Elaborate about even money distribution and progressions.

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I am just going to write about different things regarding even money bets.
One thing that i know is that nothing is due to happen and that past results have no effect on future ones.

But still i enjoy and having fun to fool around with patterns.
A long time ago i read a book about playing against red and black using the scary Martingale and this is what i will start to elaborate about.

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Opposite towards Martingale is regression and at all forums there is no bet selections regarding this.
All is some kind of twist of Martingale basics, raise our bets as we have negative expectation.
Well there is no such thing as positive expectation playing even money bets.

So I like to observe the distribution from different angels, the law of series among others as the distribution distribute different states that is pressent, that is fun and I enjoy it.
Now using regression, lower our bets, we have to achieve to gain at least +1 witch overcome the attempts doing so - that is the simple truth behind true flat betting.

To illustrate this using a bet selection with a staking plan that lower the bets after +1, regression, we can take two attempts - witch would give us a betting line like 1 1.
Then when we test this and just write down +1 or -2 for each session and would soon see how the loses overcome +1.
But if we would had +1 overcome -2 then we could use any bet size as 7 units as we would have a positive expectation.
So if we won 7 units we could ride two free bets with out losing as if we lower our two free bets to 3 and 3 units we would allways be +1 no matter if we lose or win the next two bets - that is a true regression.

Then it strike me as I play around with a bet selection that almost break even using regression that we can combine with a negative staking plan.
That will be my next topic.

[bombus]

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Thanks for all your efforts.

One time it would make sense regressing is when you are approaching or getting close to a set win goal and the bigger bet would go beyong the set goal. This way if you win you reach your goal, but if you lose you have less ground to recover.

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Well, it boils down towards that nothing is due to happen as every trail is independent as contrast towards that the law of series following a certain degree of average during a sample of 1024 trails - that is a bench mark that produce the most common events to occur if we keep the law of series in mind - but is not a law is just observations.
Fluctuation comes in various ways or we can use the word imbalance from witch we regard be the average hovering around zero point.

I just fool around with one simple idea that if we clustering the distribution into the principals of 1/3 we get many different options how to divide and observe the distribution with or with out applying the law of series or observe the distribution being in different states.

I will start to chart the 8 patterns as the first step to describe the bet selection.

1. RRR
2. RRB
3. RBB
4. RBR
5. BBB
6. BBR
7. BRR
8. BRB

Now that is a simple way to clustering the even money bets witch give different options for different observations.

To illustrate how there is no difference using the principal of 1/3 then just playing red or black as they come with out clustering the distribution we could take the following example.
If we would place one bet after every pattern of three reds or blacks (RRR or BBB) and (RBR or BRB) we would still have a 50/50 situation and it would be based upon that we would play against a series of 4 would appear or that we would play with the flow and a series of 4 will appear.

Then there is other observation like this one.
If we follow the last pattern of three and bet that at least one outcome will repeat we will have 7 out of 8 patterns that will generate a win and only one pattern that will create a loss of three attempts.
Same is if we pick the last pattern of three and bet that at least one outcome will be opposite, witch also would be 7 out of 8.

Even if we would use the last example it will also produce the law of series where one serie of three that does not create three loses is one singel event. and if a direct opposite or same effect witch would create 3 losses depending with of does two alternative we pick would create a serie of six that is the same or opposite - conclusion one series of six.

Next I will chart this just to illustrate it with visual samples as a step toward to give a complete explanation of this bet selection - this is just a part of it.
I will use random org where 1 and 2 stands for red and black.

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Here is a sample where we bet same as previous three using the principal of 1/3.

1
1
2

2 L
1 W
2

1 L
2 L
2 W

1 W
1
2

2 L
1 W
1

1 L
1 W
1


Here is same sample where we bet opposite as previous three using the principal of 1/3.

1
1
2

2 W
1
2

1 W
2
2

1 L
1 W
2

2 W
1
1

1 W
1
1

Now if we play same and our previous pattern is 122 then 211 would create three loses.
Now if we play opposite and our previous pattern is 122 then 122 would crate three loses.
Same apply to any combination using 8 out of 8 - but as change is constant and present it creates a very high hit ratio.

This is observation 1 and next i will explain the trigger or the bet selection.

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Now the trigger is to play after each win that comes after a losing strike.
The win goal is +1.

As you could read above we can hit 7 out 8 playing with or against the previous three.
The bet selection is a twist of both.

If you have a previous three and the first colour is opposite you play twice on same.
If you have a previous three and the first colour is same you play twice on opposite.

This is the LW-Registry for 300 trails.

WWWLWWLWWLL
WWWWLWWWLL
WLL
LWWWWLWLL
WLL
WLWLWLWLL
LL
WWWLL
WWWLWLWWLWLWWLWWWLL
LWWWLWLL
WWLL
LWWWLL
WLWLL
WWWLL
WLWWWLL

Here below can you see how +1 overcome the amount of attempts (twice) to achieve +1 flat betting.

+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
-2
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1

Next I will write about the staking plan.

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Flat betting using regression, lower our bets after +1.
Staking plan 731

won 105 units
loss 14 units


+11
+11
+1
+11
+1
+1
-14
+11
+11
+8
+8
+8
+1
+11
+11

Todays random file from random org.

