What are the chances of this happening to me of all people?

[Madiba]

I recently had to undergo a small op and had to spend some time in hospital
As us old timers generally do, we tend to strike up conversations with almost anybody, and I mean anybody...

So I start talking to this german guy (does not speak english too well) in the bed next to me and he happens to be a big time gambler, focussing on black jack and card counting etc...

We eventually get to talking about roulette and what his thoughts are and he tells me that his brother-in-law is a full time player and he only bets on the even chances (his brother in law is also retired with a hefty pension package)
He then went on to explain about patterns and streaks of even chances and how he takes advantage of this

Has anybody done any research into this? if you have, it should be well worth another look at
I personally have the time but not the energy to really follow up

As far as I can gather, his brotherin law plays 100 spin sessions on these patterns only
He uses a plus1 on loss progression and stops when in profit to start again (500 unit bankroll)
He plays only one side of the even chance (only red or black etc...)
He has losing sessions when the rbrbrb (alternating results appear)
He makes about 25 units per 100 spins

Anybody know what the % of single, 2time, 3time and 4time series of an even chance are for 100 spins
What is the most rbrbrbrbrbrbrbrb that you have come across in 100 spins - I have seen about 20 consecutive myself
I did a quick 1000 spin test and it showed on average about 11 singles, 7 doubles, 3 triples etc... (for red only for a 100 spins)

As I mentioned previously, 'my holy grail' may be different to anothers but it is definitely interesting to hear about the many profitable variations out there

Hope that this helps somebdody looking into a similar system

[Nathan Detroit]

nolinks://nolinks.archive.org/stream/montecarloanecdo00bethiala#page/112/mode/2up

Madiba,

You find a synopsis of the approximate  patterns on page 112 in this book.


Wishing you a speedy recovery.

Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!

[bombus]

I was in hospital for 15 days a few years back, and other than family my only visitor was a friend from the casino.

He used to show up almost every night around dinner time and hang around until all the ward patients had their meals then he would pinch any meals left on the trolley and sit by my bed and stuff his face with the free food!

[Madiba]

Thanks Nathan
I have attached a screen shot of the results
How accurate is this and if we had to divide by 10 for 100 spin samples, would this be more or less what is 'expected'?  Is this like the 'Law of the 3rd' which is a given? It 'MUST' happen within 100 spins (within std dev)

With all this time at hand whilst recovering, my mind is curious to find out what this guy is doing. Let me look into and I will post my findings. He mentioned that the bankroll would be bust if he did not win in 42 spins. As mentioned previously, I have seen a maximum of 20 rbrbrb alternating sequence in even chances. Could this go to 42?


@bombus

My grand kids did most of the eating.

[Nathan Detroit]

Great  that you  published this particular section.

I have just send you a PM   how to BEAT a chop.


Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!

[MAX]

Madiba

I hope you get well soon.

Regards
Max

[KGB]

Roulette is a negative expectation game. -2.7% or -5.26% because of the zeros. This can't be avoided. Suppose you have 6 players playing all the EC's, you are still only covering 36 numbers. How long will it last before those zeros start to really eat away at your bankroll?

I'd be a little careful about 3rd party success stories in regards to the brother in-law player. There are no shortage of successful players out there, until you actually try track them down or get some actual information on the subject. The guy is retired with a hefty pension package, so for all you know he could go to the casino for a number of hours and make a few 25 dollar bets and leave. He might consider that professional even if he loses. My standards are a little higher when it comes to a professional player.

[A3on47]

Roulette is a negative expectation game. -2.7% or -5.26% because of the zeros. This can't be avoided.

My standards are a little higher when it comes to a professional player.

If the house edge can't be avoid and we all tend to loose, how do you define a professional gambler?
Someone who doesn't play? that's the only way to avoid the house edge

Cheers

[KGB]

Someone who doesn't play is what I would call a "Non-Gambler". House edge is always there and cannot be avoided. However there are exceptions. What I am talking about is a "Player's Edge".

Just for the sake of argument, suppose there was a 00 wheel that was biased to odd numbers because of double sided tape in each odd numbered pocket.

If Player A only plays odd he will have a player's edge that is say, 10% higher than the house edge giving him an advantage(15.26% - 5.26% = 10%).

If player B only plays even, he will have the house edge against him plus a negative player's edge giving him -20.52% on a 00 wheel.

If player C shows up and only bets on red, he will have a small player's edge due to having 10 odd numbers and only 8 even numbers, but the small edge will not be big enough to overcome the house edge. 15.26 / 18 =  0.848 edge per odd number. Multiplied by 2 for the 2 extra odd numbers gives player C a 1.696 players edge plus the house edge = -3.564 total edge

Player D only bets black and will have a small player's negative edge on top of the house edge giving him a total edge of -6.956.

Player E shows up to the wheel and bets completely randomly and doesn't seem to really favor any particular numbers. He will have just the house edge to worry about seeing as his bets are equal among the biased and non biased numbers.

Here we have 5 player's with 5 different results on the same wheel. But the house edge applies to ALL of them. Why? Because the payout structure is what defines the house edge. If the payout out was 37:1 per number then there would be no house edge. If it was 36:1 then it would be -2.7% house edge. Payouts dictate the house edge, conditions dictate the player's edge. This still doesn't take into account random fluctuations which happen all the time.

Player A could have no clue that the wheel is biased and could just be on the fortunate side of fate. But if he specifically noticed the double sided tape and took advantage of it, then he is exploiting the gaming device and conditions. To me, a professional player is able to notice the tape, notice the effects and understand them, calculate the edge it creates and create a proper bet sizing plan in accordance with Kelly criterion.

It's like asking what separates an amateur sports player from a professional. The difference isn't simply money, but a number of things like experience, consistency, proficiency, coaches, time spent training, time spent analyzing the game and opposition, as well as raw talent. I think the term professional is far too loosely used when it comes to gambling.

As much as I like the idea of a perfect staking plan to beat roulette I still have trouble with two key components.
- The house edge is still there as long as the zeros remain on the wheel whether you have one person or 6 people playing.
- There is no way to know if you have a player's edge as you are merely playing random fluctuations.

[Nathan Detroit]

If you wanna  dance you got to pay the fiddler.

[Nathan Detroit]

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