Gambler's Fallacy vs Even Distribution

[gizmotron]

You admit that the figure formations are meaningless, so how can you use them to get a better than expected hit rate? it makes no sense.  

It makes sense to my students and me. I've been thinking that I would enjoy one new student per month. I might even prove I can win in 100 spins. So you guys won't have that excuse and all that. As long as I don't explain my bet selections then that might work. I know it's human nature to attempt to be given years of experience for free. You know, the internet and all that. So you must also know that I have every right to charge for an education from me.

[xman1970]

So you must also know that I have every right to charge for an education from me.

LMFAO..............

Sorry for the delay in replying to your v v v interesting posts Gizmo, I've been playin n winning the last few days  In fact i think i should be able to "shut down" roulette forever v shortly.......

Oh, wait where have I heard that before 

[MauiSunset]

I still encourage all you folks with winning systems to demonstrate your system live, right here.

So far John Gold is the only person who has taken me up on my challenge.

Use the Chat room above (Live chat room) and a live TV Roulette wheel, I like nolinks://nolinks.smartlivecasino.com/live-roulette.html#

It's no big deal to show us your track record in real time.  Just let us know when you want to prove you have a winning system and we will be there.

Until then it's just a lot of boasting about something we can't verify - boring........

[Mike]

I know it's human nature to attempt to be given years of experience for free. You know, the internet and all that. So you must also know that I have every right to charge for an education from me.

Oh you're an education all right. 

Pretty funny how you take every opportunity to plug your services. The sad thing is that only the most weak-minded of dunderheads will fall for your scam, and they're the ones who can probably least afford it. 

[Mike]

I still encourage all you folks with winning systems to demonstrate your system live, right here.

Funny isn't it, how the ones with something to sell will never give a demonstration, even though doing it would give them a lot more potential customers. 

[MauiSunset]

I don't have anything to share with folks about Roulette - I have nothing to prove.

Quite frankly I view Roulette as just a break from my night of playing Blackjack.

I'd love to use Roulette as something but a comic relief and that's why I haunt many of these Roulette sites.  I've already found a great little technique from another website that I'm experimenting with - don't know if it will lead anywhere.

I've gotten a different slant on Roulette with the help of John Gold - thanks John.

I just don't understand folks who boast about having something that works yet don't want to demonstrate it - why boast in the first place?  I try to help folks, in many forums, with things that I know and have experience with, sadly Roulette isn't something I can help other folks with.

I can share my views of gambling and years of watching folks get destroyed at various tables - I don't want to see anyone go through that.

If you have a winning system/technique and want to share it with us that's something to feel proud of.  If, however, you claim to have a winning system/technique and refuse to share it - why on earth brag about it?  The only conclusion I can come up with is that you want money to share it; you want to sell it - that's ok with me too.

So why not just advertise, on this website - they take ads, and stop boasting and start selling........I just don't get it.....

[pins]

the system i play can not be put on paper. i back single numbers.  one dollar roulette.  if i am backing number 4. the bet is 2.one unit.4two units. 19.20.21. one unit 15 one unit.  sometimes i get a hunch for a number.  so i cannot write down the system. i still think the only way to win at roulette is backing single numbers.  sometimes i have 30 bets without a winner. the next spin i am in front.

[col1879]

************ All sequences of the same length have the same probability.*********************

Yes, but sequences of a different length have a different length probability. Think about it, get off a losing trend early and stay on a winning one.

***************The mistake is in thinking that they apply to short term sequences. There is NO "balancing" effect you can rely on*********************

You don't need a balancing effect if you get off early and accept a small loss (eg -1)

**************************So can twenty-two  blacks in a row happen?***************************

Yes, 40+ can happen (and has) Theoretically an infinity of blacks in a row can happen but HUMAN BEINGS don't play for infinity! Each individual gets their own life time sequence of spins. Accept small winnings and know when to accept small losses.

************************Flip a coin and make Heads = +1 and Tails = -1 and plot the running total.  The resulting chart will look EXACTLY like a stock chart - if you leave off the labels of the X and Y axis there is NO way to tell a stock chart from a random flip of a coin chart.******************************

Then important factor is not how many end up Heads and how many end up Tails. The important factor is whether you bet on Head or Tails for each of the Bets and how much you staked each time.

********************It makes sense to my students and me.*****************

It should be 'to my students and I', not 'me'

You should take MS on as a student. Only problem is he wont pay for the privilege lol I wont pay either, but I don't have to, I am already above the level of your 'phantom' students lol I bumped in to one of them at the same casino MauiSunset was at. Your student was being sick in the toilet! lol (only joking  )

[birdhands]

I hope you can forgive this, but I've got a hangup about this particular grammatical point:

He's right in saying "to my students and me" because me is a direct object pronoun.  We would use the subject pronoun (I) when saying "My students and I think it makes sense."  Whenever in doubt just remove the other person or group, so "It makes sense to me" therefore "It makes sense to my students and (to) me."  We would never say "it makes sense to I." 

Again, I know this is a soapbox thing for me, but hey, it's a forum.

Sam

[col1879]

I hope you can forgive this, but I've got a hangup about this particular grammatical point:

He's right in saying "to my students and me" because me is a direct object pronoun.  We would use the subject pronoun (I) when saying "My students and I think it makes sense."  Whenever in doubt just remove the other person or group, so "It makes sense to me" therefore "It makes sense to my students and (to) me."  We would never say "it makes sense to I." 

Again, I know this is a soapbox thing for me, but hey, it's a forum.

Sam

I was just trying to have a joke with Giz, wasn't being serious. But yes you're right, grammar is not my strong suiit. I have been exposed as an idiot lol Stay on your soap box, I like it! It helps improve my own grammar lol

[gizmotron]

********************It makes sense to my students and me.*****************

It should be 'to my students and I', not 'me'

And furthermore, that makes sense to my students and to me too. You are wrong. That makes perfect sense, since it makes sense to blab your two cents.

[birdhands]

Please be nice.  And if you can't be nice, please don't use my posts to be mean.

[MauiSunset]

How can we conclusively prove/disprove patterns in random numbers?

This seems to be the solution to all this - a simple test that doesn't have to be part of a gambling system/technique.

Since I don't believe there are patterns to random numbers I can't help here - but those of you who do should be able to provide some evidence - something.

And if you can't how do we debate this topic?

Here's a test that I've thought of:

• Take 1,000 past spins of a Roulette wheel


• Take 1,000 DJIA spins that come from taking the DJIA's close * 100 and dividing by 37 with the remainder being a number between 0 and 36

Now one stream should be able to forecast the next 100 spins and one would not.

You can't take one stream of random numbers, form something totally unrelated, and use it to drive a gambling system - that would mean that any set of random numbers will correctly forecast future Roulette spins.

This of course can't be true.

Correct?

[gizmotron]

You should take MS on as a student. Only problem is he wont pay for the privilege lol I wont pay either, but I don't have to, I am already above the level of your 'phantom' students lol 

So prove it. I'm going to prove it latter in March. But you can now. Just dazzle us all with your brilliance. What is the most important thing to know what to do if you use trends when playing Roulette?

[gizmotron]

Now one stream should be able to forecast the next 100 spins and one would not.

You can't take one stream of random numbers and use it to drive a gambling system - that would mean that any set of random numbers will correctly forecast future Roulette spins.

This of course can't be true.

Correct?

Typical assumption. You think it's all about forecasting, "forecast future Roulette spins." Wrong again. Please get this message. You're wrong again. GOT IT YET?

[gizmotron]

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