Hello all,
"
It happens only once in a million bets. You'll never make one million bets in your lifetime!"
You've heard it before?
Sure you have.
But do you know what's really enlightening in that statement?

That the one who said it uses probability but doesn't know what probability really is!Probability may say that an event only happens once in a million bets.
And that may be correct.
BUT!
It doesn't say
ANYTHING about
WHEN that event will happen.
It may happen right now or it may happen "never in your lifetime".
But we don't know.
Let me give you an example.
Suppose that one thousand and one hundred (1,100) of the members of this board made (OK  recorded) one thousand spins/bets each.
1,100 members x 1,000 bets = 1,100,000 bets in total.
1,000 bets isn't much for one person.
So I made 1,100 sequences of 1,000 RNG singlezero results and counted
losing sequences for the even chances.
To lose RED means a sequence of BLACK and ZERO.
To lose BLACK means a sequence of RED and ZERO.
I checked all six bets and for each sample, I recorded the longest losing sequences.
The WORST LOSING SEQUENCES in 1,000 RNG spins(1,100 samples of 1,000 spins = 1,100,000 spins checked)
[table=,]
Length, L Blk, L Red, L Hgh, L Low, L Evn, L Odd
6, 12, 12, 10, 11, 7, 13
7, 101, 94, 85, 76, 78, 77
8, 249, 196, 224, 210, 252, 225
9, 249, 284, 254, 299, 262, 289
10, 204, 200, 215, 201, 226, 191
11, 124, 136, 149, 127, 134, 137
12, 79, 71, 72, 86, 71, 79
13, 35, 47, 47, 38, 35, 46
14, 23, 25, 28, 24, 15, 21
15, 9, 20, 10, 9, 12, 11
16, 11, 11, 3, 11, 4, 5
17, 3, 4, 3, 2, 3, 4
18, 1, , , 5, 1, 1
19, , , , , ,
20, , , , , ,
21, , , , 1, , 1
[/table]
Example: In 94 samples, the worst losing sequence betting Red was 7 consecutive losses.
As you can see; some were very lucky getting only a rather short losing sequence, like 6 or 7.
But quite a lot got quite unhealthy lengths... And that's not good...
Note especially the
21sequences  thats a 1 / 1,197,872 chance that one such will appear!
And this unfortunate member had only 1,000 bets to make!
That's not even ONE PER MILLE.
But think of it: We checked 1,100,000 spins...
Do you see the connection?
 BUT THAT'S
RNGSPINS!
As I know that someone at some point sooner or later will point that out, I also did this:
I took all the spins I have from Wiesbaden (table #3, April 1 2003 to July 31 2008) and Hamburg (Table #1, 1 Jan 2001 to Dec 31 2005)
That is a total of 1,145,828 spins.
So the number of spins are approximately the same as the RNGspins...
But this time I checked DAY BY DAY instead of 1,000spins chunks.
In total I checked 3,689 days.
Making an average of 311 spins/chunk instead of 1,000. One third, approximately.
Here you are:
The WORST LOSING SEQUENCES IN ONE DAY at Hamburg and Wiesbaden(1,145,828 spins in 3,689 days checked)
[table=,]
Length, L Blk, L Red, L Hgh, L Low, L Evn, L Odd
2, , , , , , 1
3, , 2, , 1, , 1
4, 26, 21, 26, 20, 24, 28
5, 244, 222, 224, 228, 231, 236
6, 693, 674, 630, 631, 635, 630
7, 877, 902, 900, 866, 929, 932
8, 721, 724, 775, 724, 752, 757
9, 532, 495, 461, 541, 475, 508
10, 288, 291, 292, 338, 304, 284
11, 166, 172, 181, 164, 147, 145
12, 68, 85, 80, 90, 95, 86
13, 39, 60, 53, 36, 56, 39
14, 19, 25, 35, 23, 23, 23
15, 8, 7, 18, 12, 9, 13
16, 3, 5, 5, 7, 4, 3
17, 1, , 4, 5, 3, 1
18, 1, 1, 3, , , 2
19, 1, 3, , 2, 2,
20, 1, , 1, , ,
21, 1, , 1, 1, ,
[/table]
Example: In 222 days, the worst losing sequence betting Red was 5 consecutive losses.
