Dear Math Nazis

[gizmotron]

You math oriented fundamentalists have been right all along. Each spin is an independent event. The odds never change. Past spins can't predict future events. Snowman should be vindicated, once and for all time.

I've said all along that its not about prediction. But now I'm admitting that I was wrong. It is about prediction.

Something that I've never said before in all these years, and this is it. Sometimes past spins act like they are predicting future events. It's just an act. It's not really doing it. But that does not mean that you can't use a mirage that's working, even if it's not real.

I believe that anyone, given the practice and experience, can use anything that works, even if what works is a method that is only temporary and imaginary. Some people might find it difficult to develop the ability to tell the difference between working and not working.

So the math oriented people have been right all along. There's one big problem with that though. They have mostly failed to consider that at times they have let huge opportunities pass right under their noses without ever seeing them. They are more concerned about being right than being winners.

[Mike]

So what made you change your mind?

[gizmotron]

So what made you change your mind?

I found a better and simpler way to make my point. Saying the trends are working now. Or saying the trends are not working now. And what I'm really saying is that it has nothing to do with math or odds. The real math or odds are completely irrelevant.

[VKM]

Patterns and Rain...

Joe and Tom were walking down the street on a very cloudy day.  It started to rain.  As Joe started
to open his umbrella, Tom who was noticeably irritated by Joe's actions, asked, "What are you doing?"

Joe, a little confused, replied "It's raining...so I'm opening my umbrella." 

"Why would you do that?", asked Tom.

"Because it's raining...", said Joe, not quite sure what Tom was getting at.

"Yeah, you're right, it's raining.", said Tom... "But you don't know how long it will rain... It could
stop raining any minute"... "So why open your umbrella now?", asked Tom, wondering how Joe could be so stupid.

"Well", said Joe, not sure if his explanation would be acceptable to Tom, "the conditions seemed favorable for me to use my umbrella and even though I realize that it might stop raining at any minute, I thought it was worth the chance.... Would you like to share it?"

"Don't be ridiculous.", replied Tom as he turned his collar up.

As they walked along, as chance would have it, it started to rain harder.




What is to be learned from this story?
Joe was a little confused... and Tom was all wet.




VKM

[ll l ll l lll ll]

Excellent analogy!

[Far-Q]

Patterns and Rain...

Joe and Tom were walking down the street on a very cloudy day.  It started to rain.  As Joe started
to open his umbrella, Tom who was noticeably irritated by Joe's actions, asked, "What are you doing?"

Joe, a little confused, replied "It's raining...so I'm opening my umbrella." 

"Why would you do that?", asked Tom.

"Because it's raining...", said Joe, not quite sure what Tom was getting at.

"Yeah, you're right, it's raining.", said Tom... "But you don't know how long it will rain... It could
stop raining any minute"... "So why open your umbrella now?", asked Tom, wondering how Joe could be so stupid.

"Well", said Joe, not sure if his explanation would be acceptable to Tom, "the conditions seemed favorable for me to use my umbrella and even though I realize that it might stop raining at any minute, I thought it was worth the chance.... Would you like to share it?"

"Don't be ridiculous.", replied Tom as he turned his collar up.

As they walked along, as chance would have it, it started to rain harder.




What is to be learned from this story?
Joe was a little confused... and Tom was all wet.




VKM

Like it 

[cheese]

You math oriented fundamentalists have been right all along. Each spin is an independent event. The odds never change. Past spins can't predict future events.

And I've been saying this over and over for how many years? Independent unconnected spins are the reason the game can be beat. The only dependable thing about roulette outcomes are their independence. Thats why RNG's suck, they aren't dependable in the short term. Sure, they look the same in the long term, but a casino won't let you bet on outcomes that are coming next week, they only let you bet on the next spin.

[MiniBaccarat]

G'day,

I believe that anyone, given the practice and experience, can use anything that works, even if what works is a method that is only temporary and imaginary. Some people might find it difficult to develop the ability to tell the difference between working and not working.

This is what Spike / Cheese has basically said he does, play a separate game and transfer those results to the Roulette game. (this was a paraphrase, and if I missed the point PLEASE correct me Steve)!

Glenn.

