QUESTION: Knowing why a method works?

[Mr J]

This is a subject that always interests me. If you play a method that works 'well', do you really need to know why? What if your math is not the best (like myself)? What if you do not hold any math degrees? In my opinion, I feel that LOTS of testing/playing is just as good (or better) than a degree. Too many players are afraid of the 2.7% or 5.26%, big deal I say.

Yes, you have to be CREATIVE as hell but for Gods sake, 5.26 is NOT that damn bad (in my opinion). I use a couple methods that have brought me VERY NICE profits but if you ask me WHY it works, I couldn't tell ya. Just because an author of a method can not FULLY explain the 'whys' or the 'hows', does not exactly mean the method does not work. Another point is....'the long run'.

What the heck does that even mean? So if a method is doing 'well' over 40K spins but tanks near the 7 billion spin mark......"the method failed, it sucks!" WTF?   So many testing DEFINITIONS are so TIGHT in roulette, a person would NEVER be happy with any attempt at winning. That's my blog/rant for the day.

Ken

[bombus]

Whether you're aware of it or not, all systems work within the math of the game, there is no escaping that fact.

Conversely all systems fail within the math of the game.

They live and die by the same sword.

All you can do to survive is duck and parry, duck and parry... I believe this is what Gizmo advocates.

[Mr J]

I did a great thread on this a while back. Why is it that a 20 year roulette guy IN GENERAL (not always) does better than a first year roulette guy? Its only a coincidence? Come on, there has to be a REASON. The 2.7/5.26 is SUPPOSE to affect everyone the same, so I hear.

Ken

[cheese]

If you play a method that works 'well', do you really need to know why? Ken

No, but it helps. Don't be surprised when it quits working, if you never knew why it worked anyway. I won't play something if I don't know why it works. If you're using a progression, all it takes is a few really bad back to back sessions to screw you royally.

[Mike]

If you find out why it can't work you will then focus on methods which can. That rules out all methods based on math, because the math says none of them can win. All calculations lead to -2.7%.

The game is designed so that no system will work, and that includes "guessing" 

Go physics! 

[Mr J]

Thanks Mike, I respect your opinion.

Ken   

[gizmotron]

The game is designed so that no system will work, and that includes "guessing" 

Go physics! 

How the heck would you know that? You are a self proclaimed quitter. You told us all that you gave up on trends and patterns. That then qualifies you for what? You are a person that never figured out a method to make it work. Your sarcastic smirk should be more redirected to your own reflexion in the mirror. "Happy time."

[Mr J]

He said that Gizmo only to bait 'us' into getting upset. Thats why I said 'opinion', because thats all it really is. My play as of late has been spot on and I'm feelin damn good these days....playing methods!! I love it.   


Ken

[kav]

It seems strange to me to have hit gold just by luck. If you have no idea why a method works this means you just tried it out by luck.
To put it in another way, I'd ask the guy: why did you try this method in the first place?

[pins]

how could you know a method worked. a different set of numbers spun and it would not work.

[MiniBaccarat]

G'day,

It doesn't matter what combination or numbers or hands or whatever, happens,
the BTH always has to win, it's based on Maths,
it's known before a session that it will win,
it's just a matter of how much,
which is based on how long you play & how lucky on that particular day you were!

Glenn.

[Ka2]

BTH?

[Mike]

how could you know a method worked. a different set of numbers spun and it would not work.

Exactly. Mr J, your assumption that a guy who's been playing for 20 years does better than a newbie is not based on any fact, just your opinion. However, let's suppose it's true, there are other reasons which can account for it. You will lose less just by staking less, that's just common sense. Why does the casino make more profit than the house edge on a game would suggest? they SHOULD make 2.7 on roulette but they make much more because people plough any winnings back until their bank is gone.

How the heck would you know that? You are a self proclaimed quitter. You told us all that you gave up on trends and patterns.

Yep, I gave up because I saw it was a dead-end. I guess some people learn faster than others.

So what was that reason again why betting trends makes you a winner? 

[Mr J]

Whats your method of play Mike?

Ken

[Mike]

Ken, I search for biased wheels. The "bible" for bias players is Herb's excellent book.

I'm also looking at Visual Ballistic techniques, but I wouldn't claim to be a competent VBer yet.

[Mike]

-