What Does Reading Random Mean

[gizmotron]

Now all my ideas are stuff.

Show me where I have been talking down at your ideas for the past year. It's your arguing and your ego that I disagree with. I still think you can win at this game of Roulette.

[gizmotron]

You can tap dance all you like and try to rewrite history. Everybody knows what the truth is.

6 bets and -$360. You'll never live that down.

Context, that's what blinders do for you. You can't see that is was a very rare occurrence. But you are so enlightened with conditional probability that you can't see how rare it was. Funny how you glob on to words that sound smart. Too bad you can't actually use the concept in a sentence. Yes, everyone knows the truth. I set you up and you dug a giant hole with it. And you keep on digging too. I wonder if conditional probability applies to making an ass of yourself? You are banging down the doors of that hit rate. I'd bet on you to squish your soap box any time soon.

[cheese]

Show me where I have been talking down at your ideas for the past year.

You don't get it! You haven't beaten roulette. You rip people off by taking their money and teaching them nothing. I don't want to be connected to you in any way. I'm sick and tired of seeing my name linked to yours. I'm tired of you giving me credit for your losing methods. Its as simple as that.

[cheese]

You can't see that is was a very rare occurrence.

OK, do the demo again. Show us it was a rare occurrence. How hard is that?

[gizmotron]

You don't get it! You haven't beaten roulette. You rip people off by taking their money and teaching them nothing. I don't want to be connected to you in any way. I'm sick and tired of seeing my name linked to yours. I'm tired of you giving me credit for your losing methods. Its as simple as that.

That's simple enough. I'll tell everyone that you eat shit. That your baloney ideas are based on plagiarism. That you want to live in anonymity while posting in every thread where your Father Roulette routine can gain notoriety. They will see right away that your 72% hit rate has always been that secret Holy Grail. And I'll remind them that you never share what you do on any forum, ever. Yep, that's an easy one KOOK.

[gizmotron]

OK, do the demo again. Show us it was a rare occurrence. How hard is that?

What, no conditional probability math? Certainly you can prove to us all that you know the odds? I think you can't. So let's see that proof. What are the odds? It was a three step progression, 1, 4, 13, on each dozen. It had a 33 to 1 chance that it would fail the first time it was tried in that 100 spin test. What are the odds for it to lose on that first trial? You don't know conditional probability. You just pretend to use it to impress people. It's really good stuff too Father Roulette.

[cheese]

That's simple enough. I'll tell everyone that you eat shit. That your baloney ideas are based on plagiarism.

Thats fine.  What I don't want is to be connected to a scammer ripping people off, like you're doing. Or the crackpot vapor-box you aren't making. Or anything to do with you.

[gizmotron]

Thats fine.  What I don't want is to be connected to a scammer ripping people off, like you're doing. Or the crackpot vapor-box you aren't making. Or anything to do with you.

OK then, I got the message. It's time to cut the cheese.

[cheese]

What, no conditional probability math? Certainly you can prove to us all that you know the odds? I think you can't.

In other words, you won't do it again because you realize it doesn't work. No surprise there..

[cheese]

OK then, I got the message.

I doubt it.

[Frame it]

If I see something written in German, it means nothing to me.  Its useless information because I don't have the key to reading it.  When somebody explains to me what the symbols mean and how they're organized into words, I can start to make sense of it.  Random outcomes are similar, but you can only make a vague sense out of them, not an exact sense, like you can with a foreign language.  Its all about organization.  It about how good you are at organizing the random events into something you can use.  It about taking one thing and making it into something else.  Like BJ, you take the outcomes and turn them into a counting game to give yourself the advantage.  There's a way to organize the random events in roulette to give yourself an edge.  Lets see if any sock puppets pop up and say "Oh yeah, thats how its done, thats how I always do it. " To which my answer will be "No you don't. "

I agree it's a good way to play making a "vague sense" out of random outcomes rather than anything super specific.   It's how I play and it's how I regularly win.   With practice it becomes very easy to visualize what is coming next.   Not what is coming the next spin specifically, but what may be coming in the next 2-4 spins based on what has been happening.   When there is a change, I get off it and either change with it or look for another even chance that is trending well.

I don't make my style of play as complicated as you seem to do such as "taking one thing and making it into something else" or organize the random events in roulette to give yourself the edge. "  I simply have mastered reading what is currently happening and playing for it to continue in a very general vague way.   I do this by watching the marquee.   Red and black is the easiest to see, but after months of practice I can easily do the same with O/E and H/L.

I always reach my win of 10 units and leave.   My biggest drawdowns are usually -4, sometimes as high as -5 but I always recover and when I do recover it happens quite rapidly.   I can sometimes reach 10 units in 10 spins, other times as long as 100 spins, it all depends.   With regular practice it's actually quite easy.   I have been playing for 9 months like this and have substantially built up my bankroll.   I am now playing with $500 chips.

[cheese]

 With practice it becomes very easy to visualize what is coming next.   Not what is coming the next spin specifically, but what may be coming in the next 2-4 spins based on what has been happening.   

You can tell whats coming in the next 2-4 spins? And you bet $500 chips? Is that the story you're sticking with?

[Frame it]

You can tell whats coming in the next 2-4 spins? And you bet $500 chips? Is that the story you're sticking with?

Yes.   That is what I said.   It is not a story, it is real life, it is what I do.

[cheese]

Yes.   That is what I said.   It is not a story, it is real life, it is what I do.

Whatever you say..

[Kelly]

 

Nice try Kelly but that was not an argument of why I can't use "Calculating conditional probabilities." That was just an attack against my claims. You are still on track to enter your float in the fools parade. Keep up the good attitude

Well since there are no way you can use either normal,conditional or "bayesian" probability as an indicator, you would have to show how you do that.

Why you can`t ? Because the wheel has no memory.  Depending on the lenght/amount of spins that has just occured and goes into the calculation, you can calculate a probability value for the next outcome.  So what ? If we have 4 or 5 reds in a row, the probability for another red gets smaller and smaller each time you add another spin. You know what happens if I run a test on real Hamburg or Wiesbaden spins, that says "bet black after 4 reds" ?

It comes out with a loss of - 1.35% of the wagered amount, same shit happens if I bet red after 4 or 5 blacks.

Its just an example, but it shows clearly that no matter what kind of "acumulated" probability you get to after x amount of spins, it does not affect the real probability that applys to 1 spin only. 50/50 minus the house edge or 1/37 with a payout of 35 etc etc.

So, now its your turn. How do you apply conditional probability to create an edge over the house ?

[Kelly]

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