[Mr J]

In my OPINION.....and no, dont ask me for a math formula please. Each spin all BY ITSELF, I agree for the most part is useless information. A #7 hit, big fu**in deal. Mass numbers over 400,000 spins, what in the hell am I suppose to do with that?

However, we'll say (as an example) the LAST 10-50 numbers, I think is the most important in terms of information that CAN BE (but not guaranteed) valuable information for NEAR future winning bets.

Ken   

[gizmotron]

Let's look at this from an example standpoint. You can have ten different conditions that are descriptive of a continuing trends. Most times these trends pay more than they lose. But there are times when you use them that they lose every time you try them. Is the trend identification bad? The answer is no. The randomness is just not cooperating for winners at these times, that's all. It's part of normal randomness. It's not the mathematical odds correcting things.

The trick is to react to changes. You need to know how to react to information that you are learning about the current conditions. Can you bet the opposite of what's losing? Yes, if that condition is continuing. You can even come up with a method that goes after conditions that are not continuing. If it's not streaking reds or blacks then that is something that you know.

[cheese]

The trick is to react to changes. .

There are no 'changes'. With every spin it starts anew. With every spin you start over. Quit assuming you know where anything is headed. Its random, we don't know shit..

[gizmotron]

There are no 'changes'. With every spin it starts anew. With every spin you start over. Quit assuming you know where anything is headed. Its random, we don't know shit..

More like you don't know jack shit stupid. All you have is your debating repertoire. That is all that you have displayed in the past four years. That is all you can say. You don't know how to read randomness. You just grabbed on to it after I suggested it. I'm the one that has discussed changes with real people. You have discussed and disclosed absolutely nothing. You have contributed nothing. You share nothing.

Here is an example of making you into a dumbshit. If an even chance set of past spins goes from dominating streaks to dominating singles then a change occurs. If using trends for bet selections goes from working very well to working very bad then change occurred. You can't see that. That's because you changed into snowman.

Can you see the change in this Odd / Even chart?


|    X | -- 1
|    X | -- 2
| X    | -- 3
| X    | -- 4
| X    | -- 5
|    X | -- 6
|    X | -- 7
|    X | -- 8
| X    | -- 9
|    X | -- 10
|    X | -- 11
-------| -- 12
|    X | -- 13
| X    | -- 14
| X    | -- 15
|    X | -- 16
|    X | -- 17
| X    | -- 18
| X    | -- 19
|    X | -- 20
|    X | -- 21
|    X | -- 22
| X    | -- 23
|    X | -- 24
| X    | -- 25
|    X | -- 26
| X    | -- 27
|    X | -- 28
|    X | -- 29
| X    | -- 30
|    X | -- 31
| X    | -- 32
|    X | -- 33

[Kelly]

The Guetting strategy uses the change in following series to following chops when they become dominant and back.  It does not work.  The actual bet placing ends up as a 50/50 game no matter which is the dominant. Its the law of the series that spoils it.

[gizmotron]

The Guetting strategy uses the change in following series to following chops when they become dominant and back.  It does not work.  The actual bet placing ends up as a 50/50 game no matter which is the dominant. Its the law of the series that spoils it.

If you have a method that does not work then you have the wrong method. Keep trying. Staying too long on one side of anything is a mistake. Self control is not an easy thing to execute.

[Nathan Detroit]

Kelly,

The Guetting  progression works to a certain degree. However Monsieur Guetting  never gave a hint as to when to leave the table .

He  probaly should have  taken into consideration that  not many  of his progression  go above the  bottom   or for that matter of the topof the  3 rd level.  ( ar RUN of 6 in a row ) and soon finds himself returning  his winnings.

It makes sense on paper but I am still in favor of the  regression system.


Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!


P.S. A RUN of  6 occurs in about   5 %  of the total of spins in contrast to a RUN of  2   which are pegged  at 25 %
.The author of  Monte Carlo comes up with a similar  comparison. From 1000- spins the expectancy is  about 48   for a run of 6 and for a run of 2  252.

In the case  of  252  they represent a combined  total of   two EC like  B & R.

The  percentage  statistics go to  a  post byJohno.

[Nathan Detroit]

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