John's 2012 thread

[John Gold]

I was looking at a few different gambling forums over the last few days and this question about casino's cheating always pops up.

Here is a hypothetical situation:

The lottery in the UK has odds roughly about 13 million to 1 for winning the jackpot. The numbers range from 1 to 49.

So let's say I get 13 million players and I give them all 6 numbers each. Now my game comes with a twist. The person who wins the jackpot has to pay me 13 million.

The object of the game is NOT to win the jackpot. So Joe Bloggs numbers are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. If the first number out is 7, Joe is safe because he can't hit the jackpot. But some poor bugger is going to hit the jackpot because all the different permutations were distributed. Think about it! On some unlucky persons first attempt, they are going to hit odds of 13 million to one against. Anybody would likely think the game was rigged against them in such a situation.

If I were to keep repeating the draw every minute for the next 100 years, there would be some who would never hit the jackpot and they would be likely some who would hit it more than once. (bad karma and all that  )

I hope some of you can see the point I am making. A lot of gamblers are just going to be seriously unlucky and this could last for ages and others can be extremely lucky throughout their lifetime.

There was only one loser and 12,999,999 winners in my game. But that loser is going to feel awful sore and the losers are going to rack up slowly but surely over time.

Understanding how games of chance and probability work and accepting that fact after taking a bad beat should eliminate the need to feel cheated.

[revolver]

nice... i thought you posted the holy grail hehe

[progambler]

So you have 12,999,999 odds to win nothing and 1 to loose 13 millions.
Who would play a game where there is nothing to win ?

To be serious,I think you are confusing "Bad Luck" and rigged game.
Lottery is a fair game since you know the odds before to play and the odds are what we expect them to be.
The final combination does not change according to the numbers you choose.
With a rigged game,things are quite different.
You bet on red then the RNG generator sends a Black.
You bet on 35 numbers,then one of the 2 numbers you didn't choose will hit.
That's how it works with all RNG games !
Here is my story:
I was playing "Jack or Better" at a Playtech Casino (Vegas Red)
As a bot's coder I did a Bot playing for me the optimal strategy.
Then after 500,000 draws the return of the game was 87. 18% (Stats calculated by the Bot).
The expected return of this game is 99. 54% with optimal strategy (cf: Wizard of odds)
So would you say that I was just unlucky for 500,000 draws?
Or would you say the game is rigged?
I let you conclude

Regards

[John Gold]

My idea is kind of like a progression scenario.

There are 49 numbers on my roulette wheel. Someone will cover 48 of them and hope the odd one out does not hit.

However because all combinations are distributed, some unlucky person out of the 13 million is going to keep hitting the one number not covered 6 times in a row and lose. Now that person is going to think either it is rigged or he is the unluckiest person in the whole wide world. One of them is correct anyhow.

[progambler]

The probability to loose 6 times in a row is 0 (10^-44)
It is equivalent to get zero number 30 times in a row at roulette.
It never happened since this game exists
So it's impossible.

[Steve]

Its not impossible - just very, very rare. But that doesnt even remotely help you overcome the house edge and win roulette.

[John Gold]

I think I messed up my explanation a bit    But you kind of get the general idea. I think 99% of people that have bad luck do so because of the type of methods they play.

A lot of people on the betting exchanges complain every day that horseracing is bent. (it is as well) but the point is they can act as the bookmaker and lay anything they don't think is going to win. It's just too easy to blame the casino, croupier, jockey or the star alignment or whatever for playing like a chump in the first place.

[John Gold]

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