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Even money bets.
March 15, 2011, 04:32:57 AM
Here I will write about even money bets.
All my knowledge is based upon Marigny de Grillue's work.

We will speak about the even money distribution as different formations of waves that occur.
We will not deal with patterns.
We will speak about different states - waves.

Values.

Singels has the value of 1
Series has the value of 1

Three states - observation.

So if series chop they grow in strength +1+2+3 and short, medium or large imbalance occur.
Same is as the opposite appears that singels start to chop and they grow in strength +1+2+3+4 and short, medium or large imbalance occur.
If series and singels start to alternating once each then the values will hovering around zero and there is no present imbalance.

Nice comparison.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bollinger_Bands

Math and calculation:

First I will illustrate this with a simple example.
If you have 14 series "events" and 2 singels "events" present as a sequence then you calculate as follows:

First you have to get the Absolute Std when you calculate.
Then you take 14 - 2 = 12

Now we want to get the statistical std so we continue with...
14 + 2 = 16

Now we take the sqr of 16 = 4

And finally we divide the Absolute Std  whit the sqr

12 sqr 4 = 3,00

The Statistical STD 3,00

Here below is a chart for illustration ...

Dummy chart:



Probability:

When we observe series and singels they come in different combinations - but if we start to observe them as different states of the distribution, waves - then our observations change as we can continues see how small, medium and large states of imbalance occur and also notice how periodic states of correction appears also how does states have steady periodic flow towards a certain degree.

Tendency:

It indicate that we only place bets when there already exist a significant change present - as we don't chase to capture events that is not present or just follow the flow with out any indication towards present change - as it at least avoid us from falling into a trap as nothing is due to happen or grow towards any extant.
There exist different techniques - some one argue first try to capture small change once and if a loss then wait for present change - this is what a march is about - how and when to place a bet to capture more out of already present change.

Definition of correction:

When we receive one of the two states as a opposite result of our previous state we have a clear indication there is a present change by observation - depending on our "bench mark" of our previous state we will determine if we would attack or not.
The correction correlates with two opposite states as opposite towards our previous state and are by definition part of correction to a certain degree.

March

One thing I like is when and why some one would place hes first bet to capture a tendency towards a small, medium or large correction.
There exist different ways you can use as tendency play.
Its like having a certain algorithm to capture small, medium or large states that calibrate and correlate as opposite effect of previous state.

States/Waves.

Some states are underrepresented to a higher extand then others - with also by it self is a bench mark when some one chose to play this kind of game.
We will deal with that later during this topic.

Variations of states ...

When we observe the distribution of series and singels they come in all kind of combinations.
The goal is to find a state/sequence that is as clear as possible with underrepresented formations.

If we take at least a series of two singels and one singel series present and one more series of two singels as minimum towards a qualified state - then the STD is around 1.00 as a tiny state/wave.
Then the singels has no other formation present and are a direct opposite effect towards series to chop - we have imbalance towards one direction.
The singel present series among does singels is also singel with out any tendency to any other formation.

We know what will happen in the future - but we don't know when it will happen in the future - so our best option is to continue to observe.
The minimum state has a value around 0.81 to 1.00 STD but can come as a stronger state depending one how many singels are present and how many singel series we have present - so we can let the state grow to any extant as nothing is due to happen.

After observing a state like I mention above - some one would observe and use a march to capture change when its present with or with out "hedge bet" as one attempt to capture a quick downswing.
As we deal with small variations/states the ride can be bumpy - using this example.

One other bench mark is to use 6 or 7 straight singels as a clear state - then you know if another straight 6 or 7 hit again you reach a 2.5 or 3.0 std with is a very strong imbalance and the way towards that you will receive many states that will calibrate and never hit to that extant - it is also done with just a few bets after a present change.

There exist many other variations - some more easy to observe and play then others.
One example of a complex state is when the distribution is hovering at zero point - then we know that the alternating series and singels that comes once each will grow towards one of the two opposite directions to a degree of at least formation of two and higher.
What has mention above apply to any state - like series of series and so on ...

The infinity law.

As every trail is independent with no limits of freedom - we can start measuring from any trail or position we like - that means that you can pick any window with any bench mark / std at any place during the distribution.
From this position you would observe for small, medium or large swings that you know will become a part of your present state and the other states will become the future (nothing is due but it does not effect us when we only observe )  then you have your march witch will be the "key to the solution" to capture events after they are present or with combination of a hedge bet.
The down side with this method is all states that will go back to back to certain degree - even if we know the other states will become present with out chasing them when we rater try to ride them out as present events ...
Tendency.
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