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birdhands

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The Spitting Mongoose
March 27, 2011, 10:23:58 PM
I like the mongoose progression so much that I've engineered a system around it.  This system is intended for play on the BetVoyager no zero RNG.  For those of you who distrust or dislike RNG, sorry, but if you read the BV randomness control section you might just change your minds.  Anyhow, we are betting 12 sleepers and 6 of the hottest repeats for a total of 18 units, an even money bet.  I would track until at least 55 spins with 12 numbers still sleeping, the more the better.  Approach the betting like a flat bet and apply the mongoose after a win, like so:
1st bet 18 units
2nd bet parlay 36 units
3rd bet 2-step marty, so 18 and if lose, then 36
4th bet 3-step tweaked marty, so 18 and if lose 18 again, if win the second restart on the 1st 18, if lose 1st and 2nd 18, then bet 54.

So we risk 1 unit(18) to win 5(90).  If we lose on the 1st, 2nd, or 4th bets we lose 1 18 unit bet; if we lose on the 3rd bet we break even.  We need to win the 1st 2 bets to be in business, after that we can lose 1 of the 2 3rd bets.  We need to lose 3 in a row to lose the 4th bet.
We need to win 4 out of 7 bets to be +5, whereas we would only be +1 flat betting.

A little more explanation in case it's not clear:
If we win the 3rd bet we move to the 4th.  If we lose then we double up (marty) and try again.  If we win then move to the 4th; if lose back to start.
If we win the 4th bet we are finished (+5).  If we lose we bet 18 again.  If win go back to the previous 18 bet.  Basically we need to lose 2x in a row to bet 54.  Hope this makes sense.

So the idea is that we are using a bad-ass positive progression to win on an EC bet, only it's a supercharged EC bet because it uses sleepers and hot numbers.  A little candy for GF fans and haters alike.  I'll be testing this when I can; feel free to post questions or comments.  If you despise RNG that's fine, but you don't need to tell me about it.

birdhands

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Re: The Spitting Mongoose
March 30, 2011, 12:12:50 PM
Jeez guys, I thought there might be a tiny bit of interest.  After all, we don't see many positive progressions on the forum.  This can probably be played on a European wheel too.

birdhands

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Re: The Spitting Mongoose
March 30, 2011, 12:13:50 PM
If anyone needs more explanation, just ask.

kenio

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Re: The Spitting Mongoose
March 30, 2011, 12:55:05 PM
I will give it a try and see how it works.  Thx for sharing your idea.  :-\

birdhands

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Re: The Spitting Mongoose
March 30, 2011, 01:11:12 PM
The bet selection can change, as long as it's an EC.  Let's focus on the progression:

(Please correct my math if necessary; but I think it's right)
25% chance of winning first 2 steps- +3, 75% chance of -1
75% chance of winning 3rd step- +4, 25% chance of BE
84% chance of winning 4th step- +5, 16% chance of -1

that looks like an edge to me.

Sam

birdhands

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Re: The Spitting Mongoose
March 30, 2011, 01:37:10 PM
Maybe not.  .25x.75x.84=.16
So that's a 16% chance of ending up +5; that's 1 out of 6, which would break even, except a loss on the 3rd step also breaks even.
Maybe an edge?

Ok, I've got 78% chance of -1
6% chance of BE
16% chance of +5

kenio

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Re: The Spitting Mongoose
March 30, 2011, 01:39:49 PM
Sam you will get 12 sleepers around 40 spin.  You said that we need to wait at least until 55 spins.
Can you post an example.  Thx

birdhands

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Re: The Spitting Mongoose
March 30, 2011, 02:07:11 PM
No time to post an example right now.  I was just suggesting that waiting for more spins with 12 sleepers might give an advantage.  The average should be 24 sleepers hit + 12 repeats= 36 spins.  So if we wait for a time when there are an unusual number of repeats, then we might have a better chance of our sleepers hitting earlier when we bet them.  When you track just keep removing the hit numbers from the earlier spins and keep spinning until there is a larger sample w/12 sleepers.

As far as the bet selection goes, we can just bet the 18 numbers that have hit the least if we have a lot of repeats (more than 36 numbers) and bet on what's already hit if we have few repeats (fewer than 36 numbers); I haven't really worked this part out yet.

birdhands

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Re: The Spitting Mongoose
March 31, 2011, 10:37:07 AM
Sorry everybody.  As it turns out the mongoose has 50/50 odds afterall.  So much for hope.

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