1
1
2

2
2 L
2 W

1
1 L
2 W

1
1 L
1 W

2
2 L
2 L

1
1 L
2 W

1
2 W
2

1
1 W
1

2
1 W
2

1
2 L
2 W

1
1 W
2

1
1 L
1 W

1
2 W
2

1
2 L
2 L

1
1 W
2

2
1 W
1

2
2 W
2

1
2 W
1

2
2 W
1

2
2 L
2 W

2
1 W
2

2
2 W
1

1
1 L
2 L

2
2 L
1 L

2
2 L
1 L

1
2 W
1

2
2 W
2

1
1 L
1 L

1
2 W
2

2
1 L
2 W

2
2 W
2

2
1 W
2

2
2 W
2

1
1 L
2 W

2
2 L
1 L

2
1 W
2

1
1 W
1

2
2 L
2 L

1
1 L
1 L

2
1 W
1

2
2 W
2

2
2 L
1 W

2
2 L
2 W

1
1 L
2 W

1
1 L
2 L

2
1 W
2

2
1 L
2 L

1
2 L
1 L

1
1 W
2

2
1 W
2

2
2 W
2

1
2 W
1

1
2 L
1 L

2
2 W
2

2
1 W
1

2
2 W
1

1
2 W
1

2
1 L
1 W

1
2 L
1 W

1
1 W
1

2
2 L
1 W

2
2 L
2 W

1
2 W
1

2
1 L
1 W

2
2 W
1

2
1 W
2

1
2 L
1 L

1
1 W
1

1
1 L
2 W

2
1 W
2

2
2 W
1

2
2 L
2 W

2
2 L
2 L

1
1 L
1 L

2
1 W
2

1
1 W
1

1
2 W
2

2
1 L
1 L

2
1 L
2 W

1
1 L
1 W

1
2 W
1

1
1 W
2

2
2 L
1 L

1
1 L
1 W

1
2 W
2

2
1 L
2 W

1
2 L
1 L

2
1 L
2 L

1
1 W
2

2
1 W
1

2
2 W
2

1
2 W
1

2
1 L
2 L

1
1 W
1

2
1 W
2

2
1 L
1 W

1
1 W
1

1
2 W
1

1
2 L
1 L

2
2 W
2

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The question is when you hit a negative tram, what to do.
I assume some one could play 7/7 14/14 28/28 56/56.

The contrast is during regression how much your net gain will be opposite towards a total loss.

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Bumpy ride 20110523 random org - but still positive.

WWWLL
LWWWLWLWWLWLL
WWWLWWLL
WWWWWLWLWWWLL
WLWLL
WLL
WWWWLWWWWLL
LL
LWLL
WWLWWWWWLWLL
LWWLL
LL
WWWLL
LWLWWLWWLWLWWLW

+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
-2
-2
+1
+1
-2
+1
+1

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Bad drawdowns 20110522 but still positive ...

LWWLL
LL
LL
LL
WLWLL
WLWWLL
WWLL
WLWLWLL
LWLWLL
WWWLWWLL
WWWLWWLWWWLL
WWLWWWWLWLWLL
WWWWWWLWWLL
LL
WLL
WLWLL
LWWWWWWWWLWWLL
WW

+1
-2
-2
-2
+1
+1
+1
+1
-2
+1
+1
+1
+1
-2
+1
+1
+1
+1

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Now back to average again with really good results - today's file 20110525

WLL
LWWLL
LL
LWLWLWWLWWWWWLWLL
WWLWLL
WLWLL
WWLWWLL
LL
LWWWWWLWLL
WLWWLL
WWLWWLWWLL
LWLWLWWWLL
WLL
LL
LWLWLWLWLWWWWLWWWWWWWWWW

+1
+1
-2
+1
+1
+1
+1
-2
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
-2
+1

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Total net gain flat betting / +50 -24 = +26 units
+1 overcomes two attempts flat betting.
1200 trails.

- - - -

300 trails

+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
-2
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1

14 won
2 loss

- - - -

300 trails

+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
-2
-2
+1
+1
-2
+1
+1

11 won
6 loss

- - - -

300 trails

+1
-2
-2
-2
+1
+1
+1
+1
-2
+1
+1
+1
+1
-2
+1
+1
+1
+1

13 won
10 loss

- - - -

300 trails

+1
+1
-2
+1
+1
+1
+1
-2
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
-2
+1

12 won
6 loss

- - - -

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Money Management for does who not want to use regression witch I mention above.

The original comes from a member at GG with the name Gr8player.
This is just one way to have control over the flow.

We reduce our win target depending on how many loses we get during our play.

1. If we start with 10 units then our win goal is 10 units.
2. For every loss that appears we lower our win target of 10 units - recording the amount of loses we get.
3. This is just to keep control over you betting and the bank can be 5/10 or any other value.
4. Any one is free to stop at any time.
5. If target hit 0 you aim to break even or take the loss.

Illustration

W 1 +1 win target 10 units
L 1 +0 win target 9 units
W 1 +1 win target 9 units
W 1 +2 win target 9 units
W 1 +3 win target 9 units
W 1 +4 win target 9 units
W 1 +5 win target 9 units
W 1 +6 win target 9 units
L 1 +5 win target 8 units
L 1 +4 win target 7 units
L 1 +3 win target 6 units
W 1 +4 win target 6 units
L 1 +3 win target 5 units
W 1 +4 win target 5 units
L 1 +3 win target 4 units
L 1 +2 win target 3 units
W 1 +3 win target 3 units stop
L 1 +2
W 1 +3

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Note

Even if a negative tram appears we can end with positive net results using regression or the money management I mention above.
Here can you follwing my test results:

nolinks://vlsroulette.com/testing-zone/plus1/

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