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single events using bollinger bands observations for even money bets

Started by I have cookies, May 18, 2011, 09:10:43 AM

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

I have cookies

Assume there only exist three direction that the even money distribution can take, so the probability is 1/3.
Then we can observe this three formations or waves very easy.

First formations is when series of series chop - at least twice and above - is the first wave or formation.
We can call it dozen one.

RRRBB or BBBRRBBRRRRRBBBRRR

If we observe only series they will come as single events or series of series using the same principals following the average of the law of series.
It will be more single events of series then there will be two series in a row and there will be more series of two in a row then three series in a row.

Second wave is the opposite when singles events alternating - at least two - so series of singles event alternating can come as one singles event or as a serie of two or three and so on.
That is dozen two.

RBR or RBRBR

Last one is when we get no series at all and one singel event of series and one singel event as singel appears - alternating.
Then there is no formation of series in none of the direction I mention above - the singel events of the two opposite direction is alternating or hovering with out creating any formations of series.
That is dozen three.

RRR B RRR B RRR B RRRR or BBB R BB R BBBBB R BBB

Here can you read about bollinger bands:
nolinks://nolinks.bollingerbands.com/

Just to illustrate this with a simple example we could play against series of three or a dozen to appear three time or more during our observations, so we place our bets after every serie appears once and try to capture as a singel event or that we will get one of the two other states to appear.

I test this for around 1024 trails as fluctuation is due to show during that sample to certain degree.

300 TRAILS

LL
WWWWLL
WWWWWWWWWLWWLL
WWWLL
LWWLWLWWLL
LWWLWLWWWWWLL
WLWWLW

300 TRAILS

WLWLWWLWWLL
WWLWLWWWWLWWWLWLL
WLWWLL
WLWWLL
WLL
WLL
WWLWLWWWLWWWWWLW

300 TRAILS

WLWWWLWWLWWWWLWLWLL
WWWLWWWWLWLL
WWWWLWWWLL
WLWLL
WLWLL
LL
LWLL
WW

300 TRAILS

LWLWLWLL
WWWLWLWLL
WWLL
LWWLL
WWLL
WWWWWLL
WWWLWWLL
LL
LWWWLWWWLL

Note.
If some one is into trending i would look into the distribution and make observation i mention above.




schoenpoetser

A random series has the same chance as a special series.Wager on special series you have to wait sometimes a long time for a trigger.My SSB principle give the same chances without waiting periods.After every hit you have a new opportunity.

I have cookies

Quote from: schoenpoetser on May 18, 2011, 01:43:39 PM
A random series has the same chance as a special series.Wager on special series you have to wait sometimes a long time for a trigger.My SSB principle give the same chances without waiting periods.After every hit you have a new opportunity.

Well i don't get your point of view - this is a very high hit ratio and feel free to show how any other selection make shorter loses with same hit ratio - i can just see words and nothing behind them.

This is just for does that would use three states of the distribution and not red and black - that is my point of view.

I have cookies


The difference using bollinger bands or three states is that you capture or ride two horses in the same time as the distribution creates as many singel series as one isolated event as singels by them self.
Using three reds or three blacks you just have one horse to ride.

I assume that is why the fluctuation is so low and the strike ratio so high.

I have cookies


Todays file with bad swings of hits.
20110518 random org.

WWWWLL
LL
LL
WLWLWLL
LWLL
WLWWLL
LWLWWLL
WLWLL
WWLL
LL
WLWWLWWWLW

shetty


I have cookies

Quote from: shetty on May 18, 2011, 08:34:56 PM
Interesting.  Can you please explain with an example?


NOTE qlerification

1. Every state is alternating in its own way and end sooner or later with one out of the two oppisite states.
To illustrate this we can take one red and one black zick zack witch will end with two reds or two blacks witch is one state.
But using bollinger bands we have two states as posibilitys that will apper as oppisite effect.
No matter is there is series that chop or singles events that chop or if the state is hovering it will allways remain two states with no show.



Just pick any random sample of read and black.

1. After you see one series of reds or blacks with any length and the oppisite appers like RRRB you play red as it will create one single event.
If a loss you will have two series in a row RRRBB then you wait until the oppisite appers like RRRBBR now you play black.
If a loss you have three series in a row.

But using bollinger bands you will bet that one single serie will apper or that singels will apper so you have 1/3.
Pick a random sample of 300 trails and put a W as in win and a L as in loss for every bet and you will get the same results as above.

If you lose two attempts you wait for the series that chop to end choping as that one single appers to break that trend and after that you bet again after the first serie appers for two more attempts.

Illustration.
20110204 random org.
1 stands for red
2 stands for black

2
1
2
2
1
2 W session 1 start
2
2
1
1 L
1
1
2
1 W
1
1
1
1
2
1 W
1
1
1
1
1
2
1 W
2
2
1
1 L
2
1 W
2
2
2
1
2 W
1
2
1
1
2
2 L
1
2 W
1
2
1
1
2
1 W
1
2
1 W
2
2
1
1 L
1
1
1
2
1 W
2
2
1
1 L
1
1
2
1 W
2
2
1
1 L
1
1
1
1
1
2
2 L session 1 end
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
2 W session 2 start
1
2
2
1
2 W
2
1
2 W
2
1
1 L
2
1 W
2
1
1
2
1 W
2
1
2
2
2
1
2 W
1
2
1
1
2
2 L
2
1
2 W
2
1
1 L
1
2
2 L session 2 end
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
2
1
2 W
1

schoenpoetser

I have used your random row in my SSB martingale program.The result is total betting 1332 units, payout 1395 units, the profit 63 units and the profitpercentages 4,73%.
Every sample of about 150 spins give a profit on average 70 units.
L(ost and W(on)  tells me nothing.I want to know how many units you have bet and won.

pauljwpa

like this system did test it though i hit five losses in a row, not sure just flat betting would be ok for this,
think my progression would be   1-1-2-4-8-16

what you think....?

pauljwpa

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