Trends and streaks

[Nathan Detroit]

******Let's first differentiate between a trend and a streak.A trend is a preponderance of decisions in one direction or the other....streaks may exist within trends...but do not usually constitute the trend itself.*****

The author   of this quote is  a poster by the name of Jack at another message board.


For the  people in Rio Linda  this  is a TREND>>>>>>B-R-B-B-R-B  . This  is  a STREAK B-B-B-B-B-.

Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!

[gizmotron]

For the  people in Rio Linda  this  is a TREND>>>>>>B-R-B-B-R-B  . This  is  a STREAK B-B-B-B-B-.

Rio Linda is not as bad as reported. It was though at one time.

These are all trends: patterns, dominances, singles in series, sleepers, global effects, and most of all chaos, when there are not the typically identifiable characteristics.

[gizmotron]

Here is what Jack said:

Gentlemen,
I am going to save you the trouble of insulting my intelligence and tell you up front that I am brain damaged.....my wife will attest to that....however,I do have something to add to this discussion.

As I told John some years ago, I went kicking and screaming to the charting side of the argument.....unable to otherwise explain what I perceived as an advantage when charting,I set about arriving at a math based reason for using it.

This has been run by two math professors who found the reasoning to be solid....but if you find fault with it by all means dig in.


In short:

Let's first differentiate between a trend and a streak.A trend is a preponderance of decisions in one direction or the other....streaks may exist within trends...but do not usually constitute the trend itself.

What I like to call the density of the trend is also a factor,a trend that has a decision rate at 70% positive to the way you wish to bet is obviously easier to exploit than one that has a win rate of 52%



All trends,positive,negative,or chop will occupy time lines.(occurrence lines would be more accurate)


Random intersections of theses time lines must gravitate toward the center of a standard distribution curve.



This would be an easy argument to make if every time line was exactly 15 minutes....there is no logical reason that should change just because the length of the timelines is variable.

Obviously hitting dead center of a trend that lasts two minutes will not do you a lot of good.....one that lasts two hours is a different story.


One of the Math Professors I had look at this said he agreed with the premise the intersections of the timelines had to gravitate toward the center of a standard distribution curve,but personally doubted using a strategy of only playing the portion of the positive trends intersected would be sufficient to overcome the house edge.

Fair enough....and I will make no such claim....


But it is a solid math based reason for charting....there is no predictive voodoo here.

This was my answer to his post:

Jack, that was very interesting. So you tend to give credence to a time line approach that ends up saying that seeking a predictive reasoning has not been considered. I agree with your conclusion.

So now I will make my point again. There are times when the trends and streaks act just like predictors, even though I know that they are not. I choose to treat them as imaginary predictors. So my charts help me find situations that are either true or false. My focus is not on duration of streaks or trends. I do take notice of all global effects that apply to these conditions though. They tell a greater true or false state of the imaginary propensity of a predictability. When that happens I can use visible information that tells me about length of time line information. The combination of predictability and duration is an almost perfect win streak type of situation.

This topic is covered under inexperience as in confirmation bias, "Gamblers Fallacy" and Clustering Analysis. The later has not been researched or validated in the game of Roulette, Craps, or Blackjack. But there is a field of mathematics that could be analyzed and perfected. Funny how the mathizoids haven't picked up on that blind spot. I think they are invested in fitting in with a status quo.

[Nathan Detroit]

You mean   Rio Linda has improved ? No more cars on cinder bocks ??

Gizmo , I am glad  you have posted the eintire  version of what Jack has said.
N.D.

[gizmotron]

You mean   Rio Linda has improved ? No more cars on cinder bocks ??

I was there in the very early sixties. It was nothing but small farms and a few ranches. They had a small airport. They were so smart that they put an elementary school playground in line with final approach and departure. Before it was finally shut down you had to veer to the right 15 degrees on all takeoffs over the school.

That side of the county has gone through a building boom. It's all chopped up into residential tracts. There are shopping malls and strip malls everywhere. It's now fast food and golf courses. But it's all scrunched in with the last farms still standing. So yes, you can still find a few cars on blocks. That town had its face slapped internationally. At first they didn't give a damn. But now they have good times and California styled desperation taxes. In a way, all of California is headed for cars on blocks.

[Nathan Detroit]

Gizmo,


Thanks  for  your insight . It has  become a matter pf speech  acquired  from one of my favorite talk show hosts.
I believe that the intelligence level   there has improved in proportion?

N.D.

[gizmotron]

Here's some Chinese insight:

This year, July has 5 Fridays, 5 Sat**days and 5 Sundays. This happens once every 823 years.

1/1/11, 1/11/11, 11/1/11, 11/11/11 -- interesting dates.

Take the last two digits of the year in which you were born - now add
the age you will be this year.  The results will be 111 for everyone in
whole world.

This is the year of the Money! The proverb goes that if you send this to eight good friends money will
appear in the next four days as it is explained in Chinese Feng Shui.

[gizmotron]

Oh cool. I just discovered a game within the game. I think it changes the odds too. I can prove that the odds change while conditions change based on randomness. You can play every spin too. This is cool.

I won't be sharing this here on the forum or in PMs here either. But my students can contact me about it in the usual way that we have communicated. I'll be running tests to see if it actually works as good as I think it will. It's an incredible flat betting method. I wonder why I never put this together before? One day, boom, I share a Chinese proverb... and then boom.

[cheese]

I won't be sharing this here on the forum or in PMs here either.

Thank you?

[cheese]

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