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Winning Roulette Systems - How to test your roulette strategy

Started by Steve, December 11, 2013, 01:47:14 AM

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Steve

The below text is part of my free roulette system course at nolinks://nolinks.roulettephysics.com. I've added it here because most testing is done incorrectly. More specifically, people tend to test the system in real-play instead of considering the actual working principles.

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We'd all like to make 100% guaranteed money. But playing roulette professionally is like any calculated investment. You can still make losses, although correct application produces long term steady profits. And like any business venture, it pays to do proper research before risking money.

Of course it's common sense to test your system throughly, but for most players, testing involves lots of real play and risking money. And when they've eventually lost a fortune, they conclude their system didn't work. It is much smarter to test without real money. That way you risk nothing but lost time.


Are your wins luck, or something else?
Again the most inefficient way is to apply it for real and consider how much you've won or lost. After all, this is "gambling" in every sense of the word. Additionally, you may be testing a statistically insignificant amount of spins. For example, let's say your system was simply betting red on every spin, and you profited over 500 spins. You may naturally assume your system of "just bet red" is great and has defeated roulette.

But the reality is ANY system can win over 500 spins. Statistically a system is more likely to lose, but if you considered 500 random spins, you may find 200 or them were black, and 300 were red. Does it mean your system is actually effective, or you were just lucky over a small sample of spins? And if hundreds of others also applied your system, would they achieve the same results?...

If you've done any significant statistical testing with roulette, you'd know even a guaranteed losing system can achieve profits over 10,000+ spins with a bit of luck.

On my roulette forums, almost always people try to test their system by actually applying it. This is the wrong way to do it because it would take years to "manually" test a statistically significant amount of spins.


How sure can you be?

Again no investment is 100% guaranteed. Nothing in life is ever guaranteed. Even if your system won $100,000 in 100 spins, it is still not complete assurance that your system is effective. There is still the chance it was LUCK.

"True knowledge exists in knowing that you know nothing." - Socrates

The reality is the more spins you have tested, the greater the statistical confidence you have that your system is effective. In other words, if you profit after 1,000 spins, you may be 60% sure your system beats roulette in the long term. Or if you profit after 10,000 spins, you may be 80% sure. And if you profit after 100,000 spins, you may be 95% sure. But you can never, never be 100% sure, in much the same way you can never be 100% sure you will win.

Over the years, many players have told me they have a system that beats roulette, and that they have been profiting for 6 months or more. Some players give the basics of their system, and I may explain why it will eventually fail. But the player continues to use their system. Then some time later, I hear back from the player telling me I was right and the system eventually failed. My point is that short-term winnings are an illusion of a genuine winning system. Even thousands of spins is still short-term, and anything can happen in the short-term.

Another way of explaining it is the casino always has winners and losers. There are just more losers than winners. Do the winners have a legtimately effective system? In the vast majority of cases, NO.

So the more spins you profit over, the higher the probability that your system actually works and that your winnings were not just luck.

The right way to test your system

First understand the only way to beat roulette is by INCREASING THE ACCURACY OF PREDICTIONS. This is explained at nolinks.genuinewinner.com/truth/ - And this can only be done by applying the only laws the determine where the ball lands, known as PHYSICS.

Here are the keys to proper testing:

1. Test the PRINCIPLE by which you are increasing the accuracy of predictions: a "working principle" is much easier to test over very large volumes of spins. For example, if your system is "wait for 10 reds in a row then bet black", then you would need to test hundreds of thousands of spins where 10 reds have spun consecutively, and then determine if the probability of black spinning next is any different to normal.

2. Individually consider the elements of the physical behavior you are modelling: For example, if you are evaluating a roulette computer device, then you may want to see if it can accurately predict where on the wheel the ball will first hit. After all if it can't do this, then the roulette computer couldn't be effective. And if the computer can do this with very high accuracy, then you will need far fewer spins to assess whether your profits are due to luck, or an accurate roulette computer.

Ultimately if your approach to testing is effecient, then you can know if your system is likely to be effective without relying on luck, and profitable, without needing to risk a lot of time and money. And you can do it in far fewer spins.

How my JAA roulette system is tested

My roulette system searches for numerous patterns that occur on every roulette wheel to some degree. When you input data into the software, such as previous spins, it determines two main variables:

Variable 1 - Pattern strength: The stronger patterns are, the easier the wheel is to beat

Variable 2 - Rating Reliability: If you test over just a few spins and your data is not very high quality, then the "pattern strength" rating won't be "reliable".

The page at nolinks://nolinks.roulettephysics.com/profitability-report/ explains how you can send me data about your wheel, and my software will tell us the two ratings for your wheel. You can read this page to understand how the rating system of my software works, and how it tells you whether or not you can safely bet on a particular wheel. The rating system is a very reliable way of knowing if you are wasting your time on a wheel, or it is likely to produce consistent profit.

Steve

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