luck' the next..

That's a contradiction in terms..  surely..?

Luck is an unknown / unpredictable phenomenon that causes an event to go one way rather than another,

Standard deviation is a known / predictable MATHEMATICAL formula..

You can't kid a kidder, my friend..

[Hugh Demann]

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