Do you notice?
There are STILL 21long losing sequences! But now there are THREE OF THEM!
And the checked sequences were only
311 spins in average...
And what about all those short sequences  5 and shorter?
Why are they so many when we check livespins?
The average of 311 spins instead of 1,000 makes us find all those shorter sequences.
If I make a new RNG run but use 3689 sets of 311 spins (the same as the average live days), I get this table:
[table=,]
Length, L Blk, L Red, L Hgh, L Low, L Evn, L Odd
3, , 1, , , ,
4, 12, 13, 12, 10, 11, 12
5, 196, 182, 211, 182, 186, 203
6, 665, 676, 647, 692, 655, 637
7, 915, 916, 951, 901, 890, 909
8, 766, 775, 727, 795, 808, 747
9, 545, 551, 524, 495, 478, 523
10, 309, 272, 271, 306, 308, 320
11, 145, 138, 149, 133, 173, 157
12, 64, 84, 96, 81, 78, 73
13, 34, 30, 54, 41, 41, 66
14, 26, 25, 22, 28, 31, 16
15, 6, 14, 12, 15, 16, 14
16, 1, 9, 7, 6, 7, 4
17, 2, , 3, 2, 4, 5
18, , , 2, 1, 1, 1
19, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2
20, , 2, , , 1,
21, 1, , , , ,
[/table]
Example: In 182 samples, the worst losing sequence betting Red was 5 consecutive losses.
Do you think live spins differ very much from RNG?
But now...
Prepare!How many bets do we
REALLY HAVE TO WAIT for that "never in a lifetime" event?
I supposed betting on HIGH (on a singlezero wheel) and counted how many results I saw until a sequence of 21 losses appeared.
To find 21 unspecified 18/37
losses is  as said above  a 1 / 1,197,872 chance. Mathematically.
That means I SHOULD have to wait, in average, something like
2.3 million trials before a 21sequence of
HIGH losses would appear.
Mathematically.
Well, I counted until I had found 50,000 such losses.
(I was aming at 1 million but I realised that only finding 10,000 was more than 6 hours computer time... 50,000 losing sequences meant a total of 113,279,546,087 trials )BTW!50,000 sequences giving a total of 113,279,546,087 trials is an average of
2,265,590 trials/sequence.
For how long did I say, above, should I
mathematically have to wait for 21 High losses?
The results:
Waiting trials before the "never in your lifetime" event starts(Counting spins between sequences of 21 consecutive losses on the "High" bet)
Wait Interval Sequence of
From  To 21losses
1 < 1K 27 <== Shortest = 135 spins!
1K < 2K 29
2K < 3K 12
3K < 4K 18
4K < 5K 15
5K < 6K 19
6K < 7K 16
7K < 8K 16
8K < 9K 25
9K < 10K 15
10K < 20K 210
20K < 30K 201
30K < 40K 208
40K < 50K 225
50K < 60K 216
60K < 70K 203
70K < 80K 185
80K < 90K 179
90K < 100K 203
100K < 200K 1,972
200K < 300K 1,909
300K < 400K 1,802
400K < 500K 1,754
500K < 600K 1,743
600K < 700K 1,620
700K < 800K 1,616
800K < 900K 1,523
900K < 1M 1,545
1M < 2M 11,579
2M < 3M 7,418
3M < 4M 4,809
4M < 5M 3,052
5M < 6M 2,028
6M < 7M 1,488
7M < 8M 926
8M < 9M 514
9M < 10M 318
10M  .... 459
So much for "
It happens only once in a million spins and you will never place one million bets in your lifetime!"
It CAN happen after 135 spins!
I hope you can see now, that a very small probability of something to happen, doesn't prevent it from happening NOW.
And many times it does.
Now you have been warned.So don't be surprised
when the s**t hits the fan!
